Lady Perignan 4 45 , balding shrewd placer of horses , this won on easy ground last season , impressively , had a pipe opener the other week, form been franked , at the 33/1 i'm hopeful of a return !
SECRET ADVISOR - Goodwood 2:25 - 5/1 On second study I think Secret Advisor will win this race and certainly can't see him out of the places. Form behind Stradivarius couldn't read much better after yesterday (came from way back as well), has course form, and has shown enough speed for this trip. Just seems the least exposed horse in the race for me that has run to that level of form, and on breeding he should handle the cut in the ground. If taking a hint from jockey bookings you could say it looks like being a match bet between Secret Advisor and Sofia's Rock. If so then I would just give the edge to Secret Advisor on both form shown to date and likely further progression. You can make a case for a few others in the race but I think they'll be fighting for the places if this one puts its best foot forward.
Has the rain arrived or is it going to reach Goodwood today lads? Been pissing from early morning in Ireland so note that for Galway as it's supposed to clear up later, you may not be aware a fair amount of rain has fallen when you see the blue sky on TV.
As much as I like him and had it right off at 7/1 in the Jersey, I think Ribchester is a massive lay today. Hes just a good miler, not a top one, thats why he lost to a middle distance filly, thats why he couldnt win a bad Guineas, thats why his strikerate is only 42%, dont think he has the class of Zelzal or Churchill, and he certainly doesnt have the gears. Hes beat Group 2 horses really in his 2 wins this season, flattered by a soft lead with fitness advantage in the first of those, and while there is a question mark re Churchill bouncing back and Zelzal being good enough, I have absolutely no doubt both are a class above anything Ribchester has run against this season, the rest of the field are not Group 1 class. Every mug in the land will be backing Ribchester today, they got paid on Enable the other day, I wouldnt have put anyone off her, but I do think Ribchester will get turned over. Id be a bit disappointed if he won because hes not that good, id rather see Zelzal or Churchill produce something top quality and I think the French horse is capable, he is the one that most resembles a star miler to me and I expect him to win nicely.
Goodwood latest: still dry... It's grey, it's blustery, but no sign of rain yet. 17C. Bring a coat. Hopefully it stays dry, if it does it could be bordering on fast side of good I think, faster the better for Zelzal. Apparently expecting rain though
Going will be.soft maybe heavy.later if the forecast is right, that would leave.a strange result maybe!
According to the Met Office weather radar, at 10am today there was a large area of rain moving up the Channel and cutting across the South East corner of the UK, so they will be getting rain soon.
Clerk of the course Seamus Buckley said: "The ground has dried out but I don't know how long we'll hang on to that because there's rain coming in around lunch time. I'm unsure how much but 5-6mm would not do us any harm, we'd probably hang on to good, maybe go towards good to soft in places. The way it's drying out, we might need 4-5mm just to keep it sweet."
Ribchester third to The Gurkha in a three-way photo in last year’s Sussex Stakes, just failing to get up. That would be a different Zelzal to the one that has won 4 of his seven races (57 per cent strike rate), was unplaced in last year’s Group 1 French Guineas behind The Gurkha; was third to Vadamos in the Group 1 Prix du Moulin after winning the Group 1 Prix Jean Prat? In June, Zelzal was beaten in a Group 3 race by Taareef, his only start this year.
Just last week you where using the Ravens Pass and Henrythenavigator analogy to point out how a horse can improve after losing in the Guineas, yet now you are crabbing Ribchester for losing in the Guineas. Despite the fact he too like Ravens Pass has reversed form with the winner of that Guineas on a couple of occasions since. The fillie you mention Minding, also beat all the other top milers in Europe including 2 other Guineas winners who where also behind Ribchester that day. That was a very hot race if you ask me, and Ribchester ran with a lot of credit. Minding is probably the best fillie AOB has ever had. Ribchester from what I am seeing is improving from run to run, and is an even better 4yo. I seen him last season at Ascot, and I seen him again this year in the paddock, and he has really developed physically. I don't believe he is a superstar but he is a very very good G1 horse, who for me sets a very high standard. He gave so much a way, not handling the quick ground well at Ascot, yet he still managed to win the race comfortably in the end. The toughness he showed when challenged is what really impressed me. Churchill for me won a very poor Guineas, and is coming into the race after a massive flop, I think even on his best performances he's really got it all to do against Ribchester. I can't be having Zelzal either, he couldn't even get home in a G3 LTO. We will see who is right after the race, but this is one I am very confident about, and is a maximum stake bet for me.
Im not sure what to make of this incoming rain, and how it will affect the Sussex stakes. I don't think the ground is an issue for Ribchester, he's probably shown a preference for easier ground, but Im still not sure I'd want to see it turn into a bog
Ballycasey 25/1- Galway plate 5 35 was really impressed with his latest win in May on heavy ground in Killarney, it showed he can put up good weight carrying performances against decently handicappes horses. This is super competitive all the same but if Ballycasey pops out with the lead early then he may be tough to peg back late on. Ruby opts for stable mate Shaneshill which is a logical choice as he could win this well if putting it all together so Patrick is left with the task of guiding Ballycasey to victory.
I wouldn't place too much weight behind the claim that Zelzal didn't get home in a G3 LTO. Rouget trained the winner of that race as well and it was purely a prep for Zelzal - if ridden to win that race Zelzal would have won that race, that's why he's brought Zelzal over and not Taareef. Here's a bit of collateral form which shows that Zelzal has every chance against Ribchester: Deauville finished a head behind Moonlight Magic in the Meld, Taareef beat Moonlight Magic by a couple of lengths in the Prix Daniel Wildenstein. Ribchester beat Deauville by a couple of lengths in Queen Anne. That puts Taareef on a par with Ribchester, and considering Rouget thinks Zelzal a better bet than Taareef for this makes Zelzal seem well overpriced to me. Of course it's never as simple as that (and Ribchester may well appreciate any rain and the course more than Churchill and Zelzal), but I make this a real three horse race and wouldn't be risking anything on an odds on chance
Has anyone actually watched the ride Zelzal was given last time or looked at the form? Instead of just saying he got beat in a G3. The commentator actually said appalling stuff as he crossed the line. The winner easily beat Al Wukair on his next start.
The filly in 3rd Siyoushake was only beaten a neck by Roly Poly in the Prix Rothschild next start so this was a G3 in name only. The time was 1.34.57, very fast, Zelzal broke the mile track record at Chantilly last season as well so I think the rain is against him today.
