Off Topic Politics Thread

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IS as a "State" is coming towards the end of its days. The area it controls is shrinking rapidly and its leadership has been decimated. Abroad it has been restricted to a few "kill a handful of people with a vehicle" attacks (though the effect can still be many deaths). The Belgian and French component has been degraded massively according to European police sources (source: Economist).

I suspect it'll fade down to the kind of obscurity currently enjoyed by Al-Quaeda. There'll be other groups but their abilities will decline over time. One of the sources of this decline is the willingness of the USA to kill terrorists and suspected terrorists using drone strikes across the world (aka extra-judicial execution). They are slowly decapitating these organisations. Whether you agree with the method or not, it's certainly having an effect.

What matters for the future is whether the rump of the organisations can still motivate people unconnected with them to carry out attacks. Another relevant point is whether people will carry on without the motivation from abroad. Who knows? I predict a decline but then I'm an optimist.

Vin

If you are correct in your assessment, that is good. However, the chilling comment about all this comes from DT when he stated that when he was young, the US always won the war, and that he was keen to see the US winning wars again. So if Iran or North Korea is obdurate in ignoring DT's bullyboy demands, would he be prepared to use the might of the US arsenal to subjugate their Governments to the will of the US President. at the risk of a horrendous fallout? What if a rogue organisation bombed a US embassy somewhere in the world, and there were alleged links to Iran? What would his reaction be? It might make the Israeli over-reaction in Gaza look timid by comparison.
 
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Oh yes, I'm only on about a possible decline in Islamist terrorism. The idiotard Trump versus North Korea is a different matter what with both sides having nukes. North Korea's lack of delivery mechanisms are less of a problem if you think what a 25kt nuke in a shipping container could do to San Francisco or Los Angeles.

And I suppose a direct attack on Iran would lead to plenty of proxy terrorism. I definitely hadn't taken that into account.

Fortunately we can rely on Donald to be rational at all times.

Vin
 
IS as a "State" is coming towards the end of its days. The area it controls is shrinking rapidly and its leadership has been decimated. Abroad it has been restricted to a few "kill a handful of people with a vehicle" attacks (though the effect can still be many deaths). The Belgian and French component has been degraded massively according to European police sources (source: Economist).

I suspect it'll fade down to the kind of obscurity currently enjoyed by Al-Quaeda. There'll be other groups but their abilities will decline over time. One of the sources of this decline is the willingness of the USA to kill terrorists and suspected terrorists using drone strikes across the world (aka extra-judicial execution). They are slowly decapitating these organisations. Whether you agree with the method or not, it's certainly having an effect.

What matters for the future is whether the rump of the organisations can still motivate people unconnected with them to carry out attacks. Another relevant point is whether people will carry on without the motivation from abroad. Who knows? I predict a decline but then I'm an optimist.

Vin

Saw a comment somewhere, suggesting that IS has pretty much the same outlook as Saudi Arabia, so even if IS disappears, their beliefs and way of life will continue.
 
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Happy Birthday EU!! 60 years today!! Look at it. No borders between the member countries so let's cherish the free movement of people, goods, services and money throughout. It is sad that some national Governments try to restrict this very human right. The EU has kept the peace in Europe after it tore itself apart in the first 45 years of the last century.

Your map is missing the 6m walls Spain built around Ceuta and Melilla.
 
So another week begins. Will Madame May take a leaf from Southern and announce a delay to launching Article 50? It will be very funny if it happens. Or possibly there is a postal strike on the day so if cannot be announced on the 29th?

That aside, is the Government really serious in renegotiating every single trade deal it has in place now with the rest of the world. We have a trade deal with Columbia at the moment. But by triggering Article 50, a new deal has to be drawn up? I s this correct Beefy? If that is the case, it is going to take a lot longer than two years and with luck the Colombians will forget to turn up. Result, the UK is stuffed.
 
So another week begins. Will Madame May take a leaf from Southern and announce a delay to launching Article 50? It will be very funny if it happens. Or possibly there is a postal strike on the day so if cannot be announced on the 29th?

That aside, is the Government really serious in renegotiating every single trade deal it has in place now with the rest of the world. We have a trade deal with Columbia at the moment. But by triggering Article 50, a new deal has to be drawn up? I s this correct Beefy? If that is the case, it is going to take a lot longer than two years and with luck the Colombians will forget to turn up. Result, the UK is stuffed.

We will be screwed over.
It is not in the interests of the EU to make our exit easy or profitable, otherwise other countries may want to do the same, and leave.
 
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The latest announcement this morning is that exiting the EU will bring the Home Nations of the UK together: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-39399390

In which world of warped logic is that going to happen, when England is split right down the middle on the vote to leave or not.? If the UK can leave Europe why can't the home nations exist on their own.? If some Whitehall advisor mentions that the home nations would be stronger by being together, then wouldn't logic suggest that that Europe and the UK would be stronger together also.? Oh no, can't have that. That's one political step too far. :emoticon-0114-dull:
 
I should be clear that my problem is not the fact that important and cerebral discussions that may affect the future of the Union were reduced to a pitifully sexist headline.

No, my horror lies in the lack of a question mark: pitiful.

Vin
 
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