But Walcott’s miss was set up by good movement and/or poor defense. Pickford’s drop was much more fluke-y. That “blast” was not all that hard. If that had happened to us, would anyone really be saying “Yeah, not going to blame McCarthy for that one. That what just way too hard to handle.”
Play this game 100 times. How many chances are going to be set up by Sigurdsson carving up Hoedt and Stephens vs Pickford dropping soft shots that him in the chest straight onto Ings right foot? Granted, Walcott is not exactly the world’s most clinical finisher but I’m still betting on Everton in that scenario.
It’s not a problem with xG per se, but how people interpret “deserving the game.” In this very specific game, I think it’s not unfair to say we were a bit unlucky to lose. In the general instance of Southampton v Everton, or Southampton v X, the argument is trickier.
There’s a distinct difference between saying a team “deserved” a draw or win, and that a team played well. There are plenty of games where both teams play poorly. Or where one team “steals” points despite being generally outplayed due to a lucky bounce which leads to an easy goal, a bad call, some keeper has the game of his life, or there is a bizarre mistake.
Even something like our setpieces. I think it’s fair to say that JWP will generally continue to be awesome at free kicks and that will always be a potential weapon for us. But if that’s the primary basis of your attack, there’s a somewhat straightforward defense which is to avoid giving away cheap fouls and really work hard on set piece defense the week you play us. Whereas it is much harder to work out how to stop Messi, Ronaldo, or even Sigurdsson/Walcott.
In the end, I think what seems to be the prevailing view here is generally correct. No, we weren’t abysmal and just straight out played off the pitch. And yes, we could easily have walked away with a draw and were perhaps in a limited sense unlucky not to do so.
But scoreline aside, watching just that game, you’d probably rather be Everton than us going forward. So I also don’t think it is wrong to say Everton “outplayed” us.
I’m really defending xG here, not bashing it. The problem is when people see xG and it says Saints should have won but in their mind Saints should have lost and then they dismiss stats-based analysis. xG tells you that from a certain perspective Saints could or should have won, and that perspective is valuable. But there are other perspectives, including statistical ones, that say Saints should have lost. And those are also valuable.
In essence, the battle here isn’t about stats. It’s really how you count Pickford’s drop or Walcott’s sitter, or the value of possession or setpieces. Same debates we have always had. Stats don’t necessarily answer those questions, but they can make the discussion clearer and less subjective.
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