Tips / Bets Wednesday 4th. August 2021

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I will take a chance on Top Boy in the opener at Bath. Runs this track well and must have every chance racing of this low handicap mark. Well drawn and David Egan an eyecatching booking.
 
Morning, all. Hope everyone A-OK.

Firstly a bit of housekeeping re Relative who I put up for Monday. Disappointed in only finishing 7th but as the RP reported did appear as green as grass and when asked a serious question appeared totally clueless re what she needed to do. With that experience behind her is I think worth another chance next time. She was also a bit strange in the market. Opened 11/1, drifted to as big as 14's at one point in the morning, before then being gradually backed down to 9/1 when the market opened on-course and then further supported into 11/2 come 'stalls opening'. In conclusion yes disappointing but I think worth another chance next time.

And one other thing. Yesterday one of Mr Charlton's was allocated a Flat mark of 38, yes just 38! Has Beckhampton ever housed one so low?!? Will be so interesting to see how he places this one (Next Second) off this bargain basement mark. Even more so when you consider Next Second's dam is a daughter of Milligram won the Coronation Stakes and the QEII!

Good luck all.
 
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The 12.50 at Clairefontaine is an interesting affair with several winners involved. Jean-Claude Rouget's Zelda was a smooth winner at Saint Cloud first time out but doesn't take the step up in grade that one might have imagined. Waggad won narrowly on debut for Andre Fabre at Chantilly and it is perhaps surprising to see the colt at Clairefontaine for his next start.

The second and third in Zelda's race were beaten by a similar margin to the one the Rouget filly had dealt out when they next ran. Waggad has seen his 2nd and 3rd both winning since. A line through Dieppe, who was runner up to the son of Al Wukair suggests that Zelda and Waggad are pretty tight on form thus far.

I feel that Waggad has scope for improvement. He came from off the pace on Heavy ground to reel in Dieppe at Chantilly and it is sometimes difficult to make headway on bad ground. Today's ground is described as good to soft and Zelda won on similar going at Saint Cloud. I felt that Waggad may be slightly more suited by the step up to 7F but it's marginal.

In the end I felt the pair should both have been 7/4 or so today, given the similar form lines and the Racing Post had 80 and 78 for their first efforts, with Zelda getting the higher figure. Zelda is 5/4 today and Waggad 5/2 and I can't see the justification for the Fabre colt being double the odds.


12.50 Clairefontaine Waggad 5/2
 
Sir Barney Chuckles said:
Morning, all. Hope everyone A-OK.

Firstly a bit of housekeeping re Relative who I put up for Monday. Disappointed in only finishing 7th but as the RP reported did appear as green as grass and when asked a serious question appeared totally clueless re what she needed to do. With that experience behind her is I think worth another chance next time. She was also a bit strange in the market. Opened 11/1, drifted to as big as 14's at one point in the morning, before then being gradually backed down to 9/1 when the market opened on-course and then further supported into 11/2 come 'stalls opening'. In conclusion yes disappointing but I think worth another chance next time.

And one other thing. Yesterday one of Mr Charlton's was allocated a Flat mark of 38, yes just 38! Has Beckhampton ever housed one so low?!? Will be so interesting to see how he places this one (Next Second) off this bargain basement mark. Even more so when you consider Next Second's dam is a daughter of Milligram won the Coronation Stakes and the QEII!

Good luck all.
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The Racing Post gave Relative 65 for her run behind Future. I felt the Gosden filly might have won with a sub 80 performance, perhaps 78 or so but the Racing Post assessor raised her and the runner up by 9 lbs in awarding the winner 81. I am not sure I would be rushing to back Future off 81 in a Handicap but time will tell. You would imagine the plan with Relative would be Handicaps in the long term and you wouldn't be wanting to get her too highly rated before entering that sphere. Perhaps a low key win might be the idea and then get a workable mark. Interesting to see where they go next time.
 
It took Zelda time to get on top but she was ultimately well in command.

Waggad never went a yard and looked uncomfortable from the start. Maybe he is a mudlark but this was a hugely disappointing effort and he hasn't matched his first run in my opinion.

Surely up to Listed company at least for Zelda now. That looked like she will have learned plenty from today's run and she looks smart. Evens was skinny enough today but she did it well.
 
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There is an interesting maiden at Yarmouth this evening. The favourite is Princess Shabnam, who was 4th on debut and then runner up to Frankella next time. The third from that second race has won since but that was a penalty kick at 1/5 Fav. Frankella has been beaten twice since and I reckon Princess Shabnam is roughly an 80 performer at the moment. That is not a daunting target for newcomers and I think she is short at 7/4 with newcomers from good stables taking her on.

Aunt Bethany is a Cotai Glory filly who cost £55,000 and Archie Watson is no stranger to first time out 2YO winners. She lies second favourite at 5/2.

Perfect News is by Frankel and she is out of Besharah, who won the Lowther for trainer William Haggas. Perhaps a longer term prospect and she is weak in the betting this afternoon.

Ruggles is an Exceed And Excel filly out of a Motivator mare and while Roger Varian needs to be respected, this might be sharp enough at 6F for this filly. Perhaps reflected in the 9/1 odds.

Brian Meehan's youngsters often come on a lot for their first run but perhaps Basholo may be sharper as a daughter of Caravaggio. She is a big price at 16/1 for a sire whose best progeny this season has been 102 rated Agartha, who landed a Group 3.

Red Joan has had two disappointing efforts for the Gosdens and pulled too hard last time when 8th, so it's hard to fancy her.

I felt the first two in the betting were short enough and so I went with Perfect News. The dam was a filly I followed at 2YO and she did quite well for me. Her first foal was nothing special but it's early days and Frankel celebrated his 800th winner recently, so there is some power in his loins.

Would be nice if support comes for her but at 5/1 I felt she was more appetising than the Watson filly at half the price.

5.45 Yarmouth Perfect News 5/1
 
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18:45 Yarmouth - Flying Standard

(Should surely run a decent race in this very poor Class 6 event? If not, best I take a breather until the weekend! Hopeful it's not "one for the judge!" <laugh>)

Forgot to mention, 3/1 best price at time of writing.
 
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stick said:
stopped it <laugh>
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<laugh> You certainly did, Stick, you must have put a roll of industrial lead on his back; what an abysmal run. I take the 'hint' from my own post and will take a break till I see a good thing in a 30-runner field! :emoticon-0101-sadsm :( :bandit:


Stick; will try to switch some QPR stuff onto the 'Other Sports' thread right now.
 
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Grade One said:
Morning

7.00 Kempton-Reversion

Each Way @ 33-1 [Boylesports]

First race but he looks interesting for top "jumping connections" and is worth a risk at these big odds
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Not a bad first effort looking professional from the off, before getting tired and losing places in the final furlong
 
Not a bad debut from Perfect News but the favourite was away in front and could not be closed down. Perfect News stayed on well to take second place but clearly needs a 7th furlong based on this run. Aunt Bethany looked a bit one paced in third. I was surprised to see Ruggles at 9/2 given her pedigree and she looked very one paced over the 6F. She was beaten nearly seven lengths in 5th place and never looked like rewarding the market support.

Decent effort from Perfect News and I thought she was the one for the future from the race.
 
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