wenty from Ten

[Xsnaggle]

When I've looked at how City were doing each year I always try to break the 46 league games down into parts. In principle you need to secure 20 points from every 10 games to secure promotion automatically. If you work on that you'll have 90+ points and historically that's enough.
If after the first 10 you only have 18 points you need to score 22 form the next ten, thats at least 7 wins from 10. If you score less than 20 in that ten it puts pressure of for the next, and so on. Equally if you can score 23 in your first ten and 21 or more in your second it puts you in a good place when it comes to the last part of the season.
so where are City???
13 points from 7 games. That means they need 7 from the next 3 to hit 20. If the had held the lead on sat they'd be cruising but they are putting pressure on themselves. They will struggle to hit 20 now, so need to score more than that in the next 10.
It may sound silly but its a simple rule of thumb and if you apply it across a season and see the teams that acheive it you will see it works.
does everyone think City can do it playing how they are now?
Sadly I doubt it, and I have always been one to tell people to keep the faith. What do you think?

 

[Xsnaggle]

Grrrr, the damn edit thing won't let me adjust the title. Of course it should begin with a Capital T. I hate this laptop. Can a Mod do it??

 

[isawronnymoorescore]

I think over the course of the season we will achieve 90+ and it very much depends on how MM plays the team. If the majority of the games are played 451 i cannot see us for the automatics, he needs to be a little more ambitious and have faith in the quality of players we now have at the club.

 

[remote]

Lots have people have talked of two points a game but the thought of four and a bit 'mini leagues' is an interesting one Xsnaggle. 20 points every 10 games sounds more acheivable than 90 points over the season. Silly I know, but that's how it seems to me. I look forward to the first instalment.

 

[iggypop]

I think over the course of the season we will achieve 90+ and it very much depends on how MM plays the team. If the majority of the games are played 451 i cannot see us for the automatics, he needs to be a little more ambitious and have faith in the quality of players we now have at the club.

Agree with this, playing 4-5-1 we will probably scrape enough points to finish in the top six. If you want automatic you have to be a bit more ambitious and also put games to bed (which you are unlikely to do with 4-5-1, at least the way we play it).

 

[swanseaandproud]

cardiff always start well that gives false hope, thats not the problem. the problem you have is when it gets to the business end you seem to go to pieces and bottle it....I would bet you will do it again as there are bigger better sides that will come good and plough on to the top pushing you back to playoffs at best but more than likely outside the playoffs.....Its what cardiff do nearly every season....

 

[john hughs]

So says the one season wonders ............................long way down on the way back to oblivion and dont you forget it gypo,

 

[BluefromBridgend]

"Outside the play offs"? No, despite our failings in the playoffs, we have been in the play offs for the last 3 seasons.

Dai, get your facts right or clear off. In fact, clear off even if you get your facts right - very rare I know.

 

[Stevoldinho]

cardiff always start well that gives false hope, thats not the problem. the problem you have is when it gets to the business end you seem to go to pieces and bottle it....I would bet you will do it again as there are bigger better sides that will come good and plough on to the top pushing you back to playoffs at best but more than likely outside the playoffs.....Its what cardiff do nearly every season....

Last 'pearls of wisdom' from you was Wolves would have far to much for us and we'd be lucky to draw...............

Just get on with hoping other PL managers don't follow Evertons lead of pressing you high up the pitch or you'll be in for a tough season. They made beating you comfortably look very very easy.