Don't know Cyc but I do know you can't rate a horse on what it has beaten and in what type of race. Well you can, and some do, but it means very little unless the clock backs it up. As Phil Bull once said (not the exact quote) "any rating a horse achieves doesn't reflect how good it is; it reflects how bad it isn't"
Classics Betting Update, News, Opinion
- Thread starter Grendel
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Strangest race. One of the few things that was confirmed by the race is that Kameko does not quite stay 12 f. Its a shame he was not entered in the French Derby.
Serpentine could well have been the best horse in the race and by some way. He improved with every start and was clearly progressing fast. It still takes a bit of believing that he won his maiden 7 days before winning the biggest event in Flat racing. A modest Listed winner has finished second and a maiden has edged out the Guineas winner for third.
I am not here to say that people cannot enjoy a race for that it is. I would probably have been euphoric for Serpentine myself but I cannot become a cheerleader when the winning connections are strangling Racing with massive entries and winning almost everything in sight.
For me, the result would have been better if Andrew Balding had saddled the winner with a Guineas horse doing the double, or if English King had done it for the little guy in Ed Walker. Instead we had another success for the Juggernaut crushing through the racing world and becoming ubiquitous in the winner's enclosure.
If you are not punting it makes it easier to watch races and have no real concern about who wins but when you are trying to pit your wits, even for small stakes, you have to use some methodology to make your selections. I have a pet hate of Racing Media that inflates horse's reputations and effectively gives punters a bum steer. I also feel that jockeys and trainers are also seen as infallible by some people but they make mistakes just like everyone else and I feel this should be drawn attention to in order to consider it for future reference.
I feel I have been dressed down here and I must say that although I disagree with some people from time to time, I do not criticise the way they go about their contributing to the forum. I reserve the right to feel the way I do about any given race and in the case of the Derby, if people have enjoyed the 25/1 winner, 50/1 second and 66/1 third and believe that the form will stack up then that is their prerogative. I also respect if people believe in the Stopwatch but the clock was of no help whatsoever in identifying this year's Derby winner, with English King coming in with a Topspeed rating of 103 and the winner only rated 62 on the same scale. Runner up Khalifa Sat came in with a Topspeed of 50 and the third had a Stopwatch figure of 46, so the clock played zero role in identifying that humongous Tricast.
Kameko is being talked about as a Sussex possible now on the way to the Juddmonte. If Serpentine were not in the Derby, Kameko would have been a third beaten a half length and a nose. He would have beaten the Lingfield Derby trial winner and Aidan's leading colts. Not bad if he patently failed to stay. I reckon Gosden should have run Mishriff, who won today's French version. Given where Kameko finished as a non-stayer today's winner would surely have had a chance. He certainly couldn't have been as bad as the one Gosden did run.
Best of luck going forward people, with whatever method you choose to follow.
I will analyse and muse to myself from now on.
I am not here to say that people cannot enjoy a race for that it is. I would probably have been euphoric for Serpentine myself but I cannot become a cheerleader when the winning connections are strangling Racing with massive entries and winning almost everything in sight.
For me, the result would have been better if Andrew Balding had saddled the winner with a Guineas horse doing the double, or if English King had done it for the little guy in Ed Walker. Instead we had another success for the Juggernaut crushing through the racing world and becoming ubiquitous in the winner's enclosure.
If you are not punting it makes it easier to watch races and have no real concern about who wins but when you are trying to pit your wits, even for small stakes, you have to use some methodology to make your selections. I have a pet hate of Racing Media that inflates horse's reputations and effectively gives punters a bum steer. I also feel that jockeys and trainers are also seen as infallible by some people but they make mistakes just like everyone else and I feel this should be drawn attention to in order to consider it for future reference.
I feel I have been dressed down here and I must say that although I disagree with some people from time to time, I do not criticise the way they go about their contributing to the forum. I reserve the right to feel the way I do about any given race and in the case of the Derby, if people have enjoyed the 25/1 winner, 50/1 second and 66/1 third and believe that the form will stack up then that is their prerogative. I also respect if people believe in the Stopwatch but the clock was of no help whatsoever in identifying this year's Derby winner, with English King coming in with a Topspeed rating of 103 and the winner only rated 62 on the same scale. Runner up Khalifa Sat came in with a Topspeed of 50 and the third had a Stopwatch figure of 46, so the clock played zero role in identifying that humongous Tricast.
Kameko is being talked about as a Sussex possible now on the way to the Juddmonte. If Serpentine were not in the Derby, Kameko would have been a third beaten a half length and a nose. He would have beaten the Lingfield Derby trial winner and Aidan's leading colts. Not bad if he patently failed to stay. I reckon Gosden should have run Mishriff, who won today's French version. Given where Kameko finished as a non-stayer today's winner would surely have had a chance. He certainly couldn't have been as bad as the one Gosden did run.
Best of luck going forward people, with whatever method you choose to follow.
I will analyse and muse to myself from now on.
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Highest Ground shortening for the Dante after Mishriff flattered Waldkonigs Newmarket race again.
Don't be so touchy Grendel. You can be a bit of a kill joy occasionally but we appreciate the effort you put in. You carry on mate, you are a good poster
Interesting watching the side by side videos of the Oaks and Derby. At 6f out the fillies were a length or so ahead but by 3f out Serpentine had gone 3 lengths past them. It appears the killer injection of speed came in between 5f out and 3f out. In simple terms Serpentine came down the hill and around the corner as if he did it every day, and lengths better than any other horse in the race. The placed horses (with the possible exception of Khalifa Sat) either lay out of their ground or didn't come down the hill at all well.
I think with what they were then faced with was like asking Michael Johnson to run at Usain Bolt speed for 60 metres (300 to 360) in a 400m race. Even he couldn't do that, he wouldn't finish and those horses didn't really finish. It's likely Kameko didn't stay but his effort to close on the leader from 3f to the furlong pole finished him. The likes of Mogul etc. didn't even have his ability to do that. It was noticeable that Khalifa Sat ran on to regain 2nd as every other horse (with the exception of English King) had shot their bolt in that 3f to furlong pole dash.
Having said all that I think we saw an enormous talent in Serpentine. He was an Epsom natural and hopefully with his ability to mature and improve he could be the bright star amongst the colts this year. People keep comparing it with Slip Anchor, maybe, but remember Slip Anchor didn't win another race. I hope he's more like Reference Point who basically led all the way but didn't pull away like Serpentine.
Aidan has a replica gallop of Epsom down in Ballydoyle which helps the horses learn how to handle the undulations and turns. Serpentine and Love obviously getting top marks for doing the best homework.
As an aside to the win, maybe Serpentine's effort came as a bit of a surprise to the AOB team. I read somewhere that this was only the 9th ride of the year for Emmet McNamara who had not tasted a victory since the end of last year. If Serpentine was the "pea", wouldn't the stable have put on a more senior rider? He was Champion Irish Apprentice in 2018, but this was a huge step up for the young man.
Listen, we say to all the lads there's not much difference in any of the horses so they end up drawing straws for who rides what. It's a team effort and listen we would be lost without the team, Mary who makes the cakes, Eileen who does the power washing, they're all a fantastic bunch, it's not about who rides what, it's about the staff and all the lads in the yard, they are all terrific, listen.
You dont need the data to see what happened here. It was like a conveyor belt in the straight, usually multiple horses give way at that stage in the Derby but they all just stayed on because they had went so slow behind the ignored ostensible pacemaker. None of the top 3 finishers are in the top 3 horses from the race, its just a stonecold false race, total throwout.
English King will be the best of them at 12f+ and Kameko will be the best at 10f.
English King will be the best of them at 12f+ and Kameko will be the best at 10f.
Pinatubo 5/1 for the Sussex with Paddy Power looks a great bet, its Too Darn Hot all over again, he was extremely precocious and the others have caught up with him but hes still a good horse and the Sussex looks the ideal race for him. It looks the right race for Siskin as well but his Irish Guineas form is muck, the St James Palace was much higher class event and the prices are surely wrong here.
I see some talk that Love would have won the Derby, absolute nonsense. Yes it was physically possible but there is no way Ryan Moore would have randomly started chasing the leader much earlier than everyone else in the pack, it just doesnt happen in races where there is an ignored leader. Think Queally in the St James Palace, went after the pacemaker much earlier than the pack and almost got the best horse of all time beaten. 99 times out of 100 that ignored horse in front is a no hoper going too fast but this time it happened to be a decent horse going an even pace.
Yep. The only thing that puzzles me is that as he was not going very fast early on, why didn't they keep up? Was it Steve Cauthen who had a clock in his head. Some of these jockeys should have known their mount enough to know what pace to go regardless of what the other jockeys were doing. In this instance it makes me wonder if English King might have been better off with his usual jockey. Basically, all the jockeys were fooled into watching the wrong horse(s). I understand why jockeys let horses go away in front if they are going a suicidal pace but this one wasn't. Major cock ups all round I reckon