Epatante now 9/4 with some firms which is crazy seeing as we are still over three months until the festival. (She finished ninth in the mares hurdle last year). She was very impressive at Kempton though so should be rightly discussed as a potential contender in what's looking a pretty ordinary renewal but you would be mad to back her now at that price.
Don’t worry lads we haven’t seen the champion hurdler yet! LABAIK! In all seriousness one I did take a very small abit of price about is Supersundae @ 33/1(altho 40’s are available) second to BVD at punchestown beat the same horse in the Aintree hurdle. Is a proven G1 horse and altho 2m maybe abit on the short side he can most certainly get away with it on Cheltenham soft ground. His form last year puts him right up there and is no way a 33/1 shot unless he is injured that is
Klassical Dream looks to have a bit on his plate after his latest RPR of 35. Has never looked like a champion hurdler and looking like a wasted season where he should have been novice chasing, gives his hurdles about 3 feet and has no change of pace.
Sam Spinner out of the season. https://www.racingpost.com/news/lat...e-season-after-suffering-pelvic-injury/415796
I have put together a spreadsheet to track all ante post cheltenham festival bets so please continue to post them on here. Just a bit of fun and we can look back to see how well everyone has done at the end of the 4 days.
I have decided to get involved in this. I am pretty sure only my 3rd ante post bet in my whole life. Anyhoo had a little dabble on: Bristol De Mai 50/1 each way. Hope it comes up soft..ran well in the race last year and I like the different prep this time round. Possibly quite a fragile horse and therefore this type of prep with some match practice in January could suit.
Klassical Dream was rated 123 by the Racing Post for his latest effort. He sprawled on landing and his race was effectively over. He did work back into the race but the effort told in the closing stages. He simply never ran to his form. There is no need for fancy analysis in this instance, one can simply observe that he was six lengths in front of winner Sharjah last time out and only a length behind Petit Mouchoir in the same race, that compares to being more than 40 lengths behind both horses in the Matheson. Clearly Klassical Dream is capable of a lot better than that and the biggest element in the melting pot is the fact that this looks like the worst Champion Hurdle I can recall in terms of quality. Sharjah would probably have been shorter now but for the fact that he disappointed at Cheltenham last season and he didn't beat a great horse in Petit Mouchoir when landing the Matheson. Coeur Sublime was reported to be going for a raft of tests after disappointing his trainer but the hard fact is that his RPR for the Matheson is his second best ever on 149 and is five pounds higher than got for being runner up to Pentland Hills in the Triumph Hurdle, so the trainer is surely buying into the idea that Coeur Sublime's win from Coko Beach was truly worthy of a 155 rating. Coko Beach was well beaten when falling next time and it looks odd that they felt it necessary to go up a full mile in trip with Coko Beach that day anyway? Epatante looks a suicide bet to me at 3/1 having won a sappy looking Christmas Hurdle. Silver Streak is solid but unspectacular and joint fav Fusil Raffles was out with the washing. I heard some murmers of expectation for Fusil Raffles as a Champion Hurdle contender but he's about a 150 horse to my eyes. Pentland Hills has plenty of ground to make up but has scope to improve this season, however he looked like he had a fair way to come when running behind Call Me lord on his comeback and I felt he won a very weak Triumph Hurdle last season. Saldier had a setback and after a long time between his previous two runs there has to be fragility question mark over him. Honeysuckle looks like stamina is her forte and seems very short for a horse with no form over 2 miles and the fact that she was a shade of odds-on in her last race shows how poor her opposition was deemed to be that day. She's not for me. Envoi Allen is clearly a player if he lines up in such a weak affair. The participation or not of the unbeaten horse is the big question? On the drift in the Supreme Novices, the trainer hinted early in the season that Abacadabras might be the horse for that race with Envoi Allen stepping up in distance for one of the other races at Cheltenham. Betting for the Champion Hurdle varies wildly, with Betfred at 5/1, while William Hill offer 16/1, Being 7/4 in general for the Ballymore now, compared to 8/1 in the third week of October, suggests that he is far more likely to appear there rather then anywhere else makes Betfred's 5/1 lfor the Champion look a suicide wager. Looking at Klassical Dream's chances now you have to consider what price he would be if he had not run in the Matheson. With Sharjah winning it and Petit Mouchoir finishing second, we would then be considering Klassical Dream's form with those two in his surprising defeat on seasonal reappearance. I think that in the current circumstances he would be a reasonably short favourite. You have to forgive the bad run now though but he was sore after that race and there seems worse value than his current odds of 10/1 when you weigh up all the pros and cons of the other candidates. Plenty of time for the picture to change in such an uninspiring year.
"There is no need for fancy analysis in this instance, one can simply observe that he was six lengths in front of winner Sharjah last time out and only a length behind Petit Mouchoir in the same race, that compares to being more than 40 lengths behind both horses in the Matheson." Racing doesnt work like that, especially in jumps where 40-50 length turnarounds are extremely common making paper form almost worthless without a lot more context. As I was told by people at the track, Klassical Dream was fit first time out, had his conditions and was hammered in the betting accordingly, he lost with zero excuses. Sharjah on the other hand was never going to run his best race on that ground first time out since being brought down by BVD in last years CH, hardly disappointing as you say, he needs good ground. Klassical Dreams jumping was absurd and he wont win a Champion Hurdle in a 100 years with that technique and lack of gears, will be a decent novice chaser if they have not ruined him chasing a pipedream this season. Hes 14/1 with Boylesports although they are a tinpot outfit and 20 quid will likely be the max for anyone who wants to throw it away. Pentland Hills, Fusil Raffles, Coer Sublime etc are enowhere near 150 horses, was a honking juvenile division, miles below even the supreme novice never mind Buveur Dairs standard.
Strange race for Envoi Allen to run in tomorrow, looking at the past winners its been a stayers race, id have thought the Delloite would have been more appropriate but he should win anyway. Midnight Run was running a nice race at Fairyhouse before a bad mistake and eased down, he should be seen in a much better light here and id be hoping for a good 2nd or 3rd to book his place in the Albert Bartlett. There is a 2m6 race at Leopardstown next month which he could run in after this as well.
Good luck with Midnight Run. I could not believe he went off 7/1 second favourite behind Envoi Allen today. Beaten 50 lengths by the favourite last time they met, he got beaten 57 lengths this time. Guess it was just not one of those commonplace 50 length turnaround days eh?
I'm not surprised he was backed from 22s into 7s as on his best he had good chance to finish 2nd. I was worried that the horrific mistake last time could have finished his season and it looks like it has, obrien running him in this gave hope that he had recovered from that but quite clearly the horse is finished, might have to lower their sights to the champion hurdle after that.
One I quite like for the Albert Bartlett (but can't find a price anywhere) is Welsh Saint. I very much liked how he stayed on when done for pace over 2m 4f at Cheltenham the other day in what looked like a pretty decent listed contest. Whilst Welsh Saint couldn't live with the turn of foot of the first two (Protektorat and Imperial Alcazar), he did stay on well up the hill and looked like a step up in trip would suit. His sire Saint Des Saints has produced some really good stayers including Djakadam, Quito De La Roque, Quel Esprit, Saint Calvados, Aux P'tits Soins and Welsh Saint's full brother, Irish National winner Burrows Saint. I'm not sure what connections plans are but potentially a step up in trip between now and March might point him towards the Albert Bartlett. If I could get something like 66 or 100/1 I would risk a fiver each way on him.
What do people think about lostintranslation going straight to the gold cup then? After his disappointing run at Kempton, and the horse having his wind tweaked, it's not really an ideal preparation for me. Nothing came to light so he 'll go to Cheltenham on the back of a disappointing run. Maybe the run in the Betfair Chase took it out of him or maybe he doesn't act around Kempton... A few questions therefore and I know a lot of people fancied him as the ideal gold cup horse..what now do people say? Personally I will be wanting to steer clear.. especially with no further run before the big one...
I'd prefer his stablemate Native River Pops - been given another quiet campaign and will go for the Denman Chase at Newbury and then the Gold Cup. The 20/1 currently being offered by Sky Bet looks good value to me as he has been there, done that and got the T-shirt. I think he has massive place claims.
his chances must be massively ground dependent. I couldn’t see him running well on anything better than soft going.
Surprised he is not quoted as he certainly looks the type for staying trips. I could see him as a real long distance chaser in the future. I quite like the look of Monkfish for the Albert Bartlett because he has scope and looked stamina packed last time out. It was only a Maiden he won that day but trainer Willie Mullins described him as a 3 mile chaser if the future who is still as green as grass. Apparently there are no big plans for the horse at the moment but you would assume a step up in grade resulting in another win would see Cheltenham come under discussion and the Albert Bartlett would be the only real option for a horse of his type.
