Epsom Derby/Oaks 2019

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Grendel

Well-Known Member
Oct 1, 2018
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I have been watching momentum grow behind Aidan O'Brien's Japan in the past week or so. He is single figures in some places now and a best priced 12/1.

Too Darn Hot is looking like a horse who will not go to the Derby. I could imagine that a Guineas win will see him stay at a mile for most of the season, with perhaps the possibility of one pop at 10F in the autumn. The only way I could envisage him in The Derby would be if he were beaten by lack of pace in the Guineas.

With Quorto missing the Guineas, I would be as near as certain as possible that we will hear after the Guineas that he also misses The Derby. Magna Grecia won a weak looking Racing Post Trophy Futurity Whatever It's Called Now at Doncaster and he seems unlikely to stay the Derby trip.

It's a year with a lack of staying quality in what we have seen so far, so is there anything lurking? Money for Japan perhaps suggests that he is the Ballydoyle number one and that we may not see a US Army Ranger scenario where an unraced at 2YO colt came through in two spring races to end up favourite at Epsom.

What of Japan then? Another son of Galileo he is a full Brother to Sir Isaac Newton, who was himself a major player in the ante-post betting for the Derby in the early stages but he never really lived up to that status and a Group Three win as a 4YO was his biggest win. Japan is also a full Brother to Ralph Beckett's Secret Gesture, a filly I backed for the Oaks in the Spring at odds of 25/1 and she went warm favourite after sluicing up in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. Sadly, stablemate Talent thrashed her into second in the Oaks, shocking her trainer as much as anyone. It turned out to be one of the worst Oaks ever and Talent never won another race.

Japan started his career off as many Galileo's do for O'Brien with a moderate run when 7th to Sydney Opera House in a maiden where he went off as a 9/1 shot. Only one winner came from that race since but Japan stepped up with a win next time out in a heavy ground maiden race at Listowel. 1/2 Fav that day Japan didn't exactly shine with a three parts of a length win but sometimes it is not easy to impress on bad ground. Stepped right up to Group 2 company in the Beresford on his final start of the season Japan stayed on well to pip stablemate and favourite Mount Everest in the mile comtest on good ground, just prevailing by a short head.

For me Japan is very short now for what he has done so far. His second maiden run has worked out worse than his first race with zero winners from 17 runs since. The Beresford is a lot better but it wasn't a strong renewal and Japan needs to come forward a lot for stepping up to 12F. He could easily run in the Irish trials or at Chester and shorten still further for Epsom but I am not seeing any value. Ruler Of The World was available at 25/1 before he ran at Chester in his year and it's awfully tight seeing Japan at half thar price already.

The biggest concern I have for Japan is that the progeny of his dam Shayste have not tended to progress well up to now. Her offspring listed on the Racing Post website have career records as follows:-

Twenty Three runs for three wins
Sixteen runs for four wins
Twenty three runs for one win
Seven runs for one win
Eight runs for zero wins

Those are slightly concerning stats for me.

Perhaps this year's Derby will see a Harzand or a Wings Of Eagles emerge from the shadows, so perhaps we should be scanning the market for something at a big price to take on Too Darn Hot, who looks ridiculous at as low as 5/2, when he seems a highly unlikely runner.

Any dark horses out there guys?
 
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I don't fancy the first 3 in the betting and I think we may need to look at unraced 2yos who win impressively on 3yo debut (if there are any). Of the ones that have run I quite like the look of Dubai Warrior and Barbados. Dubai Warrior, same trainer as the fav with a far better chance of staying the 12f. Had a gentle introduction as a 2yo but nevertheless won easily in a fast time. Currently 16/1 but what will his odds be when Too Darn is taken out (can't understand why he is fav anyway)? Barbados is an AOB entry who had one run as a 2yo, a never nearer 6th of 18 btn 6½L by Cruciatus. Nothing special but he took ages to get going, struggling to keep up with the pace but, in the last furlong, he seemed to realise what was required and found an eye catching change of gear. Given it was a fast run race and he is bred to stay much further, that looks an interesting contender at 50/1.
 
Ron said:
I don't fancy the first 3 in the betting and I think we may need to look at unraced 2yos who win impressively on 3yo debut (if there are any). Of the ones that have run I quite like the look of Dubai Warrior and Barbados. Dubai Warrior, same trainer as the fav with a far better chance of staying the 12f. Had a gentle introduction as a 2yo but nevertheless won easily in a fast time. Currently 16/1 but what will his odds be when Too Darn is taken out (can't understand why he is fav anyway)? Barbados is an AOB entry who had one run as a 2yo, a never nearer 6th of 18 btn 6½L by Cruciatus. Nothing special but he took ages to get going, struggling to keep up with the pace but, in the last furlong, he seemed to realise what was required and found an eye catching change of gear. Given it was a fast run race and he is bred to stay much further, that looks an interesting contender at 50/1.
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Unraced 2yos do not win the Derby
 
I suspect not many unraced 2yos run in the Derby, so it's not surprising only 2 have won. A horse does not have to run as a 2yo to be good enough to win a Derby. The horse that wins the Derby will be the one which is best on the day, regardless of what it has done before.
 
Commander In Chief even won easily, thrashing the odds on unbeaten favourite from the same stable
 
Ron said:
I suspect not many unraced 2yos run in the Derby, so it's not surprising only 2 have won. A horse does not have to run as a 2yo to be good enough to win a Derby. The horse that wins the Derby will be the one which is best on the day, regardless of what it has done before.
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Or the one who gets the smoothest passage, isn’t drawn in stall 1.... doesn’t mind funfairs, doesn’t get stuck with Coolmore team tactics.
 
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In the last 25 years we have had 2 Derby winners that were unraced as 2yos. 2 out of 25 isn't bad considering the no of unraced 2yos in the Derby are far outweighed by horses that did race as 2yos. Just another one of those meaningless stats. As always, it depends on how good the horse is. I remember being ridiculed for putting up Harbinger for the KG&QE stakes at Ascot, because he had never competed in a G1 race. But, being the best horse in the race, he won easily. A stat is something which says something like "Only 2 horses unraced as a 2yo have won the Derby" and then maybe the next year "Only 3 horses unraced as a 2yo have won the Derby". and "No horse has ever won such and such a race carrying more than xxx"; until it did.
 
Japan has always looked Obriens most obvious Derby horse but hes workmanlike and might be more of a Leger type.

Line Of Duty is a really nice horse who didnt carry much luck as a 2yo, a jailcase beat first time out then bumping into a decent one in his second start, Great Scot, who won the Ascendant next time and wasnt beaten far in the Racing Post, it was a decent 2nd run in hindsight. He won his maiden 3rd up at Glorious Goodwood, hammered from 5/2 into 6/5, again suffering a poor trip when being blocked multiple times before getting a run up the inside at the furlong and winning cosily. That maiden is working out nicely with multiple winners so far.

He then went to Chantilly for a G3 at 9f and put his experience to good use, bursting through a gap late on for a clear cut win, the horse who finished 3rd, Wonderment, went on to win the G1 10f Saint Cloud race, and interestingly the horse who finished 3rd in that race, Fox Tal, was the horse who held Line Of Duty in on debut and cost him the win, the winner of that maiden is now rated 110 after winning the G3 Somerville, so hes been keeping good company all season without running in the top races.

He then stepped up to the top table in America and produced a high class finish to win going away. As some know, I follow the US racing quite a bit and that Juvenile is looking like a decent race, the likes of War Of Will and Somelikeithotbrown have been winning early 3yo stakes races over there and War Of Will was high up in the Kentucky Derby betting before his last race where he got injured.

That Juvenile was quite a testing mile on the ground and its encouraging that he was so strong at the finish, hes by Galileo and although the dam won the Guineas, her first two foals both stayed 1m4 and both were also by Galileo. Line Of Duty already looks classes above them and he has a very similar look to last years winner Masar. I can see him running a nice trial in the Guineas and he might have too many gears for a horse like Japan. I cant see a better prospect outside the potential champion Too Darn Hot.

Line Of Duty 25/1 for me.
 
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Looking at the current Derby market it would appear that the current lowest quote re an unraced type is the 40’s about Mr O’Brien’s Godzilla. He’s by Galileo out of a mare who won a Group 2 placed in Australia.

Those looking for a lively outsider might want to have a second glance at Mr Charlton’s Great Bear (50/1). By Dansili his dam won the Irish Oaks and went off at just 6/1 for the ’12 Arc. Great Bear’s sole run to date was in November when obliging in an 8.5 furlong Wolverhampton novice heat. A big jump from that to Epsom glory but we should learn more, team, when he hopefully reappears in a Derby trial in April/May.
 
Eddie bin Nesta al-Glesga said:
Japan has always looked Obriens most obvious Derby horse but hes workmanlike and might be more of a Leger type.

Line Of Duty is a really nice horse who didnt carry much luck as a 2yo, a jailcase beat first time out then bumping into a decent one in his second start, Great Scot, who won the Ascendant next time and wasnt beaten far in the Racing Post, it was a decent 2nd run in hindsight. He won his maiden 3rd up at Glorious Goodwood, hammered from 5/2 into 6/5, again suffering a poor trip when being blocked multiple times before getting a run up the inside at the furlong and winning cosily. That maiden is working out nicely with multiple winners so far.

He then went to Chantilly for a G3 at 9f and put his experience to good use, bursting through a gap late on for a clear cut win, the horse who finished 3rd, Wonderment, went on to win the G1 10f Saint Cloud race, and interestingly the horse who finished 3rd in that race, Fox Tal, was the horse who held Line Of Duty in on debut and cost him the win, the winner of that maiden is now rated 110 after winning the G3 Somerville, so hes been keeping good company all season without running in the top races.

He then stepped up to the top table in America and produced a high class finish to win going away. As some know, I follow the US racing quite a bit and that Juvenile is looking like a decent race, the likes of War Of Will and Somelikeithotbrown have been winning early 3yo stakes races over there and War Of Will was high up in the Kentucky Derby betting before his last race where he got injured.

That Juvenile was quite a testing mile on the ground and its encouraging that he was so strong at the finish, hes by Galileo and although the dam won the Guineas, her first two foals both stayed 1m4 and both were also by Galileo. Line Of Duty already looks classes above them and he has a very similar look to last years winner Masar. I can see him running a nice trial in the Guineas and he might have too many gears for a horse like Japan. I cant see a better prospect outside the potential champion Too Darn Hot.

Line Of Duty 25/1 for me.
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I do like Line of Duty and raised him last year. I think he was talked down at the time but I was very temped to make him my selection for the Derby. 25/1 looks a good price for him and I would definitely include him in my 3 against the field (ie Dubai Warrior at 16/1, Barbados at 50/1 and Line of Duty at 25/1. I won't be looking again until we have had some trials
 
If you take this thread being about horses that are likely to win this years Derby at this point then you are taking a huge risk putting forward the idea that one who was unraced as a 2yo could be a contender. I agree with Ron's point 'not many run'. That's a big negative straight away then for unraced 2yos. In fact if we look at the last 2 Derbys there were about 36 starters and only 2 were unraced as 2yos. Not a very good start then for that proposition. There must be a reason for there being so few and I can leave up to the audience to think why that could be. In fact one of those unraced 2yos ran quite well, as Benbatl finished 3rd. But overall statistically putting up horses that have not run as 2yos as contenders is not a wise proposition as they seem to have a very low chance of running.
Unraced 2yos have won the Derby. In fact in the last 100 years of the race 4 have won. I even backed one of them and became the hero of my Uni hall of residence TV room........for 15 minutes. We've had one in the last 10 years (10%), two in the last 30 (7%) three in the last 50 (6%) and 4 in the last 100 (4%). Not a great proposition then. Let's be kind and say it's a 10% chance, hardly attractive. In fact on another thread I said by the end of 2018 it was 90% likely we'd seen the 2019 Derby winner. I'd stick by that. I'd be over the moon if Haggas trained the unraced 2yo Space Walk to win this years Derby but I have to be sensible and look at the stats and say it is highly unlikely. Not quite what Stick said but I understood why he said it.
 
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Bustino74 said:
If you take this thread being about horses that are likely to win this years Derby at this point then you are taking a huge risk putting forward the idea that one who was unraced as a 2yo could be a contender. I agree with Ron's point 'not many run'. That's a big negative straight away then for unraced 2yos. In fact if we look at the last 2 Derbys there were about 36 starters and only 2 were unraced as 2yos. Not a very good start then for that proposition. There must be a reason for there being so few and I can leave up to the audience to think why that could be. In fact one of those unraced 2yos ran quite well, as Benbatl finished 3rd. But overall statistically putting up horses that have not run as 2yos as contenders is not a wise proposition as they seem to have a very low chance of running.
Unraced 2yos have won the Derby. In fact in the last 100 years of the race 4 have won. I even backed one of them and became the hero of my Uni hall of residence TV room........for 15 minutes. We've had one in the last 10 years (10%), two in the last 30 (7%) three in the last 50 (6%) and 4 in the last 100 (4%). Not a great proposition then. Let's be kind and say it's a 10% chance, hardly attractive. In fact on another thread I said by the end of 2018 it was 90% likely we'd seen the 2019 Derby winner. I'd stick by that. I'd be over the moon if Haggas trained the unraced 2yo Space Walk to win this years Derby but I have to be sensible and look at the stats and say it is highly unlikely. Not quite what Stick said but I understood why he said it.
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You've hit the nail on the head Bustino. Not many run. And the reason for that is probably that trainers like to give them at least an introduction as a 2yo. But, if 2yo is kept off the track as a 2yo, it does not detract from their chances if they are good enough. And if they are considered good enough and prove it on the track as a 3yo they will run and stand just as much chance as a raced 2yo. As I have said the best horse will win regardless of whether it raced as a 2yo. I agree 100% that it would be foolish to back an unraced 2yo in the ante-post market, simply because, as you say, not many run. My comment was in the context of the horse impressing as a 3yo. If one turns up in a trial and coasts home it will probably end up fav. We can only wait and see if one turns up but judging by the apparent lack of quality (as regards Derby winners are concerned) it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if something came out of the woodwork
 
Any chance of a 6 year old border collie winning? Excuse my mirth, I am already looking forward to Boris calling it a poor renewal 10 minutes after the race <laugh>
 
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You not remember me saying it was the best form in Europe when Golden Horn beat Jack Hobbs?

You not remember me saying Wings Of Eagles wouldnt win another race and that Cracksman would be the best horse in the race?

Ill call it like I see it, always do.
 
They still do.

Ranking Derby winners in my time, looking back, no getting away from the fact that a few renewals had 1 or less G1 middle distance horses, last years actually looks decent in comparison to some. Pour Moi is probably better than we saw but it was a terrible Derby and he just got up.

1. Sea The Stars
2. Golden Horn
3. New Approach
4. Authorized
5. Australia
6. Workforce
7. Camelot
8. Masar
9. Wings of Eagles
10. Pour Moi
11. Ruler of the World
12. Harzand
 
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