Wednesday 26th September - Daily Thread

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rainbowview

rainbowview

Well-Known Member
Jun 18, 2011
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Hello all


Have looked at the cards for tomorrow already and will be having one bet.


EAGLES PEAK 4.15 Goodwood 6/1 (BET VICTOR)


Impressive winner on his debut in a warm Newmarket maiden last July (beat Thimaar 1 1/4 lengths) that horse is now rated 100 + the 3rd and 5th home that day are both high 80s horses and open to further improvement. Following his debut victory Eagles Peak was sent off the 5/2 fav for a 17 runner handicap at York buy only managed to beat two rivals home.That was a warm handicap and the lowest rated of those that finished in front of Eagles Peak was 89. It is also hard to believe that was his true level of form considering what he achieved first time out. He returns to the track tomorrow after a 406 day lay off and runs off a mark of 95 in what looks a competitive race. However some of the gallop reports on the internet (sky sports, sporting life & the sun) suggest he has been working really well with Sea Moon lately and this is the type of horse that trainer Sir Michael Stoute does really well with. I expect a big run from this completely unexposed 4yo tomorrow and imo 6/1 is a cracking price.
 
WOW.

This horse had been retired according to reports last season. Absolutely stunned he is back! He is potentially a very, very smart animal RV.


Only concern would be needing the run but I had him down as potential group class.
 
Interesting Toppy didn't read that. Was he injured during the York run do you know ?

Could need the run tomorrow but happy enough to take a chance at a decent price.
 
the response from Cats

****ING HELL.. He got v bad injury way back when.. Horse I had for derby years ago before he had even run. OMG thanks 4 this

<laugh> :)
 
You can imagine my surprise too .... What the fudge. Sustained v bad injury but was right up there with the best at Stoute's if fully recovered and tuned up watch out! Must have come out of it well or impressed enough to carry on with him

Such a nice surprise to see him run.

:D
 
<laugh>, absolutely barmy. I had to do a double-take when I read the post from you at the top of the thread RV. I thought you'd mixed some horses up or something.

Really hope the horse has recovered fully and is sound. Beautiful pedigree, I said to you Cats last year that he could make a lovely sire!
 
[video=youtube;fiS5uqRxH_Q]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fiS5uqRxH_Q[/video]

Comically bad commentary from the guy on Equidia.

I don't think he'll ever outdo himself on this one. During and post-race. <laugh>
 
Potential group horse in a handicap, might need the run though coming back from a bad injury? I wouldnt want to second guess Stoute but if he was mine I would be happy with a nice run back tomorrow, he certainly wouldnt be given a hard race. Interesting little race, Big Johnny D could be a well handicapped horse, I think he is coming back from injury as well though, he travelled well in a decent maiden at Newmarket and on paper looks well in off 82, the step up in trip should suit and provided he is reasonably strong in the market, is the one id want to be on. Alkimos looks overpriced at 12/1, he is a decent tool and should run a big race off top weight but he is vulnrebale to something unexposed and well in. I have backed Alkimos at 12/1 as a saver and will see how Big Johnny D is in the market tomorrow.

The horse I am looking forward to seeing tomorrow is Pythagorean, I think this could be a group horse in a maiden!! He has shown abundant promise in two runs so far, doing himself no favours on either occasion but leaving the impression that he harbours a serious engine. He didnt appear to learn an awful lot from his first run last time, being slowly away and pulling hard early again, they didnt go much of a gallop but he still managed to cruise into contention from way off the pace before heading the eventual winner Related and deciding to pull himself up before the line. I think its down to greenness rather than quirkiness, and the application of the hood is not too worrying, I understand he has worked in it and it should be fine. He wont be much of a price, I was hoping to get slight odds against as there are 3 horses in here against him who have shaped well in hot maidens, but it looks as though the only way that will materialize is if there is big improvement expected from either the Noseda or Simcock horses or if the betfair layers just decide to take it on. I will hoping for the latter, I would want at least 4/5 to be getting involved but that is unlikely so just hope to see why he works with Dundonnell ;)
 
I'd agree Pythagorean looks the most likely winner Joe.

Only concern is the track- I think Richard Hughes is a Goodwood expert and I would be prepared to go e/w on Emulating usually. However, I think he will need further (Duke Of Marmalade colts all shaping that way so far this yr) and therefore the principle danger, having raced on a stiff track on debut at Ascot, would be Zamoyski.

It is impossible to measure the form of that race at the moment but William Buick said he was disappointed not to be able to ride 'two nice newcomers' at Ascot on the day he headed up to ride Ortensia (and Nathaniel in Ireland). The first nice newcomer won that maiden and we know ther Stoute horse is well touted for the 2013 Derby, who finished 2nd. So maybe that good late headway in 7th is better form than at first glance. I think you are right in judging it by the price- you need the value to make a decision.
 
I remember Eagles Peak when Cats initially put him up. Very interesting contender tomorrow indeed and will be very interested to see how he runs. I definitely don't think he'll be overly tried tomorrow given that he sustained that injury but one thing stands out glaringly in my eyes: given that he is still a colt and with a pedigree as good as his, they would not risk bringing him back unless they were 100% he had recovered. I'm excited now
 
ROTO said:
I remember Eagles Peak when Cats initially put him up. Very interesting contender tomorrow indeed and will be very interested to see how he runs. I definitely don't think he'll be overly tried tomorrow given that he sustained that injury but one thing stands out glaringly in my eyes: given that he is still a colt and with a pedigree as good as his, they would not risk bringing him back unless they were 100% he had recovered. I'm excited now
Click to expand...

Exactly my thinking ROTO. They wouldn't be bringing him back to make up any numbers and they would not want to be risking him.


He could need the run tomorrow but by all accounts he has been frequenting the gallops throughout September, giving Sea Moon a tough time of things one one occasion and being 4L behind him on another. Can't read too much into that but the key thing is he might be race fit.
 
Yeah Zamoyski would appear to be the main danger, the maidens that both him and Marjus Quest ran in were well above average and Hannons has ran in two decent maidens aswell, thats why I was hoping for a backable price about Pythagorean but at the same time, I didnt think any of them would be seriously fancied to beat him. Stoute's Hillstar and Meehan's Wrecking Ball were two other entries for the race that I was hoping would turn up but when I seen they were out I knew it was going to be short, the 1/2 on betfair is alot shorter than I would be interested in even though I do consider him to be about a 1/2 chance.
 
You just have to look at Sam's reply to my post regarding talking to a bookie. This is a genius at work.
 
have had a little dabble on your 4 Boris, i've had winners from you before and don't want to cause an argument/debate but in my humble opinion you're the best tipster on here
 
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