All Smoke and Mirrors

[johnnywarksmoustache]

I haven not been on here for a while and I just wanted to add my thoughts to the mix of opinions among my fellow Townies! I want to make it clear that I wanted MM gone and I was excited along with everyone else when we announced Paul Hurst as our new Manager ahead of the Pre-Season. He strikes me as a very intelligent bloke who knows what he wants in terms of style of play and knows the direction he wants our club to go in. He is the very opposite to McCarthy in philosophy and the way he comes across to us supporters in his news conferences. A breath of fresh air which was badly needed!!

BUT but but...Some things still aren't right namely Evans!

The brave new world of the Paul Hurst era dawns and after the mass flurry of transfer activity over the last few days what are we left with? Well Evans for one has done very nicely in pocketing a cool £5 Million Net profit from the combined sales of Webster, Waghorn and Garner! In addition he has saved a shed load more cash from the much reduced wage bill on top of that! The headlines say that we have signed 9 players but it doesn't tell the whole story of this Summer as you only have to look at the quality players we have sold.

We fanny around trying to buy Windass from Rangers who ends up going to Wigan for only £400k more than we were prepared to offer and to rub it in we then sell Garner (proven Striker at this level) to Wigan into the bargain with no replacement lined up! We fanny around trying to get this Tilt from Blackpool but refuse to pay the extra £200k that Blackpool want even though we are in desperate need of a Centre Back to replace Webster! We are now left with 2 lower league Strikers who now have to fill the void vacated by Waghorn's departure!

We are now left with a collection of unproven lower league players bought for a pittance! The best signing we made this Summer is keeping hold of Bart because he is going to be very busy over the next few months! I really hope I am wrong but we always lurch from one extreme to the other! The plan under McCarthy was to bring in proven "Proper Blokes" to bolster our squad and supplement them with a few of our own kids. Now we have thrown the baby out with the bath water by bringing in loads of unproven players at this level and jettisoning most of our quality players! Can you see this Jackson fella banging in more than 10 goals this season?

Now we are in the situation of having to scrabble around in the loans market to fill key positions which we should have nailed down in the proper transfer window!

I am all for rolling the dice and no doubt some of these players may well turn out to be great purchases but the cynic in me is saying that Evans has engineered this new style footballing strategy to further asset strip our club under the guise of adopting a brand new approach! I feel really sorry for Hurst because he will be made to be the Fall Guy if and when this all goes horribly wrong.

 

[Nuggets]

Good to see you back Warky, I hope you stick around for the season (and good old Spanish, if he's took the time out from watching Barcelona to read this).

Regarding your post, I do share your concerns over the startling amount of profit Marcus Evans has made this summer and the perceived gap between incomings and outgoings. As you state, what really alerted me to this situation was the deadline day departure of Joey Garner and our failure to sign a replacement. As it goes, I think £1.25m is a great deal for us, particularly as Garner is 30, injury prone, and does not appear to have the attributes required for Hurst's new style of football. Having said that, we do look short of experienced players and goals up front. While I believe Jackson and Harrison will potentially go on to be effective strikers for us at this level, we have now lost our top five goalscorers last season (Waghorn, Garner, Celina, McGoldrick, and Connolly). I believe they scored 48 goals between them last season, which is a staggering deficit.

All we can do is trust in Paul Hurst and for the nine players that he has brought in (so far) to repay his trust and ultimately validate our preference last season, which I recall was an emphasis on signing young, in-form, and upcoming players from the lower leagues. Resorting to the loan market to plug gaps at centre-back and up front is never ideal, but it's very much 'more of the same' from us, based on our business over the past several years. I trust that Hurst will identify the right players.

It will be harsh to judge Evans' approach with Hurst based on one transfer window, I would like to think that the profit we've made this summer will go on new transfers in January, a window where we've traditionally spent next to nothing on transfer fees and relied upon freebies. I don't think Hurst will want to operate that way, and Evans seems willing to listen and take on Hurst's recommendations. I also hope that some of the money we've made this summer will go on redeveloping the Portman Road pitch. It needs it!

 

[johnnywarksmoustache]

I wouldn't have a problem with selling Garner as there is much better out there but to sell him and not have someone lined up to take his place is bordering on incompetence! We are now having to rely on 2 Strikers from lower league football to shoulder the burden. At best you can say that its a brave gamble and at worst you can say that it is foolhardy in the extreme! The Waghorn money should have been invested immediately on an adequate replacement. I just worry that we aren't going to score enough goals while our defence is leaking like a pair of whores draws!!

 

[YorkieLancsHampyLondoner]

Warky - I expect us to make a net transfer profit to fund the running losses.

I am very concerned about our forward options and if Hurst pursues the system we played for the majority of the Blackburn game I think there is a chance that we will really struggle.

But it's too early to make any judgement. We may solve this with a loan or bringing in a forward or two in January.

Is Windass really that great? I would rather we waited to sign one or two players who are at the top of the scoring charts in League One or League Two. I don't think these 10-15 goal a season men are where we should be looking.

 

[Westlake33]

With Yorkie 100% here - people don't factor in the following with spend -

* Wages * Sign on fees * Loan fees * Agent fees * Bonuses * Our annual losses.

It's not as simple as we've sold £12 mill lets spend £12 mill or Evans has pocketed £££.

What I will say, is SURELY the wage bill has been reduced? McGoldrick and co would have been on a packet - I know these lads will have got a good pay rise to join us,,,, however might be lower.

Somewhat annoyed Mick's gone and didn't have a pot to piss in for 5 years yet we give Hurst some £££ to spend. Bloody disgrace if you ask me, especially when we were 2nd January 2015,,,, half the season gone and Evans STILL gave Mick sweet FA. Really winds me up but may aswell move forward!

Interesting strategy from Hurst - I'm 50-50 with it. LIKE what he's doing but we're a bit down on experience. I worry about us vs street wise, dare I say Mick sides! Think we can and will get bullied. Also, going to take a while for the new lads to gel - takes time and I expect Hurst to be given it.

Rome wasn't built in a day.

Problem being, it can be dismantled in it. I worry if a few of these lads DO have cracking season, we'll be selling on mass next summer and starting again. So really I'm a bit lost with how in gods name we're going to go up anytime soon!

Another factor is FFP STARTING to bare a little bit of fruit. Sheffield Wednesday the latest to fall foul of this, transfer ban. Makes an awkward season for the Owls. QPR/ Brum also having issues with it, and if we keep our noses clean - I fully expect other clubs to have issues with this. Hull / Villa / Norwich / WBA - I'm talking to you.

 

[johnnywarksmoustache]

A carefully managed evolution is preferable to outright revolution surely?

If you look at the players we have brought in none of them have ever played in the Championship before! I am all for promoting young and hungry players from the lower leagues but this is too much of a gamble all in one transfer window. If you look at our squad now we only have Bart, Chambers, Skuse, Ward, Sears and Knudsen who have all had proper Championship experience! What would have been better was to bring in fewer players but bring in proven quality at this level.

 

[Nuggets]

If you look at our squad now we only have Bart, Chambers, Skuse, Ward, Sears and Knudsen who have all had proper Championship experience!

To be fair, with the exception of Grant Ward, they've all played over 100 games for Ipswich Town and the likes of Bart, Chambers, Knudsen, and Skuse will likely be regular first teamers in the spine of that team. That's three or four regular first teamers with a vast amount of Championship experience at Ipswich Town. I can't imagine many fellow Championship teams have around four first team players with over 100 Championship caps at that club.

 

[johnnywarksmoustache]

To be fair, with the exception of Grant Ward, they've all played over 100 games for Ipswich Town and the likes of Bart, Chambers, Knudsen, and Skuse will likely be regular first teamers in the spine of that team. That's three or four regular first teamers with a vast amount of Championship experience at Ipswich Town. I can't imagine many fellow Championship teams have around four first team players with over 100 Championship caps at that club.

True but on the other hand Skuse is our Marmite player and Chambers is nearly past it!

 

[YorkieLancsHampyLondoner]

I don't think the wage bill will have been reduced by much if at all Westy.... we 28 first team players, same as last season.

And I don't think Hurst had a lot of choice Warky. McCarthy left us with bones and clearly Garner was one of those 'no chance' players in training. What it has done is allowed Hurst to put his stamp on the side. This is already his team and not an inherited one.

 

[johnnywarksmoustache]

I don't think the wage bill will have been reduced by much if at all Westy.... we 28 first team players, same as last season.

And I don't think Hurst had a lot of choice Warky. McCarthy left us with bones and clearly Garner was one of those 'no chance' players in training. What it has done is allowed Hurst to put his stamp on the side. This is already his team and not an inherited one.

I have to disagree Yorky.

McCarthy left us with some highly saleable assets which Evans has taken full advantage of BUT hasn't given Hurst the same amount of cash to spend!

We got Waghorn and Garner last season for a combined £1 Million and sold them a year later for £8 Million after add ons and that doesnt even include the £3.5 Million we got for Webster who Mick bought for next to nothing! You can say a lot of things about McCarthy but he left us with solid foundations on which to build on not totally dismantle like we seem to be doing now.

 

[Nuggets]

Somewhat annoyed Mick's gone and didn't have a pot to piss in for 5 years yet we give Hurst some £££ to spend. Bloody disgrace if you ask me, especially when we were 2nd January 2015,,,, half the season gone and Evans STILL gave Mick sweet FA. Really winds me up but may aswell move forward!

While I agree that McCarthy does not appear to have been given as much money as Paul Hurst, I do believe that Mick's transfer policy was completely different to Hurst and spent more on player wages and signing on fees. Mick largely avoided the lower league transfer market, with the exception of Webster and maybe a couple of others, instead preferring to sign experienced, established Championship players, often on fairly sizable wages (for this club's budget, at least) and widely documented signing on fees to entice the likes of McGoldrick and Chambers over division rivals. We also spent a fair bit on loan fees, particularly as we had a promising Premier League player on loan for the last few years (and three or four of them alone last season). There will have been expenditure involved in those deals. Mick also signed a lot of players (over 80 in five and a bit years), that's a lot of signing on fees and wages. Hurst has signed nine odd players this season, true, but I cannot imagine they're on similar contracts to the likes of McGoldrick, Waghorn, Garner etc. While I feel Mick should have been given more money from the profit he made by selling on players for big fees (Mings and Murphy, Cresswell was before his time), he didn't opt to spend that on transfer fees bar the likes of Knudsen, Webster, and Ward, off the top of my head.

 

[Nuggets]

True but on the other hand Skuse is our Marmite player and Chambers is nearly past it!

Fair point, I don't think either will be here for the long haul, but I imagine Hurst recognises the lack of experience in the squad and will utilise the experience we've listed for this transitional season at least.

 

[YorkieLancsHampyLondoner]

I have to disagree Yorky.

McCarthy left us with some highly saleable assets which Evans has taken full advantage of BUT hasn't given Hurst the same amount of cash to spend!

We got Waghorn and Garner last season for a combined £1 Million and sold them a year later for £8 Million after add ons and that doesnt even include the £3.5 Million we got for Webster who Mick bought for next to nothing! You can say a lot of things about McCarthy but he left us with solid foundations on which to build on not totally dismantle like we seem to be doing now.

Just because Derby were prepared to splash out a fortune for an at best average forward doesn't mean that McCarthy deserves any credit.

 

[johnnywarksmoustache]

So were Sheff Utd and Middlesborough so he was a huge asset to us. On the big transfer dealings Mick hardly ever put a foot wrong well apart from lugless Douglas of course!

 

[YorkieLancsHampyLondoner]

So were Sheff Utd and Middlesborough so he was a huge asset to us. On the big transfer dealings Mick hardly ever put a foot wrong well apart from lugless Douglas of course!

If McCarthy was that great in his transfer dealings then after 5 years we'd be in the Premier League Warky.

I know you were always his most vocal advocate but now it's time to let go.

 

[johnnywarksmoustache]

If McCarthy was that great in his transfer dealings then after 5 years we'd be in the Premier League Warky.

I know you were always his most vocal advocate but now it's time to let go.

Bang to rights!!

The big caveat that you failed to mention is....Under the financial constraints which were imposed upon him! If Evans had shown some real ambition over Christmas 2014/15 we would have been in the Premier League the following year!

 

[YorkieLancsHampyLondoner]

Bang to rights!!

The big caveat that you failed to mention is....Under the financial constraints which were imposed upon him! If Evans had shown some real ambition over Christmas 2014/15 we would have been in the Premier League the following year!

You know what, you could be right, but we could have spent money and not got over the line and then been in serious financial trouble that saw us end up in League One.

There have been loads of times we didn't close a player because of wages - Charlie Austin being one - I don't think we can put it all on one transfer window.

I respect being frugal - I do not spend a single penny in my own business before it is banked and whenever I have done in the past it's proved to be a mistake - but what we should do is break the rules a bit for proven goal scorers in hot form if the money is not ridiculous.

 

[johnnywarksmoustache]

You know what, you could be right, but we could have spent money and not got over the line and then been in serious financial trouble that saw us end up in League One.

There have been loads of times we didn't close a player because of wages - Charlie Austin being one - I don't think we can put it all on one transfer window.

I respect being frugal - I do not spend a single penny in my own business before it is banked and whenever I have done in the past it's proved to be a mistake - but what we should do is break the rules a bit for proven goal scorers in hot form if the money is not ridiculous.

Now that would have been a calculated gamble well worth taking! We were flying that season and 2nd at Christmas! Just one or two more quality additions would have proved decisive in my opinion. The difference that year was that most of our promotion competitors all strengthened in that window and we didnt! The rest is history. We wont get a better chance than that and now we will be lucky to stay in this league with the recruitment policy we have now!

The purchase of Marcus Stewart for example back in 2000 was the decisive factor in us going up!

 

[YorkieLancsHampyLondoner]

Now that would have been a calculated gamble well worth taking! We were flying that season and 2nd at Christmas! Just one or two more quality additions would have proved decisive in my opinion. The difference that year was that most of our promotion competitors all strengthened in that window and we didnt! The rest is history. We wont get a better chance than that and now we will be lucky to stay in this league with the recruitment policy we have now!

You could be right Warky - but what happens if our big signing gets injured after a game or two? It would have really put us on the back foot and having to offload players in the summer. Maybe Evans and McCarthy had that conversation. I never got the impression that McCarthy was frustrated with that way of running things.

Gambles are always exactly that, gambles.

Charlie Austin for me was an example of a signing we could have made that really wasn't a gamble. His stats were and still are ridiculous.

 

[johnnywarksmoustache]

Well we shall soon see how this all unfolds this season!