Special promotion As I have always maintained that Too Darn Hot will not win the Epsom Derby, I feel obliged to offer a special promotion bet on this one. 10/1 Too Darn Hot NB there is no NRNB on this one
Gosden says his instincts tell him that Too Darn hot is a 8F-10F horse but that on pedigree he might get further. I more or less ruled him out as a Derby horse when they dropped him to 7F on his 2nd start. The trainer says that the decision on Derby or St James' Palace will be made after the Dante and warns that the colt is only just ready for York and that he would have liked another week to get him primed. Gosden often bemoans races coming too soon, as if they sneaked the race forward by a week and he is always looking on the glass half empty angle. Too Darn Hot has plenty in hand on ratings in the Dante and even if some of the others improve he will either have to fail badly on stamina or regress a fair bit from last season. My gut feeling is that even if he wins on Thursday, they will go back to a mile with him.
Surprised to see Line Of Duty at 8/1 5th choice in the Dante. I mentioned Surfman early in the season as an interesting maiden winner, have to respect the fact he is Varians pick for this race given the bunch of 3yos he has this season, but dont think he has done enough to warrant being 3 points shorter than Line of Duty. Telecaster another we have been talking about for a while, he has a very good pedigree for the Derby if he has the class. Japan my idea of a good Leger horse, cant see him being fast enough to win this and this race looks a bit stronger than the other trials Obrien has been dominating. The race hinges on TDH, if he turns up the same horse as last year and stays 10f then he has a ton in hand, but after missing the Guineas I wont be backing him at a short price here when I like a few of the horses at bigger prices. Line of Duty 8/1 is just too big for me, almost worryingly big, but put him up at 25s for the Derby pre season and sticking with him for now, ill have a saver on Telecaster and do a reverse forecast as ive a feeling he will run a big race here.
Telecaster beat Deal A Dollar at Windsor. That was a walk in the park for the Morrison colt but, as I said at the time, the Stoute trained Deal A Dollar looked a bit on the slow side. Deal A Dollar ended up going to Newcastle next time out and was a heavy odds-on favourite at 1/8. The trouble for Telecaster is that Deal A Dollar was beaten at Newcastle. Deal A Dollar has now finished 2nd on all three starts and he has qualified for an official handicap mark as well. That handicap mark is 87, which is underwhelming to be frank. Looking at Telecaster winning 9 lengths is one thing but wouldn't we expect Too Darn Hot on 126 to make mincemeat of Deal A Dollar? Most of the form lines I see have Japan needing something to find with stablemate Broome. Japan's maiden win is truly awful and the Gp2 Beresford is very weak looking as well. I have to lay him for both Dante and Derby and I reckon Too Darn Hot will paralyse him for pace in the Dante. If I were looking for a bigger priced colt in the Dante I would probably try Nayef Road at 25/1. The Johnston colt hosed up in a handicap last time, earning a rise of 10 lbs to 106. That puts him ahead of some who are way shorter than him for the Dante and he's only 5 lbs lower than 2nd Fav Japan. He may run better than the Rag odds suggest.
Im not really interested in Deal a Dollar Grendel, he isnt in the race. Maiden form isnt worth the paper its written on. I like Telecaster on pedigree and potential, not what he has achieved on paper. He has to step up massively to play a part, they all do if TDH has trained on, but after only 2 runs hes more likely to step up in a proper race than a 7 raced handicapper.
If you look at the last 10 winners of the dante, they all produced a career best to win, Roaring Lion was the highest rated of them at 116, TDH will need to buck that trend and its unusual to see a champion 2yo in this race. Tartan Bearer won a nottingham maiden by 2 1/2, the runner up went on to finish 4th in a Thirsk maiden beaten 5L next time. Tartan Bearer won the Dante with 120 rated Twice Over in 3rd at 4/6.
Timeform review on Sir Dragonet: The Chester Vase is the most significant of the three Chester classic trials. In recent years, it has been something of a Ballydoyle benefit without always being a good pointer to Epsom, for all Ruler of the World followed up at Epsom in 2013, and US Army Ranger went on to finish second in 2016. Encouragingly for the prospects of this year’s winner Sir Dragonet, his 117 timefigure (118 after his sectional upgrade is applied) is the highest in the race this century. Moreover, he has a good deal in common with Ruler of the World in that both were unraced as two-year-olds and won the Chester Vase on just their second starts. Sir Dragonet is currently vying for favouritism in the Derby and promises to be Camelot’s best representative yet Apparently now replaced Too Darn Hot as clear fav
If they can afford it or someone else coughs up. Yet another unraced 2yo enters the Derby/Oaks calculations
Telecaster unlikely to run in the Derby and may wait for the Irish Derby. Connections clearly thinking of the horse's future, having just had a hard race
Load of nonsense, wasnt long ago horses were still winning multiple races on the same day, Morrison will never get another Derby horse in his life, be astonished if they dont run. Thats why Obrien is still odds on to win the Derby, these connections had a horse that good, with that pedigree, and didnt have the foresight to pay a grand to stay in the race, amateur hour, they also sold the half brother for presumably peanuts considering who now trains it, and its just bolted up off 82. By all accounts he isnt a SIr Dragonet type who shows nothing at home, Morrison just after saying hes never had anything like him and has nothing to go with him. 85k is a ridiculous fee but they just won 93k in the Dante and will have to bite the bitter bullet that they made an expensive blunder. Nobody cares about the Irish Derby, lets be honest, its an Obrien benefit. The next important races after the Derby are the Eclipse and King George.
Aidan O'Brien has said Sir Dragonet may not run at Epsom and instead could be supplemented for the French Derby instead. Having started his career at a mile and a half and then won a Chester Vase, it would seem doubtful that a drop in trip is what he needs. I would have thought the colt would need it heavy in France to ensure a sufficient stamina test. Staying has looked like the strong suit of Sir Dragonet and facing a horse with Persian King's pace might be the best way to end the horse's unbeaten record. Connections say it will be left until the last possible moment (Noon, Monday 27th May) to decide whether to supplement him for Epsom. The French Derby is also a race Sir Dragonet would need to be supplemented for and connections have until Wednesday 29th May to make the call on whether Chantilly is the location of choice for the Epsom ante-post favourite. SkyBet introduced Sir Dragonet into their French Derby book but the miserly odds of 7/4 make zero appeal to me. I would not even take those odds for him simply to run in the race. I can only think they are covering their options in case it comes up fast ground at Epsom. Surely Persian King is intrinsically faster than Sir Dragonet and I don't yet buy into the Racing Post Ratings which have Sir Dragonet 2 lbs higher ranked than the French Guineas winner. The Fabre colt has much more solid and fleshed out form than Aidan's suddenly emerging star.
And they say there is no value in the Cheltenham Festival ante post markets .........................
The French Derby wasn't even mentioned after the race. They mentioned the Irish Derby, which would make more sense. I don't know what they are playing at
