It would be hypocritical of me to pretend I don't understand what you are saying Yorkie. Deep breath. However. We are all different. We all post in very different styles and there are people who wind each of us up massively - I know there are many who find my posts noxious. However with SH because he is virtually alone on here in his views he gets knocked by almost everyone. Lots of those are quite personal too. We tell him his ideas are not his but from the Mail or wherever, we demand he gives more detail, we don't like that his style is to make a sarcastic comment often and so on. But it is still him. Without him this forum has virtually no debate - it reminds me of the old joke where in a monastery monks told jokes by numbers because they had heard them all before. I have found that when I ignore the things I dislike and only comment on anything that gives me an excuse to puff out my own rubbish I can engage with him as easily as with anyone else. If we are honest he too suffers from people being abusive towards him and winding him up - is our excuse just that he deserves it? Perhaps - but how much fun is it debating with someone who agrees with you?
Not surprisingly the governments assessment papers have been leaked. The regional breakdown is interesting as they show that the areas of the country that have the most to lose are the areas that voted most strongly to leave. It is the areas such as the north east that will suffer the greatest, suggesting to me that the people who live their are the most dissatisfied with their lives.
I don't imagine regions like the North East will benefit much but to suggest its economy will shrink by 16% is absurd. Keep precise numbers out of something which is in the future and is dependent on endless uncertainties. Any prediction, optimistic or pessimistic, is speculative not measurable.
I think this is all worst case scenario stuff Theo and all based on models. The area I work in is doing similar thinking but it's a lot more difficult, and meaningless, to quantify different scenarios in monetary terms so they've pretty much avoided it. I totally agree though that these figures shouldn't be published as they will almost certainly not be where we end up. All it does is kick off another round of "I told you sos" from one side of the extreme and "stop project fear - you should all hang for hating your country" from the other side of the extreme. It's not helpful at all.
Of course it is speculation, but if you are running a business or a country you have to look into your crystal ball, gather together as much information as you can, then set on a course that you think is the right one. You also have to be quick to react when you see that economic forecasts have suddenly been blown off course.
My point is not that you shouldn't look into the future and try to estimate what might happen but rather that you cannot use "16%" in such a context. It implies you have made a precise calculation or have exact knowledge which clearly cannot be the case.
Headline news... As we have feared... Brexiters can not continue to refute.. Surely? Sent from my G3121 using Tapatalk
The government don't want these assessments known and have been keeping them secret for obvious reasons.
Everything was supposed to be kept secret. Now departments don't want to do any work that goes out to others for fear it will leak - and there are some positive bits but nobody wants that to go out as it raises expectations. And, of course, nobody wants to give too much away before negotiations start. The press is being pretty irresponsible here in my opinion - and I would cheerfully slap the eejits leaking this stuff as it's got the potential to cause some real damage. What a mess...
Part of the problem as I see it, is that the EU puts all of their work on line for anyone to read, whereas the UK is frightened to death to let anyone know the good or the bad. There is a paranoia within government as exemplified last week when Joe Johnson was asked a straight forward question about overseas students that he couldn't answer, so fell back on the rather worn out excuse that this might form part of the negotiations. The real problems are only just starting, look at the Japanese in Downing Street today, and unless something has been agreed within cabinet that we cannot be told, there is not a straight forward path to where we might go.
Just seen the scandalous new cover for our passport done by the French contractor please log in to view this image
Today I watched Christopher Wylie giving evidence to a commons committee. To see the MPs sat there slack jawed at what he was telling them was not something I had seen before. His evidence, that he has backed up with loads of paperwork, casts doubts on how our very democracy works. When outside companies can manipulate the news, send out targeted advertising to a specific group of people, count what response they are getting, is all quite frightening. Buy an insurance policy and you give over personal data that can be harvested illegally, and that puts you into a group that companies can try to manipulate. He was quite clear that there had been illegal activity in the referendum campaign, and pointed the finger at some of the highest ranked politicians. Hopefully the police will investigate, as this has become a legal matter now, and not something that an under resourced Electoral Commission can deal with on their own.
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Not one Brexit MP can tell you how you will be better off under any sort of Brexit......The fact is only the millionaires will be better off tax wise and the rest of us will pay the price.....There is no way on earth that our small country will ever get a better deal than the combined countries of the EU.......Thousands of jobs have already gone as Companies scale down their workforce or worse leave the UK altogether.....You never hear this from the Brexit mob.....How many of you are finding your weekly or monthly food shop rising every week or month...Holidays abroad are rising and we are not even close to Brexit and out yet so be in for a massive shock if we do leave and you will need a visa on top of hundreds of Pounds extra you will have to find and should anyone have a criminal past then you wont be going anywhere as you wont get a visa......What an ill thought mess we are in all because of the likes of idiots like Farage, Boris, Gove and R-mogg who told lies and are still telling lies just to feather themselves with more money .....wake up and smell the coffee...
Swan can agree with much of what you say and I for sure was not for Brexit. But I now live in Spain and when you see corrupt, bust, inefficient activities here, on a very broad scale from Ministers to mayors, from footballers to princesses, you realise at some point the EU is going to have to pay for this. And with what is happening in Italy that may be sooner rather than later. I guess I'm saying no matter how bad brexit the EU is not going to be a bed of roses. And sorry it didn't work out for you guys but all the best to you for next season
Well swansea, I found myself quite out of breathe reading that. The additional comma or two would have helped me. Today we have seen Moggy and his mates who sit on the Brexit cross party committee agree that there is no way the country will be ready to leave in 2019, or 2021 and we need to ask for an additional period of transition for an unspecified period of time. Sir Ivan Rogers said it would take ten years to leave, and it is beginning to look as if he knew what he was talking about. HMRC say that business could take a hit of £17-£20 billion a year. That is twice what we currently pay to the EU per annum. I am sure this would have had everyone in the UK voting for it.
As someone who also lives abroad, I think we can all see how loopholes are exploited throughout Europe. We have seen in the past few days how vast sums of money are being laundered through London, and how the UK government has fought to prevent off-shore havens having to expose who has money lodged with them. Individual countries have many powers to prevent such use of the loopholes, but too often do not wish to prevent money coming into their country. The EU is a federation of countries, not a super government, and if they tried to be then there would be cause for concern.
We are better off all together and not on our own....I voted not to join the common market 40 + years ago because we had a thriving industry in mining and steel and others, But the Tories killed everything with their privatizing everything in site and shutting down hundreds of pits......We now have to import Coal from abroad for gods sake.....Our NHS is in a mess and also the railways which are one of the dearest in Europe. Leaving the EU will destroy the UK as we are nowhere near the Great in Great Britain anymore.....
