Punters I'm sure have noticed that prediction scores this season have almost all been in the single digits, with the winners in two of the three weeks scoring only nine. The vast majority of scores have been seven or below. In previous seasons weekly winners were generally in the low double digits and as high as the mid-teens.
The reason is the elimination by TC and Duffen of the 3-point score for correct predictions. I'm not sure of the reasoning behind that as it was done unilaterally without discussion on here.
I suggest we return to the old 3-point score for correct predictions and propose a vote on here to make it retroactive to the beginning of the season. Should be easy to calculate. Just add 1 point to correct scores. Anyone agree with me???
1) First, if you are questioning the democratic way the competition is being held, feel free to take it over, warts and all. We published (Duffens & myself) the proposed change in rules at the end of the season in the "final standings" post. In our view, that was the time to bring this issue up, ample time to debate before the new season began. No-one did comment, except perhaps pierredelafrancesca who said he agreed with this season's opening post which included the new bonus award level (2 pts). I'm assuming he read the new proposal.
2) What is the rationale behind the reduction in bonus points (2 to 1) for predicting the "exact score" above getting a W/D/L ( maybe better to define as H/D/A) correct prediction ?
A number of reasons:
(a) It's a friendly competition. The primary objective is to keep participation to a maximum. Should anyone start to appear to be running away with the competition categories, the tendency would be for punters to give up and the enjoyment/challenge would diminish for all.
Reducing the "bonus" from 2 to 1 would ameliorate such a spread, giving punters the feeling that they could recover and stay in the hunt.
(b) There is a certain level of analytical & knowledge awareness skill involved in predicting H/D/A results of fixtures. e.g. form, team composition, injury situation, historical results between clubs, impetus of promotion/relegation momentum. management turmoil and many other subtle factors.
Prediction of "exact score" I would contend falls more into the "random guess" category as team tactics/management nouse rarely combats number of goals scored by the opposition. We don't want this friendly competition to end up like a couple of non-dart players tossing random darts at a blank wall.
Both Duffens & I feel the "bonus" of 2 points is too top-heavy to sustain interest. Give everyone a better chance of thinking through their predictions rather than guessing an exact score. Obviously angling for an exact score based on others predictions can be a useful tactic.
(c) Reviewing a few of the historical seasons records, week by week ( I have been calculating & publishing results for a few years as you know), it is highly likely someone who has "guessed" an exact score correctly will end up winning or sharing a weekly win - REGARDLESS of the value of the bonus.
Reducing the spread however, keeps up interest.
Bottom line response:
If you want to change the parameters, do it at the end of the season. Hold a vote, but make it a separate thread so that the clutter is eliminated.
Mid-season is certainly not a good idea from my perspective.
