Classics Betting Update, News, Opinion

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Consistency?

How about someone saying:-

"I'mnotsaying He Can't Win, But 5/1 About Ed Walker Winning The Derby After Winning A Lingfield Trial."

Then suddenly it's :-

"EnglishKing should probably be 2/1,struggling to see how he doesn't win this."

At least I am sticking with my thinking be it wrong or not.

Worthily?

I hope no one who said an unraced at 2YO colt couldn't win this year's Derby is sneaking a bet on behind the scenes. That would be shameful.
 
I have English King at 7-2, MB if 2nd, 3rd, or 4th (Skybet)

I loved what I saw in his last run, and I'm easily impressed.
 
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I had a tip for Queen Daenerys in the Oaks. I can't see it myself, but small ew stake at 45-1 "just in case" :)
 
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Given the ground English King made up in the last half a furlong one wonders if Frankie slipped up there. 12/1 for the SL with Serpentine 11/4 fav
 
Ron said:
Given the ground English King made up in the last half a furlong one wonders if Frankie slipped up there. 12/1 for the SL with Serpentine 11/4 fav
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Memories of Slip Anchor in 1985 when Cauthen made the other jockeys look mugs- at some stage he was 22 lengths clear and won the race by 7 lengths. I feel sorry for those who had a bet in the race. They did not get a run for their money!
 
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both the oaks and derby were shambles of races, wouldnt trust the form an inch, really disappointing to see two top races run like that

Love was impressive but given Frankly Darling did not fire im not sure its as good as it looks, she is a quality filly though
 
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Cracking shout ante-post with Love Benoit. It was a one horse race.

I knew Frankly Darling was beaten after 2 furlongs. She was ill at ease all the way. In the circumstances I felt she did OK to get as close to old foe Ennystimon as she did. Gosden's filly was always too far off the pace, which was yet again, just like the Derby, a ridiculous suicide gallop. I am glad people have got the money to piss away on entries, just to run the horse into the ground as a sacrificial lamb for another horse.

I think Love beat a mediocre field and totally outclassed them. No doubt there will be people fawning over her and wanting a statue erected for one of "The All Time Greats"

That was the worst Derby I have seen in 45 years of watching it. My pick actually did best of the fancied ones but was never going to be better than second. It was clear from a long way out that nothing would catch Serpentine. Mogul and Russian Emperor were like Boaty Mc Boatface and English King ran OK but couldn't catch a total non-stayer based on the vibes beforehand. Safe to say that the Stopwatch analysis that put English King 30 lengths better than Anthony Van Dyck in the Lingfield Derby trial was complete and utter bollocks.

I had a bad day with Gosden being woeful in several races. My outsider Love And Thunder was more Fud And Chunder, pulling far too hard. I did suspect that Fooraat was an awful price but didn't think my old Guineas horse Summer Romance would pop up. I had said last season that it was a mistake running her at 6F when there was a 7F race in France that looked a better idea than taking on sprinters and here she was making all and staying on well over 8 and a half furlongs. Appleby should have asked me last year about her targets :D

Kameko was puzzling as he never got to sit behind what had looked a suicidal pace to some jockey's eyes. It was not as if he came there with a chance and then faded. He was able to finish ahead of English King and Aidan's guaranteed stayers but couldn't get close to a Maiden winner and two rank outsiders. It was inconclusive really and we never really got to witness the tank emptying.

I wouldn't want to be trying to put a rating on that Derby. A 99 rated horse has finished runner up and beaten his stablemate, who was rated 20 lbs higher. The 3rd home came in with a RPR of 81 and I had jokingly described him as the best outsider following his previous race throwing up the 2-3-4 in the Irish Derby. Serpentine has put distance between himself and the field an is bound to be given a huge leap forward. He had been progressive and the best way, perhaps only way, to address it is to assume that he was the best of a really ****ty crop of stayers.

Overall, it is a Derby I will probably spend my life in the quest to be able to somehow "Unsee" or at least erase from the memory banks as much as is possible. A Derby with a 55 grand tricast. I bet that screwed up Old Moore's Almanac usual prediction that the FAV or 2ndFav might win the race. Perhaps we should start buying Ryan Moore's Almanac instead. I reckon that would have read "Sorry Ryan, you will be on the wrong one of Aidan's, yet again" Now THAT is a prediction we could all collect on.
 
I don't know, I must be getting old or something, but I thought the Derby was a brilliant spectacle. As I no longer punt, I suppose because I wasn't saddled with the burden of shackling my expectations to my hip pocket, I got to revel in the excitement of the race itself. And what a race it turned out to be. Unlike our good friend Grendel, I don't want to erase the memory of Serpentine's dashing win from my memory banks, I want it to live large as I work my way into my dotage. When Emmet McNamara pressed the go button on Tattenham Corner and Serpentine responded, all of a sudden, I was in the saddle with him. It was like: "**** yeah, go mate, go."

I smiled like buggery when I read of McNamara's quote after dismounting. "So, pick the bones out of that one." <laugh>
 
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It was more interesting than a lot think. According to the clocks, Serpentine would have been beaten about 3 lengths by Love, but the filly set the fastest ever Oaks time on record. (Newmarket Oaks excepted.)

From what I've been reading, Serpentine was coldly ridden early in the race which meant the time he ran in the final 5-6 furlongs gave them no chance at all. Could they have run him to ground if they'd spent extra fuel in the first half of the race? Who knows? There is only so much petrol in the tank. Of course we'll never know the answer as to whether more proactive rides might have made the difference, but there's one thing we do know, Serpentine wasn't for stopping. 3:34:43 hardly set the track alight though. But AOB sent out a horse rock hard in condition that was brilliantly ridden, so a big pat on the back to all concerned.

And when we factor in the pre-race thinking on the supposed modest class of this year's crop, maybe, just maybe, the best horse actually did win the Derby.
 
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Fairly spot on assessment Cyclonic, onya mate.

Grendel likes to do a good old paralysis of analysis, where every race is scrutinised to the point no horse is good, nothing ran to its rating, the trainers haven't a clue what they are doing, the current bunch are useless and the time is never as good as that time back in 1435 when that horse with four legs ran the Derby in 6 seconds. Those were the days.

As long as I've been following racing, people are always over analysing racing to its own detriment, even when a superstar does come along, he's picked apart and the negatives always sought out rather than just enjoying the bloody race and the animal for what it and they are. Appreciate that every race is different, seldom will a horse run the same race twice, ground, pace, wind, jockey, temperament all affect the horse on a given day. They can only go out and do the best and Serpentine did it, the way Emmet McNamara was either asked, or felt best. And he won, Easily.

Just enjoy the race for the moment instead of looking to pick the bones out of it because Serpentine didn't beat a 120 rated horse by 5 lenghts before coming into it. He won on the day and that's all the record books will say.
 
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Grendel said:
Cracking shout ante-post with Love Benoit. It was a one horse race.

I knew Frankly Darling was beaten after 2 furlongs. She was ill at ease all the way. In the circumstances I felt she did OK to get as close to old foe Ennystimon as she did. Gosden's filly was always too far off the pace, which was yet again, just like the Derby, a ridiculous suicide gallop. I am glad people have got the money to piss away on entries, just to run the horse into the ground as a sacrificial lamb for another horse.

I think Love beat a mediocre field and totally outclassed them. No doubt there will be people fawning over her and wanting a statue erected for one of "The All Time Greats"

That was the worst Derby I have seen in 45 years of watching it. My pick actually did best of the fancied ones but was never going to be better than second. It was clear from a long way out that nothing would catch Serpentine. Mogul and Russian Emperor were like Boaty Mc Boatface and English King ran OK but couldn't catch a total non-stayer based on the vibes beforehand. Safe to say that the Stopwatch analysis that put English King 30 lengths better than Anthony Van Dyck in the Lingfield Derby trial was complete and utter bollocks.

I had a bad day with Gosden being woeful in several races. My outsider Love And Thunder was more Fud And Chunder, pulling far too hard. I did suspect that Fooraat was an awful price but didn't think my old Guineas horse Summer Romance would pop up. I had said last season that it was a mistake running her at 6F when there was a 7F race in France that looked a better idea than taking on sprinters and here she was making all and staying on well over 8 and a half furlongs. Appleby should have asked me last year about her targets :D

Kameko was puzzling as he never got to sit behind what had looked a suicidal pace to some jockey's eyes. It was not as if he came there with a chance and then faded. He was able to finish ahead of English King and Aidan's guaranteed stayers but couldn't get close to a Maiden winner and two rank outsiders. It was inconclusive really and we never really got to witness the tank emptying.

I wouldn't want to be trying to put a rating on that Derby. A 99 rated horse has finished runner up and beaten his stablemate, who was rated 20 lbs higher. The 3rd home came in with a RPR of 81 and I had jokingly described him as the best outsider following his previous race throwing up the 2-3-4 in the Irish Derby. Serpentine has put distance between himself and the field an is bound to be given a huge leap forward. He had been progressive and the best way, perhaps only way, to address it is to assume that he was the best of a really ****ty crop of stayers.

Overall, it is a Derby I will probably spend my life in the quest to be able to somehow "Unsee" or at least erase from the memory banks as much as is possible. A Derby with a 55 grand tricast. I bet that screwed up Old Moore's Almanac usual prediction that the FAV or 2ndFav might win the race. Perhaps we should start buying Ryan Moore's Almanac instead. I reckon that would have read "Sorry Ryan, you will be on the wrong one of Aidan's, yet again" Now THAT is a prediction we could all collect on.
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My word Grendel, you are feeling very bitter. The horse did a Slip Anchor. In another 10 or so metres English King would have been going away from the placed horses. Given that no horse drawn 1 has been placed this century, who knows what would have happened if he had been drawn better and Frankie (and all the other half asleep jockeys) hadn't assumed the winner would come back to the field. Serpentine is clearly an improving stayer and the jockey outwitted the others. I didn't even notice the horse was running and thought for a moment I was watching the wrong race but full credit to horse and rider. Once again, ratings before the race mean **** all <laugh>
 
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