Effect of Brexit

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colognehornet said:
Brexit, as you have conceived it, appears to be dead and buried. Of course this has never been said, officially, but it is clear that Britain is staying in. The decisive words appear harmless when appearing in working papers 'Continued regulatory alignment'. In reality these words are like a bomb because TM has more or less said that all existing regulations of the common market, all existing trade deals, will carry on in unchanged form, with 3rd party states. If Britain stays in the customs union (which appears to be more or less inevitable) then what remains of your Brexit dream ? You can rule out sovereign free trade deals with the big wide World in that case. In addition the Republic of Ireland has one trump card - it can veto any agreement which is made with Brussels. When the British, despite Brexit (which has been reduced to a paper tiger) in fact remain within the customs union then they become de facto a second Norway. Norway actually pays more per head into the EU. coffers than Britain does now. Fact is, at the end of all of this, the only difference will be that the British delegation will not be sitting in Brussels and voting along with the others.....according to some reports, they will not be missed in this capacity. Face it SH. the dream of Brexit which you had imagined, is dead. The only way that Brexit could have been achieved would have been through a clean break without Article 50. and to resort to WTO rules, and accept the economic consequences.
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This reads like one of frenchie's project fear predictions that always turns out wrong. If the Irish veto a sensible deal they will be the biggest losers in a 'no deal scenario'. The EU will then insist on a hard border.
 
Interesting the Labour spokesperson on Brexit also agrees NI should not lose uniformity with the rest of the UK. The DUP's position has massive support in the commons.
 
J T Bodbo said:
Perhaps this is a good moment to remind everyone that nothing is certain with respect to the future. There is no legally binding unalterable reason why the referendum must be obeyed. In fact one wonders what Parliament is for if a referendum can override the elected representatives ? If you are an MP and it becomes clear , as far as the future is clear, that leaving the EU will be an unmitigated disaster, what would you do ? ( And I do want a reply from anyone saying it won’t be a disaster-I just want an answer to a question that determines the primacy of Parliament. We are told that the referendum was all
About returning sovereignty to Parliament. It seems an odd sort of sovereignty if Parliament is forced to oversee the economic ruin of the country-which is possible.
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Bodbo it is an unfortunate fact that sovereignty lies neither with Parliament nor the people - any glance at party funding demonstrates this. The Tories get 58% of their funding from individual donations and 32.3% from company donations, with only 2.2% coming from party membership fees. One of the main reasons for the poor Conservative election campaign last time around was the lack of time available for mobilizing sponsorship. At Tory conferences there are 3 lobbyists for every one party member. Until this sponsorship of parties is brought to an end sovereignty will remain firmly in corporate hands.
 
colognehornet said:
Brexit, as you have conceived it, appears to be dead and buried. Of course this has never been said, officially, but it is clear that Britain is staying in. The decisive words appear harmless when appearing in working papers 'Continued regulatory alignment'. In reality these words are like a bomb because TM has more or less said that all existing regulations of the common market, all existing trade deals, will carry on in unchanged form, with 3rd party states. If Britain stays in the customs union (which appears to be more or less inevitable) then what remains of your Brexit dream ? You can rule out sovereign free trade deals with the big wide World in that case. In addition the Republic of Ireland has one trump card - it can veto any agreement which is made with Brussels. When the British, despite Brexit (which has been reduced to a paper tiger) in fact remain within the customs union then they become de facto a second Norway. Norway actually pays more per head into the EU. coffers than Britain does now. Fact is, at the end of all of this, the only difference will be that the British delegation will not be sitting in Brussels and voting along with the others.....according to some reports, they will not be missed in this capacity. Face it SH. the dream of Brexit which you had imagined, is dead. The only way that Brexit could have been achieved would have been through a clean break without Article 50. and to resort to WTO rules, and accept the economic consequences.
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and of course May was the sacrificial lamb........to get Brexit in name only and then to quietly go....
 
superhorns said:
Interesting the Labour spokesperson on Brexit also agrees NI should not lose uniformity with the rest of the UK. The DUP's position has massive support in the commons.
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Only because it's being seized upon as an opportunity to keep the entire country within the customs union ffs.
 
Tobes said:
Only because it's being seized upon as an opportunity to keep the entire country within the customs union ffs.
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I'm quite happy to remain in the customs union if the UK regains control of borders / sovereignty and can trade with non EU countries without interference from Brussels.
 
superhorns said:
I'm quite happy to remain in the customs union if the UK regains control of borders / sovereignty and can trade with non EU countries without interference from Brussels.
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Which isn't an option and never has been. If we retain customs union access then we apply by the universal rules
 
superhorns said:
Interesting the Labour spokesperson on Brexit also agrees NI should not lose uniformity with the rest of the UK. The DUP's position has massive support in the commons.
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Tobes said:
Only because it's being seized upon as an opportunity to keep the entire country within the customs union ffs.
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Couldn't have put it better <laugh>
 
superhorns said:
So the whole of the UK will be uniformly outside of the restrictive customs union.
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Which means we'll need a hard border in Ireland which isn't an option.

18 months they've had to come up with a solution that has universal support on this issue, and that old hag informs her supposed colleagues in the DUP the day of the intended conclusion of the agreement to discuss it with her. Absolute buffoons
 
Tobes said:
Which means we'll need a hard border in Ireland which isn't an option.

18 months they've had to come up with a solution that has universal support on this issue, and that old hag informs her supposed colleagues in the DUP the day of the intended conclusion of the agreement to discuss it with her. Absolute buffoons
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No, shenanigans between the Irish and the EU buffoons more like.
 
Remember my post from this morning which is looking like a decent stab at what might happen.

Simply, the only way to obey the Irish and EU demand of no hard border on the island of Ireland is for Northern Ireland to remain in the EU customs union. The only way for May to keep her majority in Parliament is to make sure Northern Ireland (NI) does not leave the EU on different terms than the rest of the UK. So therefore the only way to progress to EU trade talks, and not simultaneously collapse her Government, is for the entire UK to stay in the customs union. It is that simple, and there are no other options.

With the Scottish Tories backing this view the government are over a barrel. Dress it up as much as you like, when a skunk smells like a skunk, it probably is a skunk.
 
oldfrenchhorn said:
Remember my post from this morning which is looking like a decent stab at what might happen.

Simply, the only way to obey the Irish and EU demand of no hard border on the island of Ireland is for Northern Ireland to remain in the EU customs union. The only way for May to keep her majority in Parliament is to make sure Northern Ireland (NI) does not leave the EU on different terms than the rest of the UK. So therefore the only way to progress to EU trade talks, and not simultaneously collapse her Government, is for the entire UK to stay in the customs union. It is that simple, and there are no other options.

With the Scottish Tories backing this view the government are over a barrel. Dress it up as much as you like, when a skunk smells like a skunk, it probably is a skunk.
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I'm pleased you have come up with this prediction - it will ensure it does not happen!!!!
 
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