Villa can't sell Benteke in Jan even if they wanted to, he has already played for two clubs this season. Which is bad news, as without him I think they would definitely go down. With Villa, a lot depends on their injuries and when their players come back in. The media has barely reported it, but they have been genuinely savaged by injuries. The core of their squad is gone, and a lot of quality around it; Vlaar, Petrov, N'zogbia, Albrighton, Agbonlahor, Bent, Richard Dunne to name a few. This means that Lambert has had to play 3-5-2 with Central midfielders as centre backs as Ciaran Clark is their only fit CB. I'm not sure how long these players will all be out, but here's hoping longer than Lallana is for us!
After yesterdays performance I think Harry would have to bring in a whole new team! I also remember hearing Gary Neville say that QPR are limited on how many loans they can get as they already have Fabio on a season long loan. When you mention the Harry factor wearing off I agree with you as he has now been there for a number of games and still his overpaid players take to the field with the same poor/can't be arsed attitude summed up well by Pat Nevin on MOTD2. Harry can give as many motivating speeches as he wants but if the players can't be bothered.....
Some stats from Kevin Pullein (football genius) in the Racing Post. He studied data from the last 19 seasons, the number for which there have been 20 teams in the prem; 63% of the teams who finished the year in the relegation zone went on to be relegated that season. Of the teams who finished the year 4-6 points from safety, 90% went on to be relegated. Of the teams who were more than 6 points from safety, 100% went down. Taken in isolation, that first stat makes us 6/4 to avoid relegation, although those odds improve significantly if you adjust them to take account of the following; The second stat makes Reading 10/1 against to stay up - a long shot by any standards. The third stat effectively dooms QPR. Other stats from the same article basically suggest that each of Villa, Wigan and Newcastle have a 22% chance of going down, Sunderland, Fulham and West Ham each have an 8% chance of going down, Norwich weigh in at 2% (50/1), and Swansea and above are safe. Of course as we all know, there are lies, damn lies and statistics. But Kevin Pullein, the author of the article in today's RP, is a man who has consistently made profits from betting on football using his own statistical analyses. He puts his money where his mouth is, in other words.
Carry on performing like that and you will be safe with games to spare. A most impressive performance. My ever changing prediction is now: Reading, QPR and Wigan.
I know you always criticise our optimism, Trixter, but we know we are a good playing side. We've stopped leaking so many goals, now we have to take that next step and get more wins.
Without any doubt, if we play like that for the rest of the season then we'll be fine. But for every performance like that, there's a Sunderland or Wigan or Liverpool type performance from us. I'm not getting too excited or expectant just yet.
Sunderland is the massive disappointment. Wigan was too early. The team allowed themselves to be overawed at Liverpool, but todays result must give them confidence. 2 losses in 10 games is excellent form. Don't care about the Chelsea game (though a win would be nice), but Aston Villa is the one we should win to make life a bit easier on ourselves (and by ourselves I mean those fans of an elderly disposition with sensitive tickers).
Be nice if 2 promoted sides stay up...be good if it was 3 but I can't see Reading managing it without several teams folding.
There is only one relegation place left now. reading and qpr are gone so that makes it very interesting on who will take the last place....there are half a dozen teams at the bottom who could fill the last place and when they play each other it will be a 6 pointer...
Looks almost certain I'd say that Wigan will be without Kone when we play them next month, which will be a bonus. (And from looking at the fixtures, if Ivory Coast make the semi-finals then Man City should be without the Toure brothers when they visit SMS the following week.)
The Villa game is absolutely massive, along with Wigan away at the start of next month. Take 6 points from these games and I'll feel pretty confident about our chances.
Hate this FA Cup break; want to maintain momentum. We haven't performed too well after two week league breaks this season.
