Cheltenham 2020 Ante Post Thread
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For those who haven't seen it, I just found this video on YouTube of Faugheen beating Samcro at Limerick the other day - great film 
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Tom Segal starting his racing post ante post campaign.Put up Sharjah win and Not So Sleepy Ew. Makes valid points about the mare being a terrible price, I wont be backing her for sure,ye just cant trust the mares lads!!
Its not beyond the realms of possibility though for it to come up soft come festival time, and with the wet winter we have had so far who's to say this won't continue..
Trainer and jockey both quoted as saying in their view Native River is back to his best. They believe he wasn't quite at that level last season, he ran well but he was always a little off his very best. He feels different this season and he has to have a big chance surely if it comes up soft..
Don't disagree at all in terms of the ground at the festival, but in terms of antepost betting, 20/1 would only interest me if I knew the ground was going to have the word heavy in it. Chances of that? I'd say less than 20%
He is another that I think the bookmakers have right at the minute. The problem with antepost betting is that you only get a price that is really good if you think a horse is going to improve in runs before the big day. Even if he comes out and wins the Cotswold Chase, he will have the same questions to answer in terms of ground, opposition and his age.
Matt Brocklebank on Sporting life makes a good case for getting stuck in to Native River early..points out newly applied blinkers did the trick at Aintree and they could prove to be a good aid for the horse. More importantly he s only been out of the first 3 once in 17 chase starts..More stats thst wouldn't put you off an ante post bet on him...
Lostintranslation looked like a horse who needed further when chasing Defi Du Seuil to no avail over 2 and a half miles last season. I didn't back him in the King George despite wanting to oppose Cyrname. In the end I didn't have a bet at all but watching the race I never felt Lostintranslation was comfortable going the pace, seeming to run in snatches a bit before the effort in maintaining contact seemed to have a detrimental effect on his jumping accuracy and he ended up being pulled up. After that race Colin Tizzard reported that the horse had a breathing problem, an excuse that seems to be getting more air, if you'll excuse the pun, these days.
With that in mind it doesn't matter too much about going straight to the Gold Cup from my point of view. I think the more important issue is whether the horse needs to have the breathing issue addressed through surgery before the Festival?
I don't like Lostintranslation's chances now because of the breathing problem comment.
I feel Kemboy ran a decent race in the Savills Chase and he will come on a lot from that. The line through Monalee from the previous year's renewal where Kemboy came to the upper echelons of Chasing in winning it would have seen him follow up this season based on the ratings and formlines. Obviously Kemboy departed early in last year's Gold Cup but he remains with potential at his age and it is hard to imagine him ever getting into an Irish National again off a mark of 145. In retrospect Kemboy must have been something to punt on at 14/1 carrying just 10st 6lbs in the 2018 Irish National. His mark now is 177 and he would look ridiculously well in on his 2018 mark. The distance would have been the biggest question now in all probability but we will never know because he fell at the 1st fence, the same fence he departed at in last year's Gold Cup. Kemboy has winning form on several surfaces and it sticks strong in the memory that he came into the closing stages of the Aintree Bowl on the bit before clearing right away from Clan Des Obeaux. He followed up by beating the Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo in the Puncheston Gold Cup and those two runs make him the one to beat for me.
7/1 Kemboy or 8/1 Lostintranslation?
It's a no-brainer for me at only 1pt less with Kemboy when you consider actual achievements so far and take into account a horse with "Breathing problem" mentioned by his trainer. Willie Mullins stated that Kemboy would need to come on from his Savills' Chase run but that is more or less a given and he added that the Irish Gold Cup was the obvious next race for him. A win there will see him favourite for Cheltenham surely and I find it hard to figure that Al Boum Photo is half the odds of Kemboy with some firms. Gold Cup winners very rarely follow up the following season and that happened yet again last year when Native River never seemed to travel in the faster conditions than his winning season.
With that in mind it doesn't matter too much about going straight to the Gold Cup from my point of view. I think the more important issue is whether the horse needs to have the breathing issue addressed through surgery before the Festival?
I don't like Lostintranslation's chances now because of the breathing problem comment.
I feel Kemboy ran a decent race in the Savills Chase and he will come on a lot from that. The line through Monalee from the previous year's renewal where Kemboy came to the upper echelons of Chasing in winning it would have seen him follow up this season based on the ratings and formlines. Obviously Kemboy departed early in last year's Gold Cup but he remains with potential at his age and it is hard to imagine him ever getting into an Irish National again off a mark of 145. In retrospect Kemboy must have been something to punt on at 14/1 carrying just 10st 6lbs in the 2018 Irish National. His mark now is 177 and he would look ridiculously well in on his 2018 mark. The distance would have been the biggest question now in all probability but we will never know because he fell at the 1st fence, the same fence he departed at in last year's Gold Cup. Kemboy has winning form on several surfaces and it sticks strong in the memory that he came into the closing stages of the Aintree Bowl on the bit before clearing right away from Clan Des Obeaux. He followed up by beating the Gold Cup winner Al Boum Photo in the Puncheston Gold Cup and those two runs make him the one to beat for me.
7/1 Kemboy or 8/1 Lostintranslation?
It's a no-brainer for me at only 1pt less with Kemboy when you consider actual achievements so far and take into account a horse with "Breathing problem" mentioned by his trainer. Willie Mullins stated that Kemboy would need to come on from his Savills' Chase run but that is more or less a given and he added that the Irish Gold Cup was the obvious next race for him. A win there will see him favourite for Cheltenham surely and I find it hard to figure that Al Boum Photo is half the odds of Kemboy with some firms. Gold Cup winners very rarely follow up the following season and that happened yet again last year when Native River never seemed to travel in the faster conditions than his winning season.
Ill chuck racing if Kemboy wins the Gold Cup. Stealing from the front against boats off a slow pace at 3 miles on flat tracks is his ball game. Last years winner has every chance of repeating.
Just posted this elsewhere so a copy and paste job
Since the modern era began (switch the the New Course in 1959) this is the full list of horses that have won more than one Gold Cup.
Kauto Star 2009/2007
Best Mate 2004/2003/2002
L'escargot 1971/1970
Arkle 1966/1965/1964
Al Boum Photo 5/1 to join that list?
I know its not easy to win 2 Gold Cups historically but the level of competition this year must be taken into account and it doesnt look strong. Al Boum Photo looks like its all about 1 race and granted a clear run, Mullins will have him spot on with the exact same prep as last year. Hes only 8 and not going to the well with him often gives him a good chance of winning again imo. Most Gold Cup winners run in 2/3 Grade 1s before going for it again but Mullins looks to be giving this horse every chance. I think 5/1 is a fair enough price, he will likely go off 3/1 or shorter.Just posted this elsewhere so a copy and paste job
Since the modern era began (switch the the New Course in 1959) this is the full list of horses that have won more than one Gold Cup.
Kauto Star 2009/2007
Best Mate 2004/2003/2002
L'escargot 1971/1970
Arkle 1966/1965/1964
Al Boum Photo 5/1 to join that list?
I have not given the race much thought but its been in the back of mind since before the season that he could win it again.
Having a quick look there, I cant have Kemboy or Clan Des Obeaux and Lostintranslation has questions to answer after that last performance re jumping and breathing. Delta Work maybe just lacks a bit to win a Gold Cup, but he has advertised the strength of the RSA and Santini who finished 2nd in that could be the interesting one. He had a lacklustre comeback win at Sandown but the small field and muddling early pace was never going to expose his limits, a strongly run Gold Cup on soft ground will see him in a better light. He could be worth a bet at 10/1 before the Cotswald Chase.
Surely Al Boum photo isn't in the same league as those on that list?Just posted this elsewhere so a copy and paste job
Since the modern era began (switch the the New Course in 1959) this is the full list of horses that have won more than one Gold Cup.
Kauto Star 2009/2007
Best Mate 2004/2003/2002
L'escargot 1971/1970
Arkle 1966/1965/1964
Al Boum Photo 5/1 to join that list?
What about Presenting Percy? I cant see an Al Boum photo repeat myself..he fell in the RSA when looking beat when Presenting Percy hosed up.
Mullins doesn't have the best record in the Gold Cup also.
Plenty of candidates in with a shout in an open looking Cheltenham Gold Cup. I wouldn't rule out Clan Des Obeaux, won the King George again and looked even more impressive if anything. This year a much stronger horse according to his trainer...
Some horses having different preps too.. Monalee going straight to the gold cup a fresh horse and his trainer is having a great season. Bristol de Mai also going a different route and a stronger horse this year..
Well I wouldn't place him in the same league as them but trends wouldn't be the first place I'd go for ruling a horse out of a race. Being a course and distance festival winner is more important to me than "four legends have done it and APB isn't a legend" which was esentially what my stats imply....
Gut tells me though that he won't make it onto that list and at 5/1 now I don't think it's value (relative to other ante post markets etc)...
It's one of the races I'm yet to really form a strong opinion in myself. I did chance Presenting Percy before the John Durkan and was pleased after that, however I'm now not as keen after Christmas and the news today is that he's going for the Galmoy Hurdle again which I'm only lukewarm on rather than pleased.
I think there will be competitve prices on the day for Al Boum Photo, not one I'd be certain would shorten a whole lot as we won't see him and whatever wins the Irish Gold Cup will become very much flavour of the month, especially if it's Kemboy.
He'd want to be improving on what we saw finishing alongside Percy, but it's easier to expect him to given the well documented Christmas first time out recod of lots of Willie's.
As well as PP, Delta Work 25/1 and Elegant Escape 50/1 are the two I've backed. EE is just an absolute boat but I swore I'd never rule out boats again after seeing Synchronised and Lord Windamere win the big 'un.
Delta Work bounced back, but I wouldn't get carried away with the strength of beating Monalee (who by the way I am staggered isn't entered in the Ryanair as he has no chance of staying the Gold Cup trip for me)