Off Topic The Politics Thread
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How dare the EU call Gibraltar a British colony!
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I’m sure the issue with Nissan is more to do with world wide auto trading conditions, which are dire especially for diesels, than anything else. But it’s a major embarrassment for May who made ‘confidential promises’ about post Brexit conditions to Nissan, which the electorate were not allowed to know the details of, in order to get the commitment to make the X Trail (a truly horrible car) here. It will be interesting to see where, if anywhere, they do make it. They have plants in France (via Renault) and Spain, but can easily just import to the EU from Japan, because Japan has a free trade deal with the EU. Wouldn’t it be great to have a trade deal with the EU, Japan, Canada etc?
The decline of the car market actually reduces the power of the frequently rolled out argument that ‘BMW won’t allow a no deal Brexit’. As if BMW and Volkswagen are the real government of Germany. Markets are shrinking everywhere, but nowhere (except China) as fast as in the UK. Even if we stayed in BMW would be selling less cars here, same as everyone else. As the size of the UK market declines relative to others obviously it’s importance does too. Profit margins on cars are very high, producers can easily finesse tariff costs with price changes, which is exactly what they do when selling to the US where most car prices are much lower than in Europe.
On a different subject, does anyone know anything about Damian Hinds, the Education Secretary? He was wheeled out a few times last week to talk about May’s deal and was actually quite impressive. I’m assuming that there is something hideous in his locker.
The decline of the car market actually reduces the power of the frequently rolled out argument that ‘BMW won’t allow a no deal Brexit’. As if BMW and Volkswagen are the real government of Germany. Markets are shrinking everywhere, but nowhere (except China) as fast as in the UK. Even if we stayed in BMW would be selling less cars here, same as everyone else. As the size of the UK market declines relative to others obviously it’s importance does too. Profit margins on cars are very high, producers can easily finesse tariff costs with price changes, which is exactly what they do when selling to the US where most car prices are much lower than in Europe.
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On a different subject, does anyone know anything about Damian Hinds, the Education Secretary? He was wheeled out a few times last week to talk about May’s deal and was actually quite impressive. I’m assuming that there is something hideous in his locker.
They are even planning to evacuate the QUEEN under a worst case scenario/riots/no deal Brexit......!!!
Damn you Brexiteers, this pain will never end
Damn you Brexiteers, this pain will never end
They are even planning to evacuate the QUEEN under a worst case scenario/riots/no deal Brexit......!!!
Damn you Brexiteers, this pain will never end
Prince Philip will be driving her...
You ask whether Nissan will be influenced by a no deal. I don't know, I'm not a soothsayer but no doubt you'll profess to be. I don't even know the reason why Nissan may have put plans for the X trail on hold. They haven't said, but I imagine at least part of the reason is that it's diesel.
You make it sound as if my Leave position is causing the people of the North East to lose their jobs. As a reminder, almost every area of the North East voted to leave the EU.
PS Have you looked at Italy's economy recently, or are you blind to its recession? The Euro was wholly misconceived, and since this is the backbone of the EU, the whole concept is an abortion. Germany and France did well out of the Euro and now even Germany is on the cusp of recession. The UK economy is faring well, particularly considering the turmoil of leaving the sinking ship. How the EU would love to keep our deep pocket
Putting it as it's simplest, Germany is suffering because manufacturing demand, particularly auto, is receding. The UK is holding up well despite transition to Brexit because we're we have a services based economy. I would think the UK demand for German cars would hold up well, which makes our market all the more important at this difficult time for Germany. Italy's debt to GDP is moving towards Greek levels.
All motor manufacturers are under pressure due to the demonizing of diesels, add that to the financial downturn in various countries and production has to be cut. I dropped a client off in Bedfordshire last year and went past an airfield that was filled with as far as the eye could see brand new Vauxhall cars and vans, there has been over-production for years whilst silly financial plans enabled people to buy cars they couldn't realistically afford to own.
Interestingly Germany has profited from the problems of others and shafted Greece in it's bailout with extortinate interest rates. So much for the 'Union', it's an 'Animal Farm' style union where all are equal but some are more equal than others and that is likely to become more pronounced in future...
Chairman of Nissan has confirmed in a letter to employees the uncertainty around Brexit is not helping Companies plan for the future. The new model will be made in Japan. The Government's refusal to take No Deal off the table is clearly costing jobs.
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He’s clearly doing what he can to undermine Brexit and using this as an excuse. Something about the war, something about how we’ll just make our own 4x4s, something about how Nissan hate democracy.
Why would you think UK demand will hold up well when we have a major dislocation to our economy on the cards and demand is already falling faster than in most other EU countries? Wish fulfilment stuff Goldie. The UK is a very important market, obviously, but it’s the global trend that will be worrying car manufacturers more. After all, they can still sell their stuff here post Brexit, even no deal Brexit, how much they sell will depend on our economy and their marketing and pricing strategies.
The debt to GDP ratio stuff is interesting. We currently rank 8th highest ratio in the EU, after 10 years of austerity. Germany has loads of wriggle room, they have positive trade balances, loads of corporate and personal savings, their challenge is getting their own population to spend more. Japan has a debt to GDP ratio of 253%. I think the figures are only important if there is a suspicion that a country might default on its debt (which was obviously the case with Greece). The level of dodginess can be judged by credit ratings and higher yields on government bonds. Germany is AAA and gives 0.7%, France is AA at 1.0%, the UK AA at 1.6%. Japan is only A but yields are about 0.6%. Ireland, which received lots of bail outs including from the UK (because it’s so important to our economy) a few years ago, has a debt/GDP ratio of less than 70% (less than UK) a credit rating of A and bond yields of 1.1%. You tell me what all this arcane self contradictory gibberish really means, it’s all smoke and mirrors.
All this shows is average relative confidence in things not actual facts because it’s all speculation.
All's well in the land of cheese and wine...
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On the UK's demand for cars, this may well be down in large part to the transition to Brexit and thus caution of the UK consumer. Once we are out, particularly if there is a deal, this should rectify itself. There's a global downturn in manufacturing, certainly cars, but we are not nearly so dependent as Germany and, I would think, France.
As to debt to GDP, what you say is interesting, Stan. It's hard for anyone who is not an economic analyst to explain the contradictions. I use a broad brush. Italy's government debt is massive and I can't see how they can survive much longer in the Euro. Germany is in a better state, as you say, but if there's a long term manufacturing decline, they will suffer badly.
I wonder how long the EU leaders can hold the idealogical line on Brexit and inflexible EU rules, before commerce and public opinion in member states demands a more pragmatic approach.
I see Toyota have started building the new Corolla at its Derby plant after a £240 million investment....funny that doesn’t get mentioned by the usual suspects when talking about the Nissan announcement......a bit like Airbus/Boeing......we’re only allowed to have bad news read out to us.
Nor the fact that in the last quarter UK employment was at a record high of 32.54 million. Perish the thought we might actually be doing ok since the Referendum...
That's a fairly meaningless statistic. If the population is continually increasing, it's likely that the numbers in employment will grow too. How many of the 32.54 million are in zero hours contracts or are paid poverty wages?
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Car demand is I think more influenced by confusion about what will be taxed extra in a few years. After years of being encouraged to buy diesel now we are being told to not to, but there is pitiful infrastructure for electric/hybrid alternatives. Result, together with Brexit uncertainty, people put off big ticket purchases. Similar with house sales, but they are due for a downward correction whatever.
Italy’s national debt would be its national debt in € or lire. I am reading Varoufakis’ book about his negotiations with the EU during the Greece crisis. It’s dense, self serving but amusing as well. Greece could have defaulted, could have left the €, could have left the EU. But all these options were worse than the admittedly harsh deal they eventually got. These countries have deep structural economic problems which the EU has masked rather than worsened I think. But the €, I agree, was/is not a good idea as it has been implemented. It needs much more economic policy integration to work as a real single currency.
The EU might change its position at 11.55pm CET on 29th March. But it might not need to.
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A very good point......for years the Conservative government have manipulated the figures by getting young people on pointless apprenticeship schemes that just equate to cheap labour for the companies involved. It’s disgusting and shameful