But Walcott’s miss was set up by good movement and/or poor defense. Pickford’s drop was much more fluke-y. That “blast” was not all that hard. If that had happened to us, would anyone really be saying “Yeah, not going to blame McCarthy for that one. That what just way too hard to handle.” Play this game 100 times. How many chances are going to be set up by Sigurdsson carving up Hoedt and Stephens vs Pickford dropping soft shots that him in the chest straight onto Ings right foot? Granted, Walcott is not exactly the world’s most clinical finisher but I’m still betting on Everton in that scenario. It’s not a problem with xG per se, but how people interpret “deserving the game.” In this very specific game, I think it’s not unfair to say we were a bit unlucky to lose. In the general instance of Southampton v Everton, or Southampton v X, the argument is trickier. There’s a distinct difference between saying a team “deserved” a draw or win, and that a team played well. There are plenty of games where both teams play poorly. Or where one team “steals” points despite being generally outplayed due to a lucky bounce which leads to an easy goal, a bad call, some keeper has the game of his life, or there is a bizarre mistake. Even something like our setpieces. I think it’s fair to say that JWP will generally continue to be awesome at free kicks and that will always be a potential weapon for us. But if that’s the primary basis of your attack, there’s a somewhat straightforward defense which is to avoid giving away cheap fouls and really work hard on set piece defense the week you play us. Whereas it is much harder to work out how to stop Messi, Ronaldo, or even Sigurdsson/Walcott. In the end, I think what seems to be the prevailing view here is generally correct. No, we weren’t abysmal and just straight out played off the pitch. And yes, we could easily have walked away with a draw and were perhaps in a limited sense unlucky not to do so. But scoreline aside, watching just that game, you’d probably rather be Everton than us going forward. So I also don’t think it is wrong to say Everton “outplayed” us. I’m really defending xG here, not bashing it. The problem is when people see xG and it says Saints should have won but in their mind Saints should have lost and then they dismiss stats-based analysis. xG tells you that from a certain perspective Saints could or should have won, and that perspective is valuable. But there are other perspectives, including statistical ones, that say Saints should have lost. And those are also valuable. In essence, the battle here isn’t about stats. It’s really how you count Pickford’s drop or Walcott’s sitter, or the value of possession or setpieces. Same debates we have always had. Stats don’t necessarily answer those questions, but they can make the discussion clearer and less subjective.
So ultimately, you just go with the scoreline. That’s cool. I think that there will be the odd game where something so crazy happens that even the most scoreboard oriented just have to throw up your hands and say someone was robbed. Because it’s just one game and any number of odd things can happen. But that was not one of those games. And over the course of a season, the scores ultimately do tell the tale. That’s actually the fundamental underpinning of all of the stats. If you come up with an xG measure that says Saints should have scored 100 goals last year, you don’t call Saints unlucky, you throw out that statistic. The more the stat tracks actual scoring and wins, by definition the better it is. The stats in many cases are just arguments over small sample sizes and luck. We will win some games the stats say we shouldn’t and lose some games the stats say we should. It in the end, if you say the scoreline dictates, you’re going to be just as accurate as the stat crunchers.
I just find pawing over endless stats a bit nerdy to be honest. I say this without any irony as I used our goalscoring stats last season to back up an argument yesterday...
It does tend to take some of the fun out of the game. This is a strange time for a nerd fight to break out, though. We have 1 point in two games and I don’t think anyone really feels like that is way unfair whether they judge by their eyes or a spreadsheet.
Cognitive Dissonance describes a conflict between a persons beliefs and behaviour e.g. Saints are crap, I support Saints = Cognitive Dissonance On the other hand, Saints are OK, I support Saints = Cognitive Congruence The former leads to endless misery and is unsustainable
It's always a good time for a nerd fight. Did I ever mention that Michael Obafemi got 7.1 xG/90 minutes last season?
Burnley fans should have just given up before last season started. Poorer squad then us, but they finished 7th. It's football. Anything can happen. No idea why someone would always want to look for the "negative" things in life but there's probably a deeper meaning behind that.
I do sometimes wonder how some people function in life, if this forum is representative. Maybe it is just me, but I try to see the positive in most things, even when things are ****. You are a long time dead and there is no point walking around with a dark cloud over your head like that character from snoopy. I get this is a forum, so we should debate and have different opinions, but OMG, some people are just so negative 100% of the time. Actually, maybe I do get it, they come on here to moan and are happy in their real life. Maybe. Maybe not. Anyway, we lost. We were **** for a bit, then looked better. Thirty six games to go and we can still mathematically win the title. Or get relegated.
Well said no7! I understand criticising the team, or the board, or the manager’s decisions, heaven knows I do it often enough myself. But to announce after 2 games of the season that all hope is gone, and to try and bring the rest of us down to that level of abject misery, I simply don’t get it.
Nope, didn't take it personally at all. Just stating a point of view, which happens to be different to yours. Nothing personal meant either
Though I personally agree with a lot of that I don't really like it when assumptions are made about people's lives. We're (in the main) a bunch of strangers to each other with no real idea of how people are away from this forum. This isn't a dig at you btw no7 but more of a general thing, most of us have no ideas about each others personal lives and someone appearing negative on here doesn't automatically equate to them being the same at matches or being miserable in real life (not saying you've said any of things particularly). I can think of at least one poster who is completely different in real life to on here for example.
I'm distinctly getting the impression that some write vastly negative things just to get a reaction!! Some fall for it....sadly........... I think it very unwise to judge anyones personality from the garbage that sometimes is written on here. Most have a reasonable point of view and are entitled to that view whether negative or positive. Each of us will see that view in our own way. Judging someones personality from the written word is extremely dangerous..............
Let's hope for a win soon then we'll all be happy. I hate this long gap between matches....too much time for introspection. We should get Ralph on here....he'd tell us why everything is hunky-dory....that'll larn you.
A comment in a match report made a lot of sense, to me. Everton got their passing angles right, which enabled them to frequently move the ball quickly, around us. This is something that has bothered me for a long time, about our off the ball movement. All too often I am seeing players putting themselves in positions where a pass is almost impossible and forcing the player on the ball to delay the pass, allowing the opponents to close him down and dispossess him. It frustrates the hell out of me that players see that they are cut off, but don’t then react quickly enough to open up a passing angle. It frustrates me even more when we occasionally DO get it right and quickly pass around players, with one touch football, only to then go back to the ponderous no one to pass to approach. Hopefully Armstrong, Moi and Ings will bring a change to this, as they all like to keep moving, but it needs to improve all over the pitch, including the defenders. One example on Saturday saw Cedric pinned to the touch line with a back pass to Stephens cut off by Richarlison (I think), and a midfielder closing down a forward pass. The obvious move was for Stephens to move forward 5 yards or so, opening up an angle for a square pass, but he didn’t do it. This is just basic football awareness that all players at the highest level should have but we seem to have lost that freedom of movement that previous teams had. I believed under MP2 and Puel that we were too concerned with formation, which affected us going forward, and maybe that is why some players aren’t risking stepping into areas outside their “position”, which makes it increasingly easy to work us out and stop us from controlling games. Sorry for the long post.
