Off Topic Werewolves

It is so far from sure fire it has even less chance of making the top 4 than Liverpool! It is a risk. A risk with the possibility of improving the odds but not a possibility of a sure win. However is also has massive potential to worsen the odds.

 

yes flipping about is bad but i feel we all have to find people out, use our gut and try and spot the tells. Someone in the wolf team will slip up. its jist always obvious as hell to them and not to us so keep watching and forcing everyone to at least defend themselves

So far NOBODY (not even morgan) has challenged me to defend myself really. Morgan just put me in a list of three like thats the list that has to be used.

Thats not a challenge. ask me questions. force me to talk and see if i'm a bullshitter

 

This isn't a challenge to yourself, just a plea for info. Having been voted off your mafia game Tasty-stylee on night 1 last time I didn't get to see how people acted. Does IBWT always throw accusations about left right and centre and come up with reckless plans, or is this behaviour out of character

question can be to others involved too.....Morgan, Obi....

 

Actually if you look at my earlier query at the start of today I have asked you "What's your story". Can't say I've seen a response yet. You may care to answer. I have seen a lot of theory and comments but no good explanation as to your vote swinging yesterday.

 

Right I have read all of that. Biscans plan makes sense bar one or two points:

1. If the doctor saved himself last night so we actually only know one villager by him revealing himself - not a massive factor but diminishing odds.
2. I think it is open to manipulation by late voting - i.e. only one wolf steps out of line sacrificing themselves to get two villagers - we still only get that kill the next night surely? Late voting could see mass panic with attempted vote switching surely, this could end up with worst case scenario with 1 wolf going, and a load of ties. The problem is there is a timed cut off point so you could have people attempting to switch and votes getting discounted if wolves time it right.

I am not sure about that plan, it is very open to manipulation and could result in a very bad night unless someone can offer a way to counter changes. High risk for me.

 

This for me. The plan has some merit in an ideal scenario - but takes no account of the manipulation and response to that manipulation. Worst case scenario we lose a number of villagers AND the doctor.

 

I'm sorry but this is very anit town

"take one for the team"

the doctor is a power role. I think there is a possibility IBWT is playing us here. In one mafia game he was don and deliberately took no actions day one and two to do just this.

The doctor is a hidden role, and has absolutely no need to come out. The doctor cannot be sure unless he got a pm saying he stopped a wolf that in fact he did. only the doctor knows who he protected and I don't know if the doctor for sure knows if werewolves struck

Do we know the wolves HAVE to kill?

The only time its good for the town that a role comes out is if it is the big finale to kill the wolves off.

THe doctor as of today can at best make a team of 2 known town here. thats not enough IMO.

Therefore my suspiciions raise a nothc on you IBWT.

 

one final point.

IBWT I have voted for you and you are ebing quite careful to not engage me...

i ask you directly.... any response to me actually voting on you are are you deliverately ignoring

 

I think Rolando said that they have to agree and each message him the same name or there would be no attack (can't find the post) but last night we know that there was an attack so I think we can assume the Dr was working last night.

 

recap so far (I think)

AFCFTW - 2 votes (IBWT, LHTN)

IBWT - 1 vote (MITO)

 

My story is:

1. I suggest all should read thier pms

2. I am a lowly townie.

3. ON day 1 I planned to sew confusion and trip up a wolf. I had no targets but scatter guns votes about to see what would occur. I saw 2 particular things.

4. I engaged anyone i could when they were on to try and get some info of any type. Yesterday you answered fairly well and i left you then... did i not?

5. After yesterday I have some small crumbs and i posted a full list of every one. Today is not a day for confusing the town as we need to start geting a clue and not going all over the place.

6. I have discussed pros and cons of the lynch everyone plan. Many seem to agree that putting our roles out there is bad. I am personally against the plan as it has thae element of needing a perfect start point that we know is true and we simply can't have that can we?

7. I am wanting everyone to prod everyone else and am out there doing it. If that raises suspicions fine but ask... when the time comes were my actions pro or anti town.

8. I got a bit of info that i can act on today. thats why i am on IBWT's case. Sure it could simply be wrong but i want to hear from him not say what he should say. I could have others i want to prod too.

 

you are absolutely correct. trust nobody, watch everybody.

 

honestly... I don't hold much store with priors. we have had many cases in our games of priors deciding things that amakes mafia job easier.

I nthis case... IBWT is acting how he thinks this game should go... if the question is: Is there a tell i see? the answer is I only suspect due to him shifting his vote so fast once i piped up with a oh is valley playing i'll vote for him play.

Thats where i am coming from. IBWT is not staying silent, he's not playing the same as last game we played either so I have to judge on this game not those ones.

And no i did not have a pregame plant to knock my fellow mod off for sport.

 

SO i checked back to be sure.

Neville is right the update says the wolves attacked. this means the doctor must have saved someone right?

SO this is important info.

 

Guys I';ve been violently sick today and don't think I'll be posting agin today. Not looked through today's posts and probably won't until much later.
As an advocate of flushing out hte quiet ones, I guess this puts me in th firing line, but so be it. I am a villager, but I know yo have no means to believe me - and I don't feel up to putting forwrd a stronger case right now, so vote away. Good luck villagers.

 

Whoever the doctor is they will know who was attacked and they may be able to start looking for clues as to why that person was attacked (even if it was themselves). Who did they vote for? What did they say? Etc. This info would be helpful but must be passed on very very carefully.

If the Doc saved someone else then that is one other person that the doc knows they can trust. The doc can also help move the voting away from this person - although the danger is that if they move it away from one villager to another villager it could look like they were saving a werewolf.

The Seer by now should either have two names that they can trust or even possibly the name of a werewolf. This has to be passed on just as carefully as the wolves would also like to kill the Seer.

We all need to be on the lookout for little clues that either of these people could be leaving.

 

Okay MITO you have me convinced for now.

I'm not in favour of IBWT's plan (I think it's his) as to open to late manipulation by werewolves and the issue of "silent" villagers.

For example how many have not yet spoken today. Not criticising them it may be work etc. If we need all to agree then it may not work anyway if Obi is Villager and is not back. Has he voted?

I suggest we go for the 3 names and see if we can watch any late voting changes/patterns. Problem is we could lose 2 or 3 that way if no werewolf in the 3.

If we are to go for 3 then I would suggest
1. Funky
2. IBWT - if I believe what MITO is saying
3. AFC - he's just too quiet.(Edit sorry had ACS before)

 

I do agree.

the doctor now has an unwitting ally. The doctor went out of their way to save said person for some reason. Whatever that reason is would be interesting but we can't know.

you are right the seers should have people they know are clean too.

As this is a no recruit game we should tease out what this means.

1. IF the seer does have 2 good guys. then the seer can start thinking how to use that... there will come a point when a known Town team is of advantage. perhaps when it is more than 4? I don't know.

2. If the seer gets enough names they have to balance the risk of dying at night with the info against giving this info. quite a task I think.

Overall today is not the day to reveal IMO.

 

If they all remove their vote then it's obvious as well... You want to form a plan where the only people not willing to follow are those which it will defintely hurt or those that will obviously be wolves if they don't follow...

 

So... ok thats a bit easy

But i want to make a point. I voted yesterday wildly. you should note i actually took my vote and put it late onto AFC... on day one i figured having the vote on him would be interesting.

We had a three way tie and tash died as an inactive townie.

If there's no action on someone like afc it can either mean mafia have kahoona's or he really is just innocent. I don't know... but bare it in mind.

inactive does not auto mean guilt.

And of course I could be compeltely wrong about IBWT everyone form thier own opinions.

IBWT... what you say about my theory about you then? defense please.