Off Topic Werewolves

The wolves seems to be doing more than chasing hubcaps.

I am simply proving i am where i say i am thats all..

 

I am not sure I would have been so quick to reveal the theory.

The tags were working in the villagers favour somewhat for those in the dark. I suppose it may be better to be open. Basically the tags revealed to me that Obi and Morgan were linked, as Obi said to watch them if he died. So when Obi was proven to be a villager, I have rightly or wrongly assumed that Morgan is a villager. I deliberately logged this yesterday before the vote and we discovered Obi's identity so it could be referenced later. I'm pretty much against suspecting Morgan as a result. He did throw me somewhat when he then threw AFC into the mix, but has since said this was an error.

It is of course dangerous to rely on the tag theory completely as a wolf may have been posting the tags to catch people out. Essentially though I think that would have taken some seriously good gameplay.

Biscan - I can't have him down either way on the basis of one tag unless I have missed one?

There is one other player who has continuously given a clue that moreorless reveals him as a villager. Either he or another has also used the tags to reinforce this.

 

I voted valley....

that vote has to be the opposite way

 

interesting theory...

and of course you might be right............... yes it could be a wolf plot to use both the tags to put one guy forward then kill the other guy in the tag. It would be a great ploy if they thought of it. so say morgan AND obi are inncoent knowing you will kill obi then and it looks like morgan has to be innocent.

I need to know when Obi said his look to the tags i think it was very early. was tag before or after... i can't tell.

The simplest explaination however is this is all far to complicated and the simplest theory which is the oppositie view is the seer or someone has tagged obi and morgan yesterday. of course today the wolves might use that tag to throw biscan in i suppose.

all in all the simple view is usually best and being tricky and convoluted is a good way to have nobody see your tactic.

therefore ok. I'll put morgan down to low suspicsion then and keep watching him and everyone else.

 

ok I am looking at this.

I think we should stick with the plan until 7pm. Valley and Albert have to explain themselves more. I have heard Albert's stuff.

I think we have two guys up so I think we are basing it on a known innocent (not role?) opinion. Based on all i've read thus far i have to say I have nothing better to offer and am happy to have my vote on valley.

Are there any other theories to compete with this one?

 

I saw earlier there were 3 people in the tags marked as innocent and all looked like written by same person.

Now ow could that be the seer trying to pass on te info they found?

Not ot just saying it cos I was one of them but if were written by one person a regular villager couldn't know that info? Then again could be the wolves putting all 3 on there but then that's high risk linking 3 people together in case one is found to be a wolf

 

I would say ignore tags unless someone is able to say who put up which tags.

As stated above Obi has given 2 names from his death bed which if incorrect will in fact be from his death bed!!

I'm not against the thought that Obi might still be playing his game but I don't think we have any better leads at present. I propose we vote for ACS or Valley and then at say 7.30pm look to see how things stand and then decide which of the two gets lynched.

If Obi proves to have seering insight and first name is a wolfie then I say we all go for the second name the following night.

Obviously if Obi is playing "fat boy" games we will know after only killing one and will have to revise plan

Also obviously this plan won't necessarily give a good lead as to the third wolfie but at least the odds will be in our favour.

 

that is a decent point ibwt. at this point we can say the following:

1. Yesterday's list had 2, todays has 3. thats interesting in itself if circumstantial
2. Yesterdays list had 2 and one died. that one was innocent. Thats a fact.
3. todays list added one more name. yours. It could be the same person adding one more innocent. it could be the wolves adding their own in, it could be someone guessing. all are open options.

But yes tags are interesting but open to manipulation. I like the twist.

The dying words added to wolf kill is also interesting and as it is new AND btw I presume from an innocent as a wlf kills an innocent yes? then the dying words can be clues but also assumptions.


Right now the valley/ Albert accusation by obi aligns with my separate suspicion of valley so I am happy to vote valley..... and not you today.

 

I am going to go back to tags again and raise another point.

There is a tag that has had no mention on here yet, and yet to me it seems like a strange one:

"reread PM... wolf can't know town pm"

What does this mean?

I know that in a previous mafia game I was done up like a kipper by a PM from a Mafia member pretending to be the investigator. This tag seems to suggest that some villagers are PM'ing each other. However, there is no way that either can be certain that the other person is also a villager unless they are (or claim to be) the Seer.

The only other possibility is that the doc has PM'd the person he saved knowing that he has to be a villager.

However, this is open to abuse and could well be a wolf tactic to sow confusion. So I am asking - has any villager received a PM from somebody claiming to be a seer or a doc? No need to mention who PM'd (yet), but this tag raises the possibility that we are being manipulated in PM - especially since we ae being urged to kep it quiet.

I will begin by stating that I have neither received or sent a PM from anybody in the game.

Anyone else?

 

So this is sensible. i have asked for any other theories as well.. so lets hear them from all.

Right now yesterday was to put up three people. the royal we fixed on GTILF as an inactive. nobody rushed in did they... we all stuck and i didn't change so i missed 8pm.

The issue is we cannot question an inactive or low talker like AFC but simply sticking them at the head of the pile is bad as we end up working for the wolves if nobody saves them... this is why i raised my suspicion level of valley when he said AFC first to go tomorrow. when OBi has said don't trust valley it adds to it but i can see it might be not right


so...........................

Theories:

1. Obi wan was seer and had three names. HE is the one placing the tags.

2. Obi wan was not seer but innocent. He is placing tags

3. Obi wan was not seer but innocent. he is not placing tags but seer is

4. Obi wan was not seer but innocent. he is not placing tags but someone else including maybe a wolf is.

In the end the tags cannot be relied upon, they are opinion..... maybe they are facts but we have to take as opinion

Obi wan's accusations are opinion too... not said he is seer so.... again opinion

Therefore everyone should stick to the idea of findig your own suspects, keep making a list of all names.. can you make a supposition now on day 3 as to which of the 10 you trust and don't trust... can you make a short list of people who might be wolves? yes this is dangerous as trust can = i forget to keep looking at someone who's fooled me so far.

The seer still needs to think. Today do i come out or not. Is tomorrow better.?

If we believe the tags the seer has max 3 live people he trusts. (includes himself.)

The other hand is the wolves have 7 people in which to find him and someone is telling them they think 3 of those are innocents so they could say hey.. 1 in 4 shot lets kill out of those 4.


The doctor needs to think who to protect. I think i know who i would right now. (no not me)

I think the key to us today is to apply pressure where we have some info, to all individually work out a shortlist based on the info at hand of who might be wolves... and for the seer to decide what he is doing.

finally............ Tomorrow best town case is 2 v 7 (kill wolf, doc protects) or 3 v 5. The 3 v 5 means tomorrow is THE day the game will be in the balance. We need ot be sure we give oursevles the best platform today going into tomorrow.

 

no i have not got any pm's from anyone

 

Does it seem like a strange tag to you?

 

While to go, but we're still tied...

ACS x 3 (Biscan, Less Hope, Trev)
Valley x 3 (MITO, TGE, ACS)

Should Valley raise his vote, I guess it will be 4-3 in "favour" of ACS. That leaves Funky, AFC and Bobby as no-voters at the moment.

 

Sorry for lack of input. Work in IT so normally can contribute a bit but i had a release last night that messed something up so been fixing it all day.

After catching up i think the tag is maybe someone messing around. If there were 2 innocents yeaterday, then the seer would only know 2 innocents today (1 of the innocents died yesterday)

Not sure where less than got the information that I'm nornally really active from. I'm generally very confused so probably don't have the most input.

I like the plan to lynch only one tonight based upon what obi said in case hes lying to us.

I haven't received a PM

 

Valley

 

It was mentioned on the first day's voting I think. Having not been in a game with you before I took this as a clue but it could just as easily have been smoke and mirrors. The quietness is always a concern - but we have jobs to do and not everyone is able to sit at a comp all day so I know it can be misleading.

 

I haven't received a pm

 

As it stands with the voting so far then if ACS is killed and is an innocent then we learn nothing from the voting IF the tags about innocence were correct. However, if Valley is killed and is innocent then we need the Seer to investigate ACS and then we can look at who has voted for Valley to draw attention away from ACS. Clearly not everyone who casts a vote does so as a wolf but it will be a major clue if the Seer can get more info tonight without being killed - and perhaps even then he may have already dreamed and pass on information with his last breath!

 

nev... if either valley or ACS are innocent then we learn that they are innocent

which tag said valley was innocent? I just looked and don't see one but do see another tag.

it says pm was from rolando i guess therefore it means the first tag meant that

If ACS is innocent and dies then why do we learn less than if valley is innocent?

I eman ok I am pushing valley more as i had a sneaking suspicious from day 1 thats not gone down so i'm happy to say ok lets go there and vote for him.

The wolf could be both, could be either or could be neither. The last is why we can't simply kill both on the one night as it'd help the wolves.

My view is yes if poeple are piling on just two then sure wolves have to be amongst but equally wolves won't all be on one so we cannot completely clear one side of vote as a result... fine if we are saying interogate those who voted for innocent the following day.

 

That is more or less what I was saying regarding it being both wolves and innocents voting for Valley.

We only learn more from Valley being innocent IF the tags regarding who the innocents are correct since the 3 mentioned in the tag are coincidentally the 3 voting for ACS (at this time).

My point was based more on a combination of events. IF Valley is found innocent (he could very easily be a wolf and I have no problem with him being up with ACS) then I was suggesting to the Seer (if he is still alive) that ACS should be the next one investigated. IF it was then the case that ACS was a wolf then it would be interesting to see who had been keen to move the vote away from him towards Valley - while still recognising that some innocents would also be voting for Valley based on Obi's suspicions.