Off Topic UK / EU Future

[duggie2000]

I have watched with equal amusement and total despair at the attempts of adult conversation on this thread and that applies equally to both side of the argument
When we were leading up to the referendum the arguments for leaving were not giving the EU millions of pounds each week for the privilege of being told what to do like naughty school boys. having 100% control of our borders and negotiating our own trade deals with the rest of the world, that in very simple terms is a HARD BREXIT
Because Ms May has tried to please all the people all of the time including some of the large Multi National Companies who threatened transparent blackmail we have ended up with a half in and half out deal that satisfies no-one and solves nothing
I voted remain partly because I did not want my retirement ruined by financial unrest, but now having seen what is really on offer I now want a full exit without the UK paying a single cent to the EU in future
My main concern is that we had to turn our back on the biggest worldwide market at that time, our own Commonwealth, can we re-establish in future what we had then ?????
As a footnote, if us leaving the EU does lead to its collapse in its current form then Germany will have lost the war and the peace
What is essential though is that all of Europe is united including the UK as a future force in the World, just not in its current form
Merry Christmas to all, and fingers crossed a prosperous New Year

 

[Deleted.......]

[/QUOTE] Nobody is putting you in a box Dan, but there is a correlation between voting behaviour and political choice in the UK. which I have produced the figures for in a previous post (albeit a long time ago), with Anglicans being, by far, the most Tory and the most pro Brexit.
But, keeping with the theme, Christmas is a time to put differences aside [/QUOTE]
Actually if the letters page in the Telegraph is anything to go by the bit about Anglicans probably carries some weight! For the last two weeks it's been nothing but the backstop and the book of common prayer...

 

[colognehornet]

It does seem that here all the posters are fixed and entrenched in their positions. But if we assume a hard Brexit will happen in 3 months what do you think will happen in the EU?

I offer a view from where I am. I’m in Spain where unemployment is for the young 30% and in total 17%. Pay for the majority is very poor, tax is higher than the UK, and there are no state benefits.

If the UK suffers say a 10% increase in unemployment, thus 14%, and after 18 months is surviving and has several new trade deals in the pipe line - despite what might be seen in the UK as pain - will be seen here as the success of exiting the EU.

The people I talk to here are under no illusion that a hard Brexit will be bad for them. Expats heading home (the majority retired who simply spend UK money here), having to compete on a level playing field with Morocco (just one of many examples) with regard to agricultural products. Less money in the EU to fund Spanish infrastructure projects. Loss of ability to work in the UK.

So, the Spanish will see Spexit looking very attractive even if those in the UK think things look bad. And the right-wing nationalists are already on the move here having gained regional government seats in the last election and increasing their support across the country in the polls. Not to mention the Catalan problem.

And despite the Spanish traditionally being not to effective at taking to the streets, now the French have demonstrated that violent protest can get results, I think times have changed. Already the pacifist Catalans have supporters demanding force be used.

And of course Sweden have just demonstrated one potential route out of the Euro.

Whether you think Brexit is good or bad do you think the EU will be able to handle the fallout? Or do you think Germany will pay just to keep the ship afloat? And for how long will they pay? And at what point will they look to the UK as an attractive free trade opportunity?

If in doubt that not is all plain sailing in the EU have a look at the stats for the Republic of Ireland before any hard Brexit fallout. It isn’t a matter of if a bailout is required but when.

Interested in any thoughts based on evidence.

And a very happy festive season to you all.

Why the assumption that there will be a hard Brexit ? It could happen only if enough people say it will happen, a little like a self fulfilling prophesy. If such a thing did happen then I would expect a week of chaos, and then emergency regulations brought in. Neither the EU nor Britain have anything on their existing statute books to cope with this situation, because extraordinary situations need extraordinary solutions - so both sides may need to bend the existing rules a little.

The EU. will not collapse without the UK. The constellation of votes within the EU Parliament will change a little now that the northern block looks set to become smaller - and so the votes of Eastern and Southern European MEPs could carry more weight, which will not be a bad thing. You say nothing about the success stories of Europe - about how Rumania and Poland now belong to the fastest growing economies Worldwide as a result of EU membership. If they can do it than Spain can. One of the biggest problems in the EU is Germany - they are potentially the biggest market in the EU for goods but do not function as such because of their export/import imbalance. As long as they export 30% more than they import then they profit from a weak Euro, and also do not have the consumer spending power to stimulate Southern European exports.

I can see parallel societies springing up in Southern Europe - communities doing their own thing based on the idea of self sufficiency. This could encompass local currencies as well - there is nothing to stop countries bringing back their national currencies as a parallel currency to the Euro - towns have done this, so countries can as well. The Lira is still used in some places in Italy.

Life will go on - the EU started with 6 nations and has increased to 28, with a host of countries still wanting to join, so the prospects can't be too bad. Losing one here or there won't be a catastrophe.

 

[colognehornet]

I have watched with equal amusement and total despair at the attempts of adult conversation on this thread and that applies equally to both side of the argument
When we were leading up to the referendum the arguments for leaving were not giving the EU millions of pounds each week for the privilege of being told what to do like naughty school boys. having 100% control of our borders and negotiating our own trade deals with the rest of the world, that in very simple terms is a HARD BREXIT
Because Ms May has tried to please all the people all of the time including some of the large Multi National Companies who threatened transparent blackmail we have ended up with a half in and half out deal that satisfies no-one and solves nothing
I voted remain partly because I did not want my retirement ruined by financial unrest, but now having seen what is really on offer I now want a full exit without the UK paying a single cent to the EU in future
My main concern is that we had to turn our back on the biggest worldwide market at that time, our own Commonwealth, can we re-establish in future what we had then ?????
As a footnote, if us leaving the EU does lead to its collapse in its current form then Germany will have lost the war and the peace
What is essential though is that all of Europe is united including the UK as a future force in the World, just not in its current form
Merry Christmas to all, and fingers crossed a prosperous New Year

You will have to explain that Duggie. West Germany was already a powerfull economic force before the introduction of Schengen or the Euro - why should it not be successfull even after such a collapse ? Also you have a false idea of the importance of the UK. if you think that the survival of the EU is dependent on the issue of Brexit.

 

[Deleted.......]

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[kchorn]

Why the assumption that there will be a hard Brexit ?

It was just the default situation. Perfectly valid to take any other scenario as a base of discussion. In truth I think that is the problem with many discussions. Two debating partiers talking about two distinct scenarios. I just set this one assuming hard brexit. it gives context to any points raised-

The EU. will not collapse without the UK.

,
I don't think the Republic's (for example as the worst case) problems are related to Brexit but as the Irish have said Brexit could certainly worsen their plight. But whatever, any country spending almost half its tax revenues on debt interest has a serious problem. And yes there are success stories in the EU, but those getting there through their own efforts do not want to spend hard fought for gains on bailouts. This we see inside Spain where the Catalans do not want to pay for the many failing regions.

 

[Toby]

I have watched with equal amusement and total despair at the attempts of adult conversation on this thread and that applies equally to both side of the argument
When we were leading up to the referendum the arguments for leaving were not giving the EU millions of pounds each week for the privilege of being told what to do like naughty school boys. having 100% control of our borders and negotiating our own trade deals with the rest of the world, that in very simple terms is a HARD BREXIT
Because Ms May has tried to please all the people all of the time including some of the large Multi National Companies who threatened transparent blackmail we have ended up with a half in and half out deal that satisfies no-one and solves nothing
I voted remain partly because I did not want my retirement ruined by financial unrest, but now having seen what is really on offer I now want a full exit without the UK paying a single cent to the EU in future
My main concern is that we had to turn our back on the biggest worldwide market at that time, our own Commonwealth, can we re-establish in future what we had then ?????
As a footnote, if us leaving the EU does lead to its collapse in its current form then Germany will have lost the war and the peace
What is essential though is that all of Europe is united including the UK as a future force in the World, just not in its current form
Merry Christmas to all, and fingers crossed a prosperous New Year

You complain about a lack of adult conversation then compare the EU to the Nazis

 

[superhorns]

Thank you Father Xmas for delivering BREXIT, much appreciated.

 

[Hornet-Fez]

Thank you Father Xmas for delivering BREXIT, much appreciated.

Take the day off, eh?

 

[superhorns]

Take the day off, eh?

Brexit is for life not just for xmas.

 

[duggie2000]

Cologne and Toby what on earth makes you think I was comparing the EU to the Nazis, that reaction proves my point about adult conversation and where did I mention Shengon or the EURO, it is well established that despite losing the World Wars they started both Japan and Germany recovered financially better than their enemies apart from the USA who alway make a profit for being at war (explains a lot over the past fifty years) therefore they appeared to win the peace having lost the wars
Germany effectively run Europe through their banks therefore they have achieved post war what Hitler failed to achieve through war (won the peace)
The main point which you failed to see or chose to ignore because it did not suit your replies was that on the basis of what was promised during the referendum the only outcome is a Hard Brexit and total divorce from the EU
I did not vote for that but the way things are going that is the only option to meet the result of the referendum because the EU is determined to punish the UK for daring to question the right of the EU to control every facet of our existence

 

[superhorns]

Cologne and Toby what on earth makes you think I was comparing the EU to the Nazis, that reaction proves my point about adult conversation and where did I mention Shengon or the EURO, it is well established that despite losing the World Wars they started both Japan and Germany recovered financially better than their enemies apart from the USA who alway make a profit for being at war (explains a lot over the past fifty years) therefore they appeared to win the peace having lost the wars
Germany effectively run Europe through their banks therefore they have achieved post war what Hitler failed to achieve through war (won the peace)
The main point which you failed to see or chose to ignore because it did not suit your replies was that on the basis of what was promised during the referendum the only outcome is a Hard Brexit and total divorce from the EU
I did not vote for that but the way things are going that is the only option to meet the result of the referendum because the EU is determined to punish the UK for daring to question the right of the EU to control every facet of our existence

Excellent post.

 

[colognehornet]

Cologne and Toby what on earth makes you think I was comparing the EU to the Nazis, that reaction proves my point about adult conversation and where did I mention Shengon or the EURO, it is well established that despite losing the World Wars they started both Japan and Germany recovered financially better than their enemies apart from the USA who alway make a profit for being at war (explains a lot over the past fifty years) therefore they appeared to win the peace having lost the wars
Germany effectively run Europe through their banks therefore they have achieved post war what Hitler failed to achieve through war (won the peace)
The main point which you failed to see or chose to ignore because it did not suit your replies was that on the basis of what was promised during the referendum the only outcome is a Hard Brexit and total divorce from the EU
I did not vote for that but the way things are going that is the only option to meet the result of the referendum because the EU is determined to punish the UK for daring to question the right of the EU to control every facet of our existence

I do not recall that I did actually say that you were comparing the EU to the Nazis Duggie. Toby may have done, but that is his concern. As to your insinuation that Germany is planning to run the EU. to achieve what Hitler failed to do - what planet are you living on ? Germany comprises about 19% of the population of the EU - are France and the UK so feeble that they cannot balance this ? The Germans pay in around 22% of the EU budget - again only a little bit above the relation to population. They are also under represented in the EU Commission, and have no more seats in the EU Parliament than is due to their population. It is also worth noting that the Germans did not want the Euro, but it was more or less forced on them as a result of other nations agreeing to their reunification. In contrast, countries like Italy and Spain were half begging for the Euro. Germany needed time to cope with their own reunification, and getting the former GDR up to western standards of infrastructure - it does not need the extra hassle of leading the EU simultaneously. As for this crap about punishing us for daring to question the authority of the EU. The EU. has allowed Britain a whole row of opt outs, on currency, Schengen etc. more than any other country - of the remaining EU laws which actually apply to Britain, 95% of those where voted for by the British themselves (this is a higher ratio than for any other country). As for 'punishing' ! Did you ever think that they would allow you to keep all the benefits without sharing in the responsibilities. Is there any club on this Earth that allows the same benefits to non members ? I suggest that rather than bemoaning the lack of 'adult debate' in other posters that you look at your own posts in the same context.

 

[Tobes]

Cologne and Toby what on earth makes you think I was comparing the EU to the Nazis, that reaction proves my point about adult conversation and where did I mention Shengon or the EURO, it is well established that despite losing the World Wars they started both Japan and Germany recovered financially better than their enemies apart from the USA who alway make a profit for being at war (explains a lot over the past fifty years) therefore they appeared to win the peace having lost the wars
Germany effectively run Europe through their banks therefore they have achieved post war what Hitler failed to achieve through war (won the peace)
The main point which you failed to see or chose to ignore because it did not suit your replies was that on the basis of what was promised during the referendum the only outcome is a Hard Brexit and total divorce from the EU
I did not vote for that but the way things are going that is the only option to meet the result of the referendum because the EU is determined to punish the UK for daring to question the right of the EU to control every facet of our existence

As if to prove my previous post on this thread ^

 

[Deleted.......]

I do not recall that I did actually say that you were comparing the EU to the Nazis Duggie. Toby may have done, but that is his concern. As to your insinuation that Germany is planning to run the EU. to achieve what Hitler failed to do - what planet are you living on ? Germany comprises about 19% of the population of the EU - are France and the UK so feeble that they cannot balance this ? The Germans pay in around 22% of the EU budget - again only a little bit above the relation to population. They are also under represented in the EU Commission, and have no more seats in the EU Parliament than is due to their population. It is also worth noting that the Germans did not want the Euro, but it was more or less forced on them as a result of other nations agreeing to their reunification. In contrast, countries like Italy and Spain were half begging for the Euro. Germany needed time to cope with their own reunification, and getting the former GDR up to western standards of infrastructure - it does not need the extra hassle of leading the EU simultaneously. As for this crap about punishing us for daring to question the authority of the EU. The EU. has allowed Britain a whole row of opt outs, on currency, Schengen etc. more than any other country - of the remaining EU laws which actually apply to Britain, 95% of those where voted for by the British themselves (this is a higher ratio than for any other country). As for 'punishing' ! Did you ever think that they would allow you to keep all the benefits without sharing in the responsibilities. Is there any club on this Earth that allows the same benefits to non members ? I suggest that rather than bemoaning the lack of 'adult debate' in other posters that you look at your own posts in the same context.

Great post. You keep commenting that we voted for 95% of the EU laws in force. That is irrefutable but what you, and many others do not mention is that we were instrumental in drafting and formulating a significant number especially a lot of those aimed at reforming some of the more criticised policies such as the CAP. Obviously this isn't easily quantifiable. Worryingly some of the ones that envisage trade sanctions for non compliant third countries may come back to haunt us...

 

[yorkshirehornet]

I have watched with equal amusement and total despair at the attempts of adult conversation on this thread and that applies equally to both side of the argument
When we were leading up to the referendum the arguments for leaving were not giving the EU millions of pounds each week for the privilege of being told what to do like naughty school boys. having 100% control of our borders and negotiating our own trade deals with the rest of the world, that in very simple terms is a HARD BREXIT
Because Ms May has tried to please all the people all of the time including some of the large Multi National Companies who threatened transparent blackmail we have ended up with a half in and half out deal that satisfies no-one and solves nothing
I voted remain partly because I did not want my retirement ruined by financial unrest, but now having seen what is really on offer I now want a full exit without the UK paying a single cent to the EU in future
My main concern is that we had to turn our back on the biggest worldwide market at that time, our own Commonwealth, can we re-establish in future what we had then ?????
As a footnote, if us leaving the EU does lead to its collapse in its current form then Germany will have lost the war and the peace
What is essential though is that all of Europe is united including the UK as a future force in the World, just not in its current form
Merry Christmas to all, and fingers crossed a prosperous New Year

Interesting post.... and good to get different views on what you quite rightly say has at times become a divisive and puerile discussion

 

[duggie2000]

I like to occasionally throw a spanner in the works
Most of the views on here are correct depending on wether you are for the EU or Brexit, the expression of those views has often been lacking because personal feelings to individual posters on both sides of the debate
Cologne I am not anti German as such, when I read books or see films about the war between Germany and Russia I am alway on the Germans side
I am totally for a united Europe including the UK but as a part of what the EU has become
I can see a future where at some point we have a world council with elected representatives from Europe, the Americas. Oceana, a united African united Middle East and a united Far East, that however seems a long way off in the current state of world politics, but it is the only future I can see to preserve the human existence on this planet
Lets make a small step here, play nicely children, except we all have different views AND don't take the expression of a different view to yours as a personal insult
Unite behind the hornets and hope that Watford can conquer Europe next season

 

[duggie2000]

I am totally for a united Europe including the UK but NOT as a part of what the EU has become

 

[oldfrenchhorn]

I don't believe that we should be any more critical of the EU than we should of the UK government. The EU has changed, in fact has been changed as Dan says by the UK over many policies. Many of the financial rules have been pushed through to the benefit mainly of the banks and services in the City of London. The UK government has changed, mainly as a reaction to events, and it is very easy to say that one does not like where some of the policies are leading. Government evolves generally, revolution being an example of where there is sudden change. Revolution though normally comes about when things have got so bad anything would be better. Not sure that this applies to the UK membership of the EU.

 

[colognehornet]

I like to occasionally throw a spanner in the works
Most of the views on here are correct depending on wether you are for the EU or Brexit, the expression of those views has often been lacking because personal feelings to individual posters on both sides of the debate
Cologne I am not anti German as such, when I read books or see films about the war between Germany and Russia I am alway on the Germans side
I am totally for a united Europe including the UK but as a part of what the EU has become
I can see a future where at some point we have a world council with elected representatives from Europe, the Americas. Oceana, a united African united Middle East and a united Far East, that however seems a long way off in the current state of world politics, but it is the only future I can see to preserve the human existence on this planet
Lets make a small step here, play nicely children, except we all have different views AND don't take the expression of a different view to yours as a personal insult
Unite behind the hornets and hope that Watford can conquer Europe next season

Not quite sure what to make of this Duggie. I know that many Brits have an obsession about war films - but there was Germany then, and there is Germany now, and they are 2 totally different animals. I cannot recall being on anybodies side when it comes to war films because I never watch them - and war only produces losers. I am not anti anything - and certainly not against Russia either. When it comes to them, we so often forget that they lost 20 million dead in World War 2 - in a war against, not just Nazi Germany, but also Rumania, Hungary, Italy and Croatia as well who were all involved in the attack on the USSR. Not surprising then that the Soviets did not go into Eastern Europe with kid gloves on at the end.