Daily Racing Thread Saturday 6th. June 2020

Saturday's Meetings

Newcastle
A/W 10 Races 12:55-6:15p.m.
Newmarket
Turf 9 Races 1:15-5:55p.m.
2,000 Guineas Off @ 3:35p.m.
Lingfield(E)
A/W 9 Races 4:20-9:00p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck

 

Title needs changed to Saturday I think.

I wasnt able to take the 7/2 on Waldkonig midweek as it was Ladbrokes, not interested in backing him at the odds now. I think Volkan Star 7/1 is worth a bet against him, can throw out his Zetland run on soft ground and interesting that Appleby could have run Al Suhail here but maybe he already had this one in mind for it. Waldkonig has a big reputation after running away with an extremely weak maiden last back end, he has a high knee action to go with his soft ground pedigree and he might not be in love with the conditions tomorrow if the ground remains track record fast. Track is playing kindly to front runners and Volkan Star won his maiden impressively from the front, he was beaten a head at the course on debut by a horse Meehan is throwing into the Guineas which is also interesting.

 

Have been looking at that race and had it between the top two. You really think Waldkonig could be beat? Has a massive reputation and was so impressive on his debut I was thinking he s a near cert. Zoran ran quite a nice race who finished 9 lengths behind him on Monday. The only concern in the back of my mind is Waldkonig handling the track so was considering of Al Aasy who is in the derby betting also and ran quite a nice debut at the course so will handle the track.

What's your view on Al aasy?

 

Its all about the price, Waldkonig was a good bet at 7/2 but at evens im not interested, might win like a 1/3 shot and you could say evens was good value but only in hindsight, based on current evidence I dont think you can argue that its particularly good value. If the forecast rain is heavy then hes probably a good thing, im pinning my hopes on the track still being firm as I do think he will prefer soft ground.

Al Aasy has been hyped up by Haggas and ran a nice enough debut, plenty will be backing him but you are guessing a bit with him as to how much he will improve. Volkan Star has a bit more substance with his Goodwood win where he had the 81 rated Oslo 7L behind in 3rd and the runner up won a maiden at Kempton the other day.

 

I can't say William Haggas has hyped Al Aasy. The trainer said a few days ago that the horse needs to find two stones to be a Derby player. Considering that his RPR is 77, it would take 42 lbs ie three stones to match the 119 rating of Anthony Van Dyck in winning last year's Derby. The winner of Al Aasy's only race Tom Collins was stone last next time and he was stone last again behind Berlin Tango the other day. The form reeks from my viewpoint and I think Al Aasy is a terrible price for today's race at 13/2.

I have seen Volkan Star tipped as a value alternative to the favourite Waldkonig but even if drawing a line through his Zetland run his maiden win, which looks good in terms of winning margin and the 2nd and third winning afterwards, has to be tempered by one horse winning a 10F Kempton maiden and the other a Chelmsford Handicap off 75. I would rather take him at 8/1 than Al Aasy at 13/2. I think Al Aasy should be a drifter tomorrow and 10/1 is possible in my eyes.

Waldkonig needs to win today and he needs to do it cosily. He is short enough for the Derby at 10/1 but that needs to be put into perspective with today's winner English King being as low as 5/1 for the race. I have never seen such a ****ty looking Derby in terms of value and punters who don't like betting ante-post for fear of not getting a run are being bent over and pumped up the butt by the bookies. It's an appalling looking book and these grabbing bastards deserve to be shunned.

I have backed Waldkonig for the Arc De Triomphe at 66/1. I don't care if he doesn't run in the race because I would rather back at a decent price than take the shambolic prices offered on horses who have yet to warrant being the prices they are. English King was impressive today but let's not forget that it looked a distictly ordinary Listed race that he won and the Guineas is being run tomorrow. That 5/1 English King could look very silly tomorrow evening.

You can still get 66/1 Waldkonig for the Arc with a few firms. It could all lie in tatters tomorrow of course but not a lot of damage is done at these big prices.

 

Haggas told a reporter earlier in the year, perhaps assuming it was off the record, that Al Aasy might be his best 3yo, that's why he was backed for the Derby. He has been far cooler on him in a TV interview since but I'd say that initial comment constitutes hype.

 

Morning

3.00 Newmarket-Mishriff

Each Way @ 12-1 [William Hill]

Might not be that far behind his stablemate

 

As the old saying goes lightning rarely strikes twice but i'd feel a prick if i didn't point this out, and if you have a couple of quid spare just have it on the all-ways tri-cast

1 15 Newmarket

Street Parade, Restless Rose, Royal Birth

Stuart Williams stable is known as shrewd in general and has only had 3 in a race once and when he did he had 1st/2nd/3rd for a 3700/1 tri-cast in october

https://www.racingpost.com/results/1079/kempton-aw/2019-10-10/740118

 

Only issue is the yard are out of form (I've been following them closely). The only one that has run particularly well is Breathtaking Look who was punted heavily yesterday and found one too good. On that, it'll be interesting to see if money comes for any of his runners at Newmarket today.

 

Here we are in June and betting is like it were March, taking fitness on trust because no-one has run yet!

I shall be giving the 2000 Guineas a miss as I expect Pinatubo to win it if he has trained on. He comes into the race with a rating better than that of the average Guineas winner and it seems unlikely that any of those vanquished by him last term (e.g. Arizona, Wichita) will have improved past him even with the extra month. I liked the look of Kameko last season as a staying prospect but the maestro of Ballydoyle will know what the Futurity form is worth as he sent out the second, third and fourth; and I am always wary of A/W form back on turf. If Kameko places, I can see him being Derby favourite by four o’clock.

With seven engaged for the Dahlia Stakes, my expectation is that Sir Michael Stoute’s Queen Power will grab the attention as he has a good record with this type of filly. Terebellum was a close fifth in a blanket finish to the Prix de l’Opera on soft ground so I think she needs rain at HQ to enhance her chances; hence I prefer Charlie Appleby’s MAGIC LILY, even with her penalty. Her second to Barney Roy at Meydan is the best form on offer if coming back to the cooler climate of HQ has not set her back. She can instigate a short-priced double for William Buick and Appleby.

When Montatham strolled up at long odds-on at Beverley, I thought he looked the type that might go on to better things but he subsequently failed to win and now starts as a four year old lighter in the tackle department. He may get back to winning ways in the 4:10 but given where he is stabled I do not see much likelihood of drift in the scant odds, so I will pass.

I would love to see old boy Judicial run a big race in the Palace House and he has won a third of his career starts, but I am more inclined to look at the younger, lightly-raced rivals for the winner. I think that Far Above is a six furlong horse, so I am turning to the two mares at the bottom of the card. Shades of Blue was third in the Queen Mary as a juvenile but her only win since was a listed race and she has a couple of Group 3 placings; however, she could have improved for another winter. Michael Dods’ mare QUEENS GIFT could have beaten Judicial in last year’s Beverley Bullet with a shade more luck, was subsequently touched off in another listed race; and her trainer had an excellent record with dual winner Mabs Cross. Is she the next stable star?

 

Knowing Stu he probably wanted to have had a run of bad form so the prices are even juicier

 

I think Daarek and Withold can both oblige at Gosforth Park Newcastle.

Queens Gift at HQ with a head behind 112 rated Equilateral looks a good bet ew at double figures.
Military March looks good value ew in the classic, I have to be against the jolly at the price, can he improve much from last year? Im doubtful, whilst a few of the others will have and run a month later might make a difference.

 

12 on all weather I think

 

Scoop 6/Ew Lucky 63 & acca:

1:50 Newmarket - Queens Gift 11/1
2:05 Newcastle - Red Bond 7/1
2:25 Newmarket - Magic Lily 11/4
2:40 Newcastle - Prince of Arran 9/1
3:00 Newmarket - Waldkonig 5/6
3:35 Newmarket - Pinatubo 4/5

 

Newcastle
I think i might have found one GLOBAL WARMING 14/1 (PP 4 Places). His only win came over track and trip and is just 3lbs higher today after a few blowouts at different tracks. It looks a race for jobber horses so I think with Havlin in the plate it looks a fun ew play.

Also PRINCE OF ARRAN at 8s with the extra place from Skybet looks the value bet. Withhold might beat him again but at the prices i'm happy to take a chance.

Newmarket
More than likely Pinatubo hacks up Frankel style he's a monster but i'm on Kinross at 18s antepost and i think with four places again he's the value play. We know he loves the track, not a massive betting heat.

Same applies to Waldikong in the previous race but Punctuation will surely be at least placed 7/1. Yard is flying and i'd rather be on a decent ew play with the champ Murphy in the plate.

 

of all the rubbish I’ve read on here, that rates pretty highly. For some reason I don’t think Tom Morley would be chuffed with his horses running below form so they could land a trifecta on Guineas day.

 

Have a good day Reebs! Hope you feeling better..

 

Two bets for me today:

Newmarket 3pm Al Assy 15/2 each way. Waldkonig could well hack up but happy to go with this one who trainer rates highly with Jim Cowley on board. Clearly I have not listened to Grendel or Benoit or even Grade One but sometimes you gotta go with your gut. I thought his first run up at the track was good and I am guessing the soft going wasn't to his likeing. Potential

Newmarket 3.35pm Kameko 9/1 each way 4 places. Ran some cracking races last term and finished off the season in style. Who knows what profession is there but Balding is on fire and with a top jockey on board looking for his first guineas win can go close.

Good luck all..

 

****ing hell Nass was a joke ya mug