The worst looking Champion Hurdle field I can recall.
I suspect the trainer feels Envoi Allen is not ready yet, even in a dire year. He's been hyped to the absolute tits but he is still a 154 rated horse on official figures for the moment. The lure of unbeaten horses is strong but he needs another chunk to win. There are worse bets than him though. You can get 5/1 WAR on him and money back if he does not line up. I feel Honeysuckle and Benie Des Dieux are worse value at their odds.
Benie Des Dieux thrashed Penhill last time but there are clear reasons not to buy into the form. It was a 3 mile race on Heavy ground and former champion stayer Penhill has had his problems, hence the 8/1 odds that day. Second favourite Apples Jade was pulled up and she has mostly been out of sorts for a while now. The test over 3 miles on a ploughed field was very different to what a 2 mile Champion Hurdle on better ground would be. I think she is terrible value myself.
I was listening to Radio 5 after the Irish Champion Hurdle and could not believe when the Sports News round-up led with the headline "Racing has a new superstar after the unbeaten Honeysuckle landed the Irish Champion Hurdle today" I know we hear a lot about "Fake News" these days but this was surely "F*** ! News" The runner up in that Champion Hurdle was officially rated 146 but somehow got a mark of 160 from the Racing Post. The official Handicapper was more cautious on 152 but the fact is that Honeysuckle has been winning soft races at short odds. Just because some were Grade 1 status does not mean they were Grade 1 quality and that seems to be an area where some punters get trapped into assuming that a Grade 1 is automatically the top quality. Any race is only as good as the overall strength of the field when several of the runners have run to their best ability.
The trainer of Honeysuckle seemed lukewarm about taking Honeysuckle to the Champion Hurdle and it's probably wise not to be buying into the Superstar tag. Honeysuckle isn't even favourite for the Mares' Hurdle, which seems odd for a "Superstar"
Willie Mullins has had several crocks in the build up to Cheltenham and he's tailed away to a 10% strike rate after averaging about 30% earlier in the year. I have noticed that some of his unraced horses this season have missed intended prep races. Fly Smart and Rayapour were subjects of positive reports regarding their ability but it took a little longer before they received any entries and then both of them failed to stand their ground. It's not been a smooth run up for Mullins and I wonder how he will fare at Cheltenham this time around.
The Champion Hurdle picture is muddled and you know it is bad when a springer in the market at 14/1 is a 10YO on the downgrade to 159 called Supasundae.
I don't think I could bring myself to bet on the race now.
I suspect the trainer feels Envoi Allen is not ready yet, even in a dire year. He's been hyped to the absolute tits but he is still a 154 rated horse on official figures for the moment. The lure of unbeaten horses is strong but he needs another chunk to win. There are worse bets than him though. You can get 5/1 WAR on him and money back if he does not line up. I feel Honeysuckle and Benie Des Dieux are worse value at their odds.
Benie Des Dieux thrashed Penhill last time but there are clear reasons not to buy into the form. It was a 3 mile race on Heavy ground and former champion stayer Penhill has had his problems, hence the 8/1 odds that day. Second favourite Apples Jade was pulled up and she has mostly been out of sorts for a while now. The test over 3 miles on a ploughed field was very different to what a 2 mile Champion Hurdle on better ground would be. I think she is terrible value myself.
I was listening to Radio 5 after the Irish Champion Hurdle and could not believe when the Sports News round-up led with the headline "Racing has a new superstar after the unbeaten Honeysuckle landed the Irish Champion Hurdle today" I know we hear a lot about "Fake News" these days but this was surely "F*** ! News" The runner up in that Champion Hurdle was officially rated 146 but somehow got a mark of 160 from the Racing Post. The official Handicapper was more cautious on 152 but the fact is that Honeysuckle has been winning soft races at short odds. Just because some were Grade 1 status does not mean they were Grade 1 quality and that seems to be an area where some punters get trapped into assuming that a Grade 1 is automatically the top quality. Any race is only as good as the overall strength of the field when several of the runners have run to their best ability.
The trainer of Honeysuckle seemed lukewarm about taking Honeysuckle to the Champion Hurdle and it's probably wise not to be buying into the Superstar tag. Honeysuckle isn't even favourite for the Mares' Hurdle, which seems odd for a "Superstar"
Willie Mullins has had several crocks in the build up to Cheltenham and he's tailed away to a 10% strike rate after averaging about 30% earlier in the year. I have noticed that some of his unraced horses this season have missed intended prep races. Fly Smart and Rayapour were subjects of positive reports regarding their ability but it took a little longer before they received any entries and then both of them failed to stand their ground. It's not been a smooth run up for Mullins and I wonder how he will fare at Cheltenham this time around.
The Champion Hurdle picture is muddled and you know it is bad when a springer in the market at 14/1 is a 10YO on the downgrade to 159 called Supasundae.
I don't think I could bring myself to bet on the race now.
