A Glimmer of Hope? Star Wars VIII

[aswan_dam]

Putting all emotion aside and looking purely at historical figures since we arrived in the Premier League, I've come up with this.

Number of points required to avoid relegation (being one point more than 18th place, as we can't rely on goal difference):

2011/2012 - 37 points
2012/2013 - 37 points
2013/2014 - 34 points
2014/2015 - 36 points
2015/ 2016 - 38 points

That's on average 36.4 points, let's call it 37. At present, half way through the season, we have 12 which means another 25 could do it.

Are we capable of amassing 25 points in half a season? Here's what we've managed up until now:

2011/2012 (Rodgers) - first half of season 20 points, second half of season 27 points.
2012/2013 (Laudrup) - first half of season 25 points, second half of season 21 points.
2013/2014 (Laudrup/Monk) - first half of season 21 points, second half of season 21 points.
2014/2015 (Monk) - first half of season 28 points, second half of season 28 points.
2015/2016 (Monk/Guidolin) - first half of season 19 points, second half of season 28 points.
2016/2017 (Guidolin/Bradley/?????) - first half of season 12 points

So, on 5 out of 11 occasions (45%) we have got 25 points or more.

Now the tricky bit. We are about to begin the second half of the season with a brand new manager and a team which leaks goals and is generally nowhere near as good as previous seasons. I'm going to give us one third (insert your own factor in here) of the chance from previous seasons.

So that's a 15% chance of staying up.

 

[DragonPhilljack]

Nice one aswan, but your a bit like clutching at straws, forget the stats, we are in need of a complete new back line, now where are we are going to get that? and more importantly who will pay for it? just get used to the reality of dropping back down to the Championship...............

 

[aswan_dam]

Well, I have really..

 

[DragonPhilljack]

I don't want to sound negative aswan, it's just the reality of the situation as I see it, anyway Happy new year!...............

 

[Taffvalerowdy]

The important step now is to focus on recognising our immediate direction of travel - The Championship - and creating & building a team capable of staying in that Division.

I remember only too well what happened the last time we got relegated from the top flight - we hurtled down through the Divisions.

That said, even if we achieve stability, I suspect that we may "never" returned to the PL.......

 

[Stumpy]

Thanks Aswan, I'll take any hope I can get right now

 

[seabreeze]

If we lose our next game to Palace , we could average 1.5 points a game after that till the seasons end and not reach 40 points ....a sobering stat for me . 1.5 a game all season is 57 points .

 

[Bap666]

I reckon 7 more wins will do us 36 might just be enough this season

 

[seabreeze]

Putting all emotion aside and looking purely at historical figures since we arrived in the Premier League, I've come up with this.

Number of points required to avoid relegation (being one point more than 18th place, as we can't rely on goal difference):

2011/2012 - 37 points
2012/2013 - 37 points
2013/2014 - 34 points
2014/2015 - 36 points
2015/ 2016 - 38 points

That's on average 36.4 points, let's call it 37. At present, half way through the season, we have 12 which means another 25 could do it.

Are we capable of amassing 25 points in half a season? Here's what we've managed up until now:

2011/2012 (Rodgers) - first half of season 20 points, second half of season 27 points.
2012/2013 (Laudrup) - first half of season 25 points, second half of season 21 points.
2013/2014 (Laudrup/Monk) - first half of season 21 points, second half of season 21 points.
2014/2015 (Monk) - first half of season 28 points, second half of season 28 points.
2015/2016 (Monk/Guidolin) - first half of season 19 points, second half of season 28 points.
2016/2017 (Guidolin/Bradley/?????) - first half of season 12 points

So, on 5 out of 11 occasions (45%) we have got 25 points or more.

Now the tricky bit. We are about to begin the second half of the season with a brand new manager and a team which leaks goals and is generally nowhere near as good as previous seasons. I'm going to give us one third (insert your own factor in here) of the chance from previous seasons.

So that's a 15% chance of staying up.

Some of those seasons could have been a point less because of our superior goal difference ... certainly not the case this season though

 

[55282]

I reckon 7 more wins will do us 36 might just be enough this season

I like your train of thought.

 

[swans-m]

I reckon 7 more wins will do us 36 might just be enough this season

That will be very tough. Assuming we get zero points from arsenal and Liverpool (our next 2 games) that leaves us with 7 wins from 16 games. Almost half our fixtures will need to be wins.
We are going to have to take a few scalps along the way, hopefully starting with Arsenal, just to ease the burden a bit.

 

[seabreeze]

That will be very tough. Assuming we get zero points from arsenal and Liverpool (our next 2 games) that leaves us with 7 wins from 16 games. Almost half our fixtures will need to be wins.
We are going to have to take a few scalps along the way, hopefully starting with Arsenal, just to ease the burden a bit.

Even a super expierenced manager like Guidolin knew the value of Curtis at his side , the demotion of Curtis by Jenkin's and or Clement at this time sees any glimmer of hope lessen IMO....totally dejected and fiercely angry .

 

[Bap666]

Difference between FG and Clement is that Clement is first and foremost a coach a la Curtis. He knows what he wants to bring to the club and how he wants to do it. Having Curtis there will just muddy the water as Curtis knows how he would coach which may well be totally different from Clements approach. Too many cooks and all that!!

 

[Bap666]

That will be very tough. Assuming we get zero points from arsenal and Liverpool (our next 2 games) that leaves us with 7 wins from 16 games. Almost half our fixtures will need to be wins.
We are going to have to take a few scalps along the way, hopefully starting with Arsenal, just to ease the burden a bit.

Ok how about 5 wins, 6 draws and 7 losses how does that sound?

 

[glamexile]

I can see the target being 36/37 points but this season, unlike previous ones, is our goal difference. With the recent hammerings we have taken we need to be a point in front of the teams below. We wil do well to pick up a point from the Arsenal/Liverpool games but it can be done. Lots of positive thinking called for here.

 

[Bap666]

Wins against these 5 Burnley, Hull, Middlesborough, Sunderland and West Brom
Losses against these 7 Arsenal, Liverpool, Man City, Chelsea, Bournemouth, Spurs and Man Utd
Draws against these 6 Southampton, Leicester, West Ham, Watford, Stoke and Everton

 

[glamexile]

Those win targets are realistic. Some of the draws will be a challenge. I would like us to get 3 points at West Ham and Watford as I will be there

 

[seabreeze]

Difference between FG and Clement is that Clement is first and foremost a coach a la Curtis. He knows what he wants to bring to the club and how he wants to do it. Having Curtis there will just muddy the water as Curtis knows how he would coach which may well be totally different from Clements approach. Too many cooks and all that!!

Ultimiately, the manager is the manager. Who he surrounds himself with is as important as what he does . To cut lose the most knowledgable person left worries me as Clement comes in and decides to go cold turkey .I hope Clement does a super job and will support him 100% , but like I say when his first act is to dislodge Curtis , I see a glimmer fade a bit ... Hope I'm wrong but fear I'm right ..time will tell

 

[glamexile]

I believe we now have a manager who will be 100% focused on performance and getting the team in the right frame of mind and line up. It looks like he is going to run things his way and his way only. To me that's no bad thing as we can't afford to be distracted.

 

[DragonPhilljack]

My take on Clement? He's well up for the challenge, a man on a mission who looks to relish the challenge ahead, and understands all that is required, his focus is what impressed me the most, just hope he brings in the right players that make the difference, 4 or 5 in my view would do the job well enough, CB Captain, RB, Midfield General, Winger who can drop a ball on a sixpence, and another striker................