Takeover / Investment - A Different Take

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Chunksafc

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Didn't want to clog up the existing thread, but as I am in an optimistic mood today, I wanted peoples thoughts on a scenario I think my be unfolding or at least in my heads seems plausible about the whole investment / takeover.

Lets start with some facts that can be proven.

1. SD and CM have publicly stated that if we go up to the Championship we will need investment, be that internally or externally
2. SAFC have been actively looking for investment for the past few months
3. 3 very rich Americans have formed a Company using the SAFC address as its registered office
4. Point 3 can only be done with consent from SAFC

Now here comes my thoughts on it.

It has been widely acknowledged that without the Parachute Payments next season, not matter what division we are in, our outgoings far exceed our income

We realistically cannot sell the ground or academy, after all a football club needs somewhere to play and train. Closing more of the ground or the academy wouldn't really save enough money, they would still need to be looked after and would devalue quicker if mothballed.

If as we have been told by SD and CM investment talks are ongoing be that with the Americans or who ever, is it possible that in light of the financial mess we will be in next season, they are quite prepared to sit tight and wait and see what develops?

If we get promoted or stay in this division any investment is not going to be small, if I recall correctly the shortfall is around £15 million just to balance the books, that does not include any investment in players, staff or facilities.

In summary, why would you buy something now, when by waiting 6 months you could squeeze the existing owners even harder as you know they will de desperate for the money?
 
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Chunksafc said:
Didn't want to clog up the existing thread, but as I am in an optimistic mood today, I wanted peoples thoughts on a scenario I think my be unfolding or at least in my heads seems plausible about the whole investment / takeover.

Lets start with some facts that can be proven.

1. SD and CM have publicly stated that if we go up to the Championship we will need investment, be that internally or externally
2. SAFC have been actively looking for investment for the past few months
3. 3 very rich Americans have formed a Company using the SAFC address as its registered office
4. Point 3 can only be done with consent from SAFC

Now here comes my thoughts on it.

It has been widely acknowledged that without the Parachute Payments next season, not matter what division we are in, our outgoings far exceed our income

We realistically cannot sell the ground or academy, after all a football club needs somewhere to play and train. Closing more of the ground or the academy wouldn't really save enough money, they would still need to be looked after and would devalue quicker if mothballed.

If as we have been told by SD and CM investment talks are ongoing be that with the Americans or who ever, is it possible that in light of the financial mess we will be in next season, they are quite prepared to sit tight and wait and see what develops?

If we get promoted or stay in this division any investment is not going to be small, if I recall correctly the shortfall is around £15 million just to balance the books, that does not include any investment in players, staff or facilities.

In summary, why would you buy something now, when by waiting 6 months you could squeeze the existing owners even harder as you know they will de desperate for the money?
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You are wrong re the land ( stadium and AOL)
Unless they are protected by use covenants, local govt regulations etc etc they are ripe for the picking.
That is what happened at Leeds.
They sold them leased back the training and stadium and the rest is history
They were ever so close to going right down the gurgler
 
SD said the shortfall next season would be projected around £5m, not sure if that changes your thinking on it.
 
Also worth noting that they considered selling the SOL this summer and decided against it. Depending how big the shortfall gets, don't be surprised to see them go down exactly that route, and believe me, if do, we are in serious trouble long term.
 
Kittenmittons said:
Also worth noting that they considered selling the SOL this summer and decided against it. Depending how big the shortfall gets, don't be surprised to see them go down exactly that route, and believe me, if do, we are in serious trouble long term.
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Who would buy the ground? what possible use would they have for it apart from to rent it back to us?
 
Chunksafc said:
Who would buy the ground? what possible use would they have for it apart from to rent it back to us?
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Because it’s a whacking great asset in the middle of a regeneration area. They may well only be able to rent it back to us but that just means the club is captive to whatever demands the landlord makes of them - otherwise we end up playing our games somewhere else a la Coventry and the owner can knock it down and build, I dunno, flats or something.

Then there’s the academy - right in the middle of prime green belt land where there’s already been developers sniffing round to build houses.
 
Chunksafc said:
Who would buy the ground? what possible use would they have for it apart from to rent it back to us?
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Exactly what hall and shepherd did and made a great quid out of it.
Our ground was mostly built with Grant's and donations, starting with the land,to eu, national and local Grants for redevelopment and construction of the land
Think how many houses you build on the aol land and the value of them? Buy a cheaper but of land in a more run down area , put training facilities on and lease that back for a decade.
Never come between incorrigible greedy gets and an easy profit.
 
Kittenmittons said:
Also worth noting that they considered selling the SOL this summer and decided against it. Depending how big the shortfall gets, don't be surprised to see them go down exactly that route, and believe me, if do, we are in serious trouble long term.
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Thats when the current owners would see a backlash. Although they own the club its still ours. The thought of the ground having a for sale sign up would be the last straw for the fans that's gave them the benefit of the doubt.
 
FulwellBri said:
Exactly what hall and shepherd did and made a great quid out of it.
Our ground was mostly built with Grant's and donations, starting with the land,to eu, national and local Grants for redevelopment and construction of the land
Think how many houses you build on the aol land and the value of them? Buy a cheaper but of land in a more run down area , put training facilities on and lease that back for a decade.
Never come between incorrigible greedy gets and an easy profit.
Click to expand...
Can't build houses on AOL land, green belt. They had trouble with South Tyneside council to build what they have now on the land.
 
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Kittenmittons said:
Also worth noting that they considered selling the SOL this summer and decided against it. Depending how big the shortfall gets, don't be surprised to see them go down exactly that route, and believe me, if do, we are in serious trouble long term.
Click to expand...

It was the naming rights they were selling rather than the stadium itself, as far as I know anyway
 
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West Winger said:
Because it’s a whacking great asset in the middle of a regeneration area. They may well only be able to rent it back to us but that just means the club is captive to whatever demands the landlord makes of them - otherwise we end up playing our games somewhere else a la Coventry and the owner can knock it down and build, I dunno, flats or something.

Then there’s the academy - right in the middle of prime green belt land where there’s already been developers sniffing round to build houses.
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I cant see how the council would give them planning to build where the stadium is. The AOL as mentioned is on Green belt land and would struggle for planning consent as well.

Selling may raise a few quid, but as you say your then beholden to a landlord. Surely they wouldn't be that daft?
 
DH4 said:
Can't build houses on AOL land, green belt. They had trouble with South Tyneside council to build what they have now on the land.
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Yeah it went on for years to get to where it is now even, and that actually improved the green belt.

No chance of that happening, you’re spot on.

The club own the land around the stadium though and I do remember reading that the rent to the Hilton alone is a big, big income.

Selling the lad could benefit as a kind of ‘advance’ on that rent but long term it would cost the club. We see this happening, we really would need to be thinking about getting the owners out.
 
I think they said they can cover a 5 million loss. Obviously they'd prefer not to, which is why investment of some kind of another is the more likely scenario.
 
Chunksafc said:
I cant see how the council would give them planning to build where the stadium is. The AOL as mentioned is on Green belt land and would struggle for planning consent as well.

Selling may raise a few quid, but as you say your then beholden to a landlord. Surely they wouldn't be that daft?
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If these blokes attempt to sell our home then there really would be riots. And surely Sunderland council would not be stupid enough to allow any new owners planning permission to bulldoze the ground and build houses there. 30,000 people every fortnight spending money in the local economy gone forever? The town centre is like a bomb site as it is, with Charity shops, Greggs, Pound shops and Primark being the majority of shops, what reason would anybody want to visit the town centre from outlying areas?
 
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The above posts kind of add weight to my point.

If you were an investor, you could happily sit back and let this take its course for the next few months and save yourself a decent amount of money. Lets remember 99% of investors or people rich enough to take us over wont be SAFC fans but business men, they tend to just see profits.
 
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