So if Pool win on Saturday, we need Basel or Benfica to go out in qualifying?So soon, already (I hear you (not) ask) !!??
According to the mighty Bert :
https://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/seedcl2018.html
So with the 2017-18 final on May 26, Spurs will be in CL
draw pot 2 if the Poool lose.
So if Pool win on Saturday, we need Basel or Benfica to go out in qualifying?
Ajax, Fenerbahce, Taurine FC Salzburg, Dynamo Kyiv, Spartak Moscow, PSV Eindhoven all potentially stand in their way in the qualifying rounds, let alone the possibility of the two teams being drawn against one another in the play-off round.Yep. And that is highly unlikely.
Who loses a place to accommodate the CL winners? Had RM and Pool won their leagues, there'd be another place in pot 1?Yep. And that is highly unlikely.
Both be seeded won't they?Ajax, Fenerbahce, Taurine FC Salzburg, Dynamo Kyiv, Spartak Moscow, PSV Eindhoven all potentially stand in their way in the qualifying rounds, let alone the possibility of the two teams being drawn against one another in the play-off round.
Who loses a place to accommodate the CL winners? Had RM and Pool won their leagues, there'd be another place in pot 1?
They've changed the seeding so it's based on co-efficient points (or whatever the hell they're calling them) so for the teams entering the draw at the time of Benfica and Basel, so here's a list of the top-rated teams by each round and their co-efficient pointsBoth be seeded won't they?
Not if the playoff round is seeded.They've changed the seeding so it's based on co-efficient points (or whatever the hell they're calling them) so for the teams entering the draw at the time of Benfica and Basel, so here's a list of the top-rated teams by each round and their co-efficient points
First qualifying round
Ludogorets Razgrad 37.500
Celtic 31.000
APOEL 27.000
Legia Warsaw 24.500
Astana 21.750
Qarabag 20.500
Sheriff Tiraspol 14.750
Malmo 14.000
Red Star Belgrade 10.750
Hapoel Be'er Sheva 10.000
Rosenborg 9.000
HJK Helsinki 8.000
The New Saints 5.000
Kukesi 4.250
Second qualifying round
Basel 71.000
Ajax 53.000
FC Copenhagen 37.800
PAOK 29.500
BATE Borisov 20.500
Dinamo Zagreb 17.500
Sturm Graz 6.750
CFR Cluj 4.090
Third qualifying round
Benfica 80.000
Dynamo Kyiv 62.000
Taurine FC Salzburg 55.500
Fenerbahce 23.500
Spartak Moscow 13.500
Standard Liege 12.500
AEK Athens 10.000
Slavia Prague (6.575) or Jablonec (6.035)
Play-off round
PSV Eindhoven 36.000
Young Boys 20.500
What's important though is that, come the second qualifying round, the draw is split into two paths: champions path and league path, so champions only play champions while non-champions...you get the idea. This is important because here's the teams that qualify via the league path
Benfica
Basel
Dynamo Kyiv
Ajax
PAOK
Fenerbahce
Spartak Moscow
Standard Liege
Sturm Graz
Slavia Prague or Jablonec
...or, if we assume the co-efficient points have a direct effect on who qualifies for the play-off rounds, here are the four league path teams in the play-offs
Benfica
Basel
Ajax
Dynamo Kyiv
At that point it's a 50/50 chance of the two being drawn against one another
Here's how it would break down between seeded and unseeded teamsNot if the playoff round is seeded.
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So doesn't matter nowHere's how it would break down between seeded and unseeded teams
Seeded
Ajax
Basel
Benfica
Dynamo Kyiv
Unseeded
Czech runners-up
Fenerbahce
PAOK
Spartak Moscow
Standard Liege
Sturm Graz
There's another intangible to consider: the first leg of the second qualifying round is played on 24th/25th July, at which point you start looking at the World Cup as several of Basel's teams are regulars in the Swiss squad (although the Swiss team won't be announced until Thursday, so I'm going with the evidence that at least six of their first team have been called up in the past few months) which is something that won't affect unseeded PAOK or Sturm Graz

Not the European trip they probably wanted. Looking forward to somewhere warm and sunny and they end up still in the UKBurnley have drawn Aberdeen in the EL second
qualifying round. Not too far too travel for that one.
Well if another North Sea gas rig goes up, Aberdeen'll at least be warm...Not the European trip they probably wanted. Looking forward to somewhere warm and sunny and they end up still in the UK
Beats the **** out of a trip to godknowshowitsineuropeistan.Not the European trip they probably wanted. Looking forward to somewhere warm and sunny and they end up still in the UK