It does seem that here all the posters are fixed and entrenched in their positions. But if we assume a hard Brexit will happen in 3 months what do you think will happen in the EU?
I offer a view from where I am. I’m in Spain where unemployment is for the young 30% and in total 17%. Pay for the majority is very poor, tax is higher than the UK, and there are no state benefits.
If the UK suffers say a 10% increase in unemployment, thus 14%, and after 18 months is surviving and has several new trade deals in the pipe line - despite what might be seen in the UK as pain - will be seen here as the success of exiting the EU.
The people I talk to here are under no illusion that a hard Brexit will be bad for them. Expats heading home (the majority retired who simply spend UK money here), having to compete on a level playing field with Morocco (just one of many examples) with regard to agricultural products. Less money in the EU to fund Spanish infrastructure projects. Loss of ability to work in the UK.
So, the Spanish will see Spexit looking very attractive even if those in the UK think things look bad. And the right-wing nationalists are already on the move here having gained regional government seats in the last election and increasing their support across the country in the polls. Not to mention the Catalan problem.
And despite the Spanish traditionally being not to effective at taking to the streets, now the French have demonstrated that violent protest can get results, I think times have changed. Already the pacifist Catalans have supporters demanding force be used.
And of course Sweden have just demonstrated one potential route out of the Euro.
Whether you think Brexit is good or bad do you think the EU will be able to handle the fallout? Or do you think Germany will pay just to keep the ship afloat? And for how long will they pay? And at what point will they look to the UK as an attractive free trade opportunity?
If in doubt that not is all plain sailing in the EU have a look at the stats for the Republic of Ireland before any hard Brexit fallout. It isn’t a matter of if a bailout is required but when.
Interested in any thoughts based on evidence.
And a very happy festive season to you all.
