Not read up on the discussion on here but wanted to put 50 pence in on the US and Iran. Apologies if it’s repeated points etc. Classic Trump power move of ‘this is what I can do to you, so pack it in’ basically. Iran’s military is poor, they don’t have the fire or financial power to fight back alone. they’re planning on closing the transportation for oil to Saudi etc which will obviously cause a big rise in oil prices, I’m not sure how long this will last as I imagine America will just impose financial burdens far beyond this upon Iran crippling them to the point of changing their mind. obviously pride will come into it and Iran will not want to surrender now. I’d be very surprised if anybody comes to irans aid as ally here. Russia military is weakened due to conflict in Ukraine, they do not have the power to help Iran and continue with the Ukraine conflict (imo) and this is Putins main focus at the minute. China wouldn’t get involved due to financial situations (again imo, I could be wrong) and this will likely continue with Iran bombing US sites in and around Iran, then will calm down once the regime shifts in Iran. just my views anyway
I also forgot China is one of the biggest oil customers of Iran. If they close the straight of hormuz it’s only going to piss China off
The interesting dynamic is how this plays with the American public. According to polls today 80% of population oppose military intervention. Given he was elected in part on a platform of staying out of the region this directly goes against the wishes of his base. So an increasingly unpopular president, presiding over unrest and self-imposed economic hardship domestically will be more vulnerable to accusations of unwarranted escalation and pressure over a wildly unpopular military intervention. If Iran is smart they will very much limit any action to purely military (and purely overseas) targets.
