Classics Betting Update, News, Opinion

In the hope that we do actually get some Classics on the Flat this season, I thought I would do a round up on the betting changes, snippets of relevant news and offer my own opinions as to the chances of the main contenders in the market at the moment.

2000 Guineas

Last year's 2YO talent seemed to lie in the Colts who might get a mile this season and the outstanding 2YO of the season, Pinatubo, is heading a 2000 Guineas field where his most unexposed and potentially dangerous rivals have some stamina doubts.

Pinatubo is very short for the 2000 Guineas and probably could win it with a performance 2 or 3 lbs short of his form from last year. Further progress is very limited given he is already close to the ceiling set by the greatest in history, so it may be more about standing still, or not regressing much, for him.

Earthlight is a stamina doubt for me and the trends from the races he won last year do not read well for the following year's Guineas. Siskin is another 6F horse and I feel he needs a stone to reach Pinatubo's level. The form through Aidan O'Brien's Monarch Of Egypt leaves Siskin plenty to find with both Pinatubo and Earthlight, so he is a huge lay for me at a general 12/1. I cannot have Earthlight either and I suspect that he may be rerouted to avoid a clash with Pinatubo. Victor Ludorum is not to be underestimated in my opinion and he is pretty solid in the betting. Also an unbeaten son of Shamardal, Victor Ludorum's odds would collapse into a clear 2nd Fav if he was given the nod for Newmarket.

John Gosden's Palace Pier made an excellent debut before following up with a comfortable win next time. He would have contested better races but was injured before he could take up those engagements. Betting on the Guineas has seen him nibbled in and he could be Group class for sure. Sire Kingman was also injured after his 2nd 2YO start and it will remain a mystery to me that he didn't win the 2000 Guineas in an otherwise unbeaten career. It didn't help that I was on Kingman at 9/1 for the race and had a SF with Night Of Thunder on the day. It's still a bogey race for Gosden and at 14/1 you would be taking on trust that Palace Pier is over his problems and has progressed enough to be a serious player.

Aidan O'Brien had no real outstanding performer last season. His Guineas and Derby colts were all much of a muchness really, tightly rated at a bit below what you would be looking for. I thought Armory might be the one to develop into his leading colt but I thought the cat was out of the bag with him after a workmanlike success in a Futurity Stakes that looked below average. In the end they raced him too much and he was thrashed in a match with German horse Alson, who has moved to Andre Fabre since. The Guineas betting suggests that Arizona is O'Brien's leading chance and that has to be a bit worrying, given that the colt is exposed, has been behind Pinatubo twice and probably had one race too many at the Breeder's Cup. Arizona is not yet proven at a mile and he makes no appeal to me at a general 14/1.

Conclusion:-

Pinatubo has the form but he is a ripe for stalling at some stage this season. I would say that the longer it takes to get the 2000 Guineas run, the more chance one or two from last season will catch up with him. Time could be his biggest enemy. I would say that Palace Pier remains with potential but Victor Ludorum seems the best value at 16/1 given his profile and the fact that he has Group 1 form in the bag sways it his way. Earthlight, Siskin and Arizona look the poorest of the leading contenders in terms of value. Military March was said to be going straight to the Guineas well before the current hiatus but he has generally been regarded as more of a Derby sort and it will be a tough ask to tackle Pinatubo as a seasonal opener. If he were to win the 2000 Guineas he would be as short as a carrot for the Derby.

1000 Guineas

I felt that we had a moderate crop of fillies last season and serious Guineas contenders looked a bit thin on the ground. Etoile made a promising start for Aidan O'Brien but got injured and missed her intended run in the Albany at Royal Ascot. We did see her again but she didn't seem the same. I also thought that Godolphin had a decent type in Summer Romance but they decided to take on real sprinters in 5F fillies in the 6F Princess Margaret and she flopped at odds on there before another defeat at 6F later in the season. She was mightily impressive on her second start but perhaps was just a precocious sort. Albigna impressed me most as a filly for the future last season and she got her reward in the Prix Marcel Boussac. The trip to the Breeders Cup was one too many in my opinion but she ran well at a track where the ground was not going to suit. She was my big ante-post hope for this race and the jockey singled her out as having done best physically of Harrington's fillies over the winter. Sadly, a knife to the heart soon followed when the trainer singled out Millisle as her horse for the Newmarket Guineas. The thinking seems to be that Millisle has already won at the track but I cannot escape the thought that Millisle is a sprinter and I cannot see her getting a mile. Albigna was suggested as possibly going for the French 1000 Guineas and the betting seems to be suggesting that she won't be coming to Newmarket. That's a pity, as I felt she was one of the few with the credentials to run a massive race. Quadrilateral is firming up at as low as 7/2 now but there is a niggle for me that on good ground she may just lack a bit of toe. Trained by Roger Charlton, I feel any delay may help her cause because the trainer often seems a bit tardy at readying one for the early Classics. Unlike Pinatubo, time may be her friend.

Conclusion:-

Nowhere near the strength or potential of the 2000 Guineas, the fillies race is disappointing and uninspiring for me. It stands out like a sore thumb that Aidan O'Brien has next to nothing in the first wave of the betting and that Love is his first filly on the list at 20/1. The daughter of Galileo did win the Moyglare but I don't think Albigna ran her race that day and Love was beaten four times in seven starts last year, including being behind Quadrilateral in the Fillies Mile and it is hard to make a case for her progressing more than the Charlton filly this year. The race may be ripe for a big priced winner this season and with that in mind I was drawn to Andre Fabre's Tropbeau at 33/1. The daughter of Showcasing did not excel on debut over an extended 5F but soon bagged three 7F races, including the Group 2 Calvados. I felt it was a bad idea dropping her back to 6F to face the speedsters in the Cheveley Park and she was outpaced before being short of room when staying on well in the closing stages. She just failed to pip the very decent Raffle Prize for second and unlike her and winner Millisle, she has won at 7F and looks like she should get a mile. 33/1 looks huge compared to Quadrilateral at 5/1 given that there is only 4 lbs difference on Racing Post Ratings thus far. Of course Tropbeau may stay in France but I think that they would be missing the chance to win a very mediocre looking Newmarket version. I've resigned myself to Albigna not running in this race and if she is going to France, that is another reason Fabre should be thinking about Newmarket for Tropbeau.

The Derby

It has become something of a trend with Aidan O'Brien that he has several Derby types who are very tightly packed in terms of ratings as 2YOs. This season seems to echo that pattern with Mogul his leading hope in the Derby betting but rated just 110 on OR, 109 on RPR and he didn't even make the Top 20 on Timeform Figures, although that was dominated by speedier types. Mogul was no match for Kameko in the rescheduled Futurity at Newcastle and he needs to improve a good bit for stepping up to 12F in order to be a player in the Derby. The betting suggests he is Aidan's leading hope but 12/1 is no value to my eyes.

This race sees Pinatubo a narrow and tentative favourite but I can't have him as a Derby horse. Fast enough to win the Woodcote at Epsom, the Derby will be double the 6F trip he covered that day. A brilliant 2YO but like the Guineas, the later the Derby is run will let his rivals catch up with him. I couldn't back him at all for the Derby, even if a Guineas win would see him as short as a carrot.

Kameko has been solid all winter and will likely be favourite shortly. He landed the Futurity in good style but I think it was a weak renewal where the much vaunted new Pegasus Kinross went off favourite but could only manage 6th place. Promising sort though Kameko is his previous run in the Royal Lodge was a bit disappointing when pipped by Royal Dornoch and his narrow defeat behind Positive took a knock when that horse was a flop in the Dewhurst. I must admit that the official handicapper has had a brain fart with Positive's run in the Dewhurst. Beaten more than 11 lengths, the Racing Post had him running 16 lbs below his previous mark of 109 on just 93, somehow the Official Handicapper managed to RAISE Positive 4 lbs to 113. Clearly someone is very wrong there. Andrew Balding has had a few who were fancied for Derby glory but it has not panned out for him thus far and I don't see Kameko as any value shaping as a general 8/1 shot with most firms now.

Military March has been rock solid all winter and steadily nibbled in to what is 10/1 and 12/1 across the boards. SkyBet are best now on 16/1. Military March landed a Newmarket maiden on debut but it was winning the Autumn Stakes that saw him go quite prominent in the Derby betting. Usually it is Charlie Appleby who seems to get the best Godolphin talent these days but Bin Suroor has the son of New Approach and he looks to be the trainer's best prospect for a while. I would not be sure Military March would get 12F but they do say that if you have certain stamina for Epsom, you probably lack enough toe. Military March is a good looking type who seems sure to progress well from two to three. Godolphin stated quite early that they probably would not take him to Meydan for the Carnival and later announced he would start his season in the 2000 Guineas. The worry I have is that Pinatubo retains enough ability to make Military March's task a Fools Errand and it would then probably lead to Military March trying to regain the winning thread in the Dante, assuming that race is run this year. Looking at his Autumn Stakes win, the favourite Molatham seemed uneasy in the betting that day and the soft ground may not have suited him. Solid marker horse Ropey Guest was well beaten in third but he is a 100 horse at best and he had a few hummers in a season where he ran 10 times without winning. The runner up Al Suhail casts a shadow over the form because it wasn't the first time he has travelled like the winner only to end up defeated. On debut he managed to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and even with the hood fitted thereafter he again seemed to be going best behind Positive but ended up third as Kameko also came through to pip him for second. Certainly one of the most interesting contenders but enough question marks at the odds now for me.

Waldkonig has also been popular in the Derby betting of late. The son of Kingman won an egg and spoon race from trees at Wolverhampton but he thrashed them nine lengths after his jockey had to extricate him because the rest were going too slow for him. It seemed clear that further would suit him and although there is a lack of stamina in Kingman's side the colt is a half brother to Arc winner Waldgeist and the dam's sire Monsun has stamina in his index. John Gosden has kept it low key regarding Waldkonig and he mentioned starting out in novice company this year. I had an ante-post bet on the horse in the belief that although he beat nothing, he was the sort of horse who would only go one way in the betting this spring. He is a colt who probably would need time and I think it will benefit the horse the longer the Derby takes to actually be run. Plenty to prove but a winning re-appearance and a nod from the trainer would see him single figures for the Derby. Some commented on his high knee action at Wolverhampton but sometimes these observations seem to be overplayed. I recall a horse years ago called J Cheever Loophole and John Francome said on channel 4 that the horse would not go a yard on soft ground with his low action. Francome looked a right berk as the horse sluiced home by something like six lengths on the heavy over 5F. Much more needed from Waldkonig but Rab Havlin seemed impressed with him and the market vibes have been good for a Derby with no real solid candidate and numerous non stayers in the list.

Conclusion:-

Even before the Covid-19 hiatus, I felt this was a season where an unraced at 2YO colt emerged and went on to win at Epsom. Given the lack of a clear favourite and a bunch of O'Brien colts who looked of a similar, mediocre, level, I reckon that a later developer may emerge to trump them all. There are plenty of well bred colts yet to see a racecourse and the later running of the Derby gives them more time than normal to reel in the best of last year's staying types.

Of the darker sorts who have raced, there has been interest in Brentford Hope from the Richard Hughes stable and Highest Ground from the more familiar territory of Michael Stoute's yard. Both colts ran once and won in the style of horses with plenty more to come. The trouble is that Richard Hughes is going into uncharted territory as a trainer and it seems that every year we have a once raced Michael Stoute colt who becomes the subject of support for the Derby. Sir Michael is pretty much peerless as a Derby trainer but his glory days are a bit behind him now and he does have a tendency to be patient, rather than rush a horse to the Derby.

I will stay with Waldkonig for now and respect Military March even if I would have preferred him not to take on the best colts of the generation in the Guineas. The Derby entries look a lot less intimidating and a starting point of something like the Feilden in a normal year before going to the Dante would have been a better progression to my eyes.

The Oaks

Often the trickiest Classic to bet on ante-post, The Oaks has been won by some fairly moderate performers in some cases. Enable was a clear exception to that trend but last season's winner Anapurna was more mediocre and I feel she was probably a 110 rated filly in reality, finishing well behind stablemate Star Catcher who was probably the most progressive and talented 3YO filly of last season. I have to say that there was a dearth of really exciting fillies in the staying type races of last season's 2YO program.

Quadrilateral is favourite in the ante-post lists and as favourite for the Guineas she would become mega short to complete the double if landing the first leg. In winning the Fillies Mile she had to work hard from a fair way out and she only just reeled in the now injured Powerful Breeze. That race may have suggested that the Oaks would be within her grasp and in a year lacking a serious contender she had to be favourite given her Guineas position. Dam Nimble Thimble was moderate herself and Quadrilateral is already her best progeny by some way. I would be a bit concerned if there were enough stamina on that side of the pedigree. As short as 7/1 for The Oaks she seems skinny for me but the 10/1 available with SkyBet would look massive if she landed the Guineas. Not for me though, so what of the opposition?

Powerful Breeze is quoted in a couple of places but the trainer has said they will be aiming for an autumn campaign with her, so unless the Oaks is run in September it looks unlikely she will run.

Domino Darling is second favourite and strong in the betting at 12/1. Trained by William Haggas and by Golden Horn, the filly made a winning debut in a late October maiden over a mile at Doncaster. The ground was heavy that day and Domino Darling only just prevailed by a neck. Winners have come from a race where the first two pulled clear by over 4 lengths and Domino Darling clocked a figure of 85 on RPRs, a rating not far removed from Golden Horn himself in a similar late season maiden. In the "Could be anything" mould, it might be a point of concern to note that the runner up in that maiden, Gold Wand, is also by Golden Horn and she was only beaten a neck, having gone into the race as favourite. One could argue that the Varian trained filly might get revenge on better ground but there is a lot less stamina on the Dam side compared to Domino Darling. Considering that I got 33/1 on Taghrooda after her very similar debut, I could not bring myself to back Domino Darling at 12/1 given the scenarios were nigh on identical.

Born With Pride is next in most lists and she is an almost identical prospect for trainer William Haggas. By Born To Sea she was unfancied at 20/1 for the Melrose Stakes but defied the odds in getting up by a neck. Awarded 101 by the Racing Post for winning the Listed race it reads like an excellent performance on the face of it but it was the 2nd of November and the ground was heavy. Yardstick horse Run Wild was having her 6th start and didn't run to her 105 OR in my opinion on the day. I can't escape the notion that the late season race may not stand up and is she really 16 lbs ahead of Domino Darling on Racing Post figures? I can't be a player at 16/1, far less at the 12/1 she is in a lot of places now.

Love is again Aidan O'Brien's first filly in the betting here. We discussed her chances in the Guineas section and although Aidan is often known to promote how far some of the Galileo offspring will stay beyond the expectations Love had a campaign that did not suggest that. She ran over 7F on her first six starts, only stepping up to the mile in her final race of the season. The dam Pikaboo was modest and raced at shorter trips herself most of her progeny have also raced at shorter than the Oaks trip. The Galileo effect seems evident in that full sisters Flattering and Peach Tree raced at longer trips but I can't escape the feeling that so many runs at 7F as a 2YO point to Love being a mile to 10F filly at most. She is too exposed to interest me at 20/1.

Khayzaraan made little impact on debut when 9th in a 6F maiden at Deauville in July. The daughter of Kingman was seen in a much better light when upped to a mile at the same track a month later and she fairly spreadeagled her field that day. Kept to fairly moderate company on her third and final start of the season, Khayzaraan went off 1/2 Fav and won comfortably but the form of that race has not panned out as anything to write home about and the Racing Post rating for that win was actually lower than her previous start on just 95, compared to 97 in her previous race. For me, I would be wanting a filly to clock something at least 10 lbs higher on her third start of the 2YO season. To put it into perspective, Born With Pride earned a better rating on her debut and Khayzaraan has plenty of ground to make up, sitting about a stone behind Love on ratings thus far. Given that Freddy Head doesn't bring them over to our shores very often, Khayzaraan makes no appeal at all for the Oaks and it is no surprise that many firms are not even quoting her for the race.

Peaceful is generally next in the betting and fairly commonly for Galileo progeny she showed little on her first start when 9th in a maiden. Like many other Galileo 2YOs she took a big step forward on her second start when sluicing home in a Thurles maiden race. Her final start of the season was another leap forward based on the Racing Post ratings for her three races but that was a narrow second behind Born With Pride in the Melrose Stakes and I have already mentioned I am dubious about that race. Peaceful's dam is yet to produce a good one from two full brothers and a full sister to Peaceful and although she was decent herself when with Jean-Claude Rouget her best offspring so far have been at least a stone behind her best RPR of 116. Overall she is not one I want to be with for the Oaks.

Fancy Blue is a more exciting looking prospect to my eyes. Unlike the many Galileo clones who seem to need their first race badly, the daughter of Deep Impact made a winning start at Naas over 7F. Saxon Warrior also made a winning start for the Deep Impact/Aidan O'Brien combination and he went on to win the 2000 Guineas. Fancy Blue then went to the Curragh and stepped up to Listed company where she stayed on strongly for a narrow win. That win came from a well exposed filly in A New Dawn but given that it was Fancy Blue's second start and that the ground was soft, it was an encouraging performance. Watching the race back recently I noted that Fancy Blue came from last place and visually it looked a bit of a sprint finish where she looked likely to fail to get up but she got there just in time. There were signs of greenness and she looked sure to benefit from stepping up to 10F plus. She has now left Aidan O'Brien to be trained by his son Donnacha and I am wondering if this is in the hope that they can give his new career an early boost. Something about Fancy Blue makes me think she may develop into a top quality filly and I have had a bet at 25/1 for the Oaks in the hope that she will be more likely to run there for her new trainer than perhaps for the proven master and his legions.

Albigna pops up next on many lists and having won the Bouusac over a mile on soft ground you might get some encouragement for staying the Oaks trip. The pedigree says otherwise though and although the Dam herself stayed that far she has so far been bred with Oasis Dream three times and now Zoffany. Zoffany is probably most famous for giving Frankel the fright of his life in the St James Palace at Royal Ascot, where he closed on the great one late on to become the only horse to ever get within a length of arguably the best horse ever to grace a racecourse. Albigna had enough speed to win a Group 2 over 6F and I just can't see her lasting out the Oaks trip. She has to be a big lay for me.

Cayenne Pepper is a different type to stablemate Albigna. When she landed the Flame Of Tara over a mile she struck me as a filly likely to get 12F as a 3YO. I had a bet on her for the Oaks at that stage and was hoping she could cement her position as a contender for the Classic with a win in the Fillies Mile but I was a little disappointed with her effort there, when only 4th behind Quadrilateral that day. By Derby winner Australia, Cayenne Pepper looked to lack a bit of pace in the Fillies Mile but it was still a creditable effort in a Group 1 race and she has achieved a lot more than some of those ahead of her in the Oaks betting. There isn't a lot of stamina on the Dam's side and Cayenne Pepper is already by far the best of her offspring but visually the Harrington filly looks like a stayer. The trainer was keen to point out that Cayenne Pepper would be tackling longer trips than her other good fillies this season and I am hoping that the daughter of Australia can at least follow her father to an Epson Classic. For me, she is a more realistic contender than Albigna at the same 25/1 odds available in a couple of places. I think 16/1 is more like the price she should be.

After Cayenne Pepper, the Oaks betting list starts to get a bit fragmented, with some fillies only quoted by a few firms. One filly who has had some support is Passion but the Aidan O'Brien trained filly was well in arrears of Powerful Breeze in the May Hill and that race hasn't really worked out well either. Passion does not appeal to me but no doubt one of the O'Brien fillies will pop up and win a Group 1 out of the blue this season.

Conclusion:-

Plenty of lightly raced fillies lurking but not many obvious candidates in a very open Oaks at this stage. There could easily be unraced fillies waiting to come to the fore in a race where most of the current market leaders will fall by the wayside by the time the race is actually run. Not a race to go on heavy at this stage but I am happy enough with Cayenne Pepper and also think Fancy Blue is worth an interest. Early bet Salsa went down the pan quickly after compiling a shocking prial of sixes, something pretty much useless outside of three card brag. A reminder to us all that even the blue bloods can craft the occasional turd. Of the rank outsiders, Frankly Darling caught my eye. By Frankel and trained by John Gosden the filly was second at Yarmouth in a heavy ground maiden, a race won the previous year by William Haggas' Frankellina. Frankly Darling seemed to be travelling best at one stage of that race and I thought she was going to win it but she was outstayed late on in what looked a testing race. Frankel, Gosden and 66/1 are not often seen in one sentence.

St Leger

Very early days of course but the best approach in recent seasons seems to have been finding a Gosden or O'Brien colt who won't be quite good enough for a Derby but could manage to have success at a lower level at 12F before the step up to the Leger trip. Aidan O'Brien has a few contenders already and Waldkonig could be a possibility for Gosden. Plenty of candidates who won't stay the trip in a milk float and Pinatubo quoted has had me pissing myself laughing since betting first appeared. A token early selection was Brentford Hope simply because he looked stamina laden in a 10F maiden win at Newmarket. That form is probably awful in all honesty but he won it well enough and stamina can be a great leveller in Racing. I couldn't have the Hughes colt for Epsom but at 33/1 for the Leger gives at least the chance that he may line up there, unlike so many of the no hopers from a stamina perspective. Zetland Stakes winner Max Vega catches the eye from a trends point of view but by Lope De Vega the stamina index looks a bit low and trainer Ralph Beckett has disappointed in the ratio of good 2YOs who go on to do big things as 3YOs. No doubt one or two of Aidan's will emerge as contenders but guessing which ones will do best balanced against available odds makes that approach less appealing. Brentford Hope for an early poke at double carpet then.

Well, maybe this has been written in vain and I have just seen that public getherings in Ireland have been banned until at least September but hopefully someone gets some interest in reading through.

Keep healthy and all the best.

 

Excellent post, thanks Grendel

 

Great post Grendel

 

I see Ryan Moore was making the case for Arizona in a Racing Post article with the groan making headline "Praising Arizona"

The colt is as short as 9/1 for the 2000 Guineas now but I am not biting. I reckon it is a case of the stable having little else with a realistic hope for the race.

SkyBet are a standout at 11/8 on Pinatubo, with the colt generally a shade of odds on. They are very much against Earthlight on 10/1 and Siskin at 16/1.

Richard Hannon has not ruled Mums Tipple out of the 2000 Guineas entirely but stated that it was likely the Commonwealth Cup would be his main objective.

Despite the 2000 Guineas being likely to be subject to delay, James Tate has more or less ruled Sky Commander out of running in the Classic on the basis that it would probably come too soon for the colt.

 

Great work, Grendel, many thanks for all the hours you must have put in doing this.

 

11/8 seems extremely generous considering he could have beaten most of the 3yos last year at level weights. I wonder if they know something

 

The best system I've found is borrowing from friends and family. The advantage is in never paying the money back. Sure my credibility takes a pounding, but it keeps me in the punting game. And when times are really tough, there is always my good friend at the local hockshop. I've though about stealing but at my only attempt, I got rundown my a Granny who's purse I snatched. She gave me a fearful thrashing, right there in the street, in front of everybody. So as you can clearly see, I'm not that fast on my feet, so I've given thievery a miss. So for those who also suffer from a lack of serious funds on race day, may I suggest a day of heavy drinking, it always helps to pass the time.

The only real regret I've had as far as my addiction to the punt is concerned, centres around that fateful day I sold my body to a tall, willowy, fashion model for $20. It's left me feeling extremely cheap. No matter how many times I wash my private parts, I still feel so unclean. But I must admit, the two handed soaping up feels so very good.

 

Is Anapurna going to run in the oaks?


Yeah, okay, is anything? But I’d probably back her...

 

Interesting article in the RP this morning regarding the proposal of a resumption to racing in the UK. Senior jockeys only so would be a lot like the Hong Kong model and with fields capped at 12 runners to allow social distancing regulations to be enforced.
Funding for this will be hit as betting shops will not be open and racing will be without spectators. I was wondering what the revenue balance was for bookmakers these days between shop/online/on-course, I would imagine the latter is very minor.
Assuming this gets the green light I am wondering about the classics.How on Earth would you choose which twelve horses were the right ones to compete in the classics. Official rating is I guess the obvious default but that would exclude any potential big improvers and absolutely rule out any unraced 2yo's.
A resumption will pose as many questions as it answers and there will be winners and losers but provide some welcome relief for us addicts who are missing our fix. Should make for some competitive heats.

 

As Les Dennis would say, "If she's up there, I'll give you the money myself"

Anapurna won last year's Oaks.

 

Unbacked by me, as you can probably guess

Just had a quick gander at the wrong years entries...

 

France are to start up again on the 11th of May. Their Guineas races have been moved to a Monday and will take place on 1st June. The French Derby and Prix Diane will be on the 5th July, which is a Sunday.

Some of the French group races will be lost this season, a notable example being the Arc trial the Prix Niel.

France seem to be well ahead of the UK in terms of a structured plan compared with the BHA with their farting and spluttering approach, combined with titting about with field sizes of 12 maximum.

Roll on the 11th May and then the 1st of June and Victor Ludorum winning the French 2000 Guineas

 

France Galop do still require government approval for this to proceed.

I sympathise with the comment re the BHA and their usual walking through treacle approach but the titting about with field size comment is a little unwarranted. That is the safety number for racing to resume at the hub racecourses to comply with social distancing standards. Its not like they are doing it to be elitist or awkward. I would be surprised to see the French go ahead without a similar restriction in place.

 

Racing in France will recommence with four Group races on the opening day at Longchamp on May 11, as France Galop revealed a revised schedule following the shutdown of racing due to the coronavirus pandemic.

All Group 1 races are to be rearranged, starting with the unusual sight of the French 2,000 and 1,000 Guineas taking place on a Monday, June 1.

What is also evident is that Longchamp is still scheduled to host the Classic races despite a warning from leading trainer Nicolas Clement on Thursday when suggesting the races may be moved with Paris's healthcare services already strained.

Among other Group 1 races, the Coolmore Prix Saint-Alary and Prix Ganay will be run on June 14, the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud on June 28 and the French Derby and Oaks a week later on July 5.

The Prix d'Ispahan has been moved to July 19 and, for this season only, is open to three-year-olds.

The first day of racing in France, on May 11, is set to be a key trials day for top-level events later in the year. The feature is the Group 2 Prix d'Harcourt – a key early-season Arc trial won by Al Kazeem, Cloth Of Stars and Ghaiyyath in recent years.

The main trials for the two Guineas, the Prix de la Grotte and Prix de Fontainebleau, are also scheduled along with the Prix de Saint-Georges, a Group 3 sprint.

Longchamp's curtain-raising meeting will supplement racing in Toulouse and Compiegne.

Notable races that will be lost from the calendar include Maisons-Laffitte's Group 2 Prix Eugene Adam, won last season by the Roger Charlton-trained Headman.

The key Arc trial, the Group 2 Prix Niel, has also been scrapped with the Group 1 Juddmonte Grand Prix de Paris to take that race's slot on September 13.

 

I just don't like the concept of 12 runner races. For me, it smacks of all weather and low quality, or nonsense It's A Knockout fare like the Shergar Cup.

I realise that many punters will bet on that type of contest and that is their prerogative but my own preference is for the quality racing and it would be tragic to think about balloting out horses from the Classics. The maximum field size for The Derby is 20 and it is unlikely we would get that many runners in a given year but the scenario where even one or two good contenders missed the race on a criterion would be hard to stomach as a true representation of the generation of that year.

I suppose, on the bright side, a 12 runner 2000 Guineas may benefit in terms of the field splitting but not so good if your horse was balloted out.

Ach, never mind me, just having a social distant moan.

 

I do we wonder Grendel if we may even see some big trials run in two divisions with many trainers keen to get a run into their horses......

 

Ill chuck racing if Military March doesnt stay, crying out for a trip, and the Guineas is the best trial, main question mark for him is the course.

 

Excellent idea

 

Three excuses in one.