Daily Racing Thread Wednesday 24th. April 2019

Sign of the times when you see Utd are 11/2 to win at home against City. I'd be shocked if they got anything in this game, City should stroll through this one.

 

Didn’t handle the helter skelter mate

 

southwell,4 45:

MONT ROYALE hasnt been at his best so far this season,but he has dropped 4 lbr below his last winning mark,and this looks a bit easier than some of his last assignments..e w value..

 

perth,5 10:

old TED VEALE is surely not the force of old,but hes keeping his form quite well at present,and theres the old adage"never forget the best form of a horse"so,can go well again today..

 

Two on the trot as Mildenberger also stumbled coming out of the stalls and was way out the back. He never really got involved but made some late headway. He's better than that run and any ease from the handicapper should help him. Cross Baton weakened quite markedly and Gosden is not in tip top form at this time with several performing poorly. Desert Wind never got into it and I noticed in the stats that the trainer has a very poor record in April. Historically it has been their worst month of the season by far. 3 winners from 109 runners in April is the record according to ATR.

 

Thanks for putting me off!

 

That’s why they call me...................

 

What has happened with Greatrex in bumpers? Seems to be well off his previous form

 

I do find it quite amazing. A couple of seasons ago it was Greatrex, Longsdon and Pauling who you could rely on along with the old guard of Henderson, Hobbs and King. These days I would say it’s Murphy, FOB, Skelton and Bailey with honourable mentions for Fry and Lacey.
I think trainers attempt to buy different types as they progress and their stock then has a different profile. Honeyball is another who’s crown has slipped.

 

How dare you challenge the bumper king, shame on you Nass

That bumper strike rate must be around 70% stick?

 

I didn’t have a great day.........but it was better than de Gea’s!

 

Got to keep him on his toes.

 

...not on his wages?

 

I have my doubts about East in the Newmarket Guineas. She would have to go there without a run and Kevin Ryan has made a quiet start to the season. The Racing Post have him on 3/30 for wins the past fortnight and a worrying 33% for Horses Running To Form over the same period.

I can't recall a Classic winner who started their career at Hamilton, although the very decent Happy Power ran behind her there. The bigger concern is that the form of East's Group 3 win in France has worked out terribly since.

The French Guineas is more likely if not simply because the French fillies look a mediocre bunch this season. The one exception is Alain De Royer-Dupre's Sirayafina. Impressive on debut, she followed up in terrific style, coming from the back in a slowly run affair to win easily in what looked like a piece of work on the gallops, rather than a race. It looks a formality that Sirayafina will be supplemented for the French Guineas and I have backed her at 9/4 for that race and at 5/1 for the Prix Diane, where she was entered. I'll be a little surprised if she doesn't land the double because not only do the French Fillies look mediocre but the best of the UK and Ireland also appear to lack a star. The Racing Post rate Sirayafina on 94, whereas they have Prix De La Grotte winner Castle Lady on 110. I will be shocked if that 16 lbs gap does not prove to be a piece of nonsense before too long.

 

I doubt that it matters where a horse starts it's career,be it Hamilton or York - what does matter is that it's introduction to racing is an enjoyable experience. Laurens for example started in a lowly grade 5 at Doncaster and won in a photo. The current favourite for the 1000 guineas won a grade 4 race at Yarmouth - also in a photo. My point is that where a horse starts it career is not an impediment to it's ability to win pattern races.

Your observation that the fillies lack a star is probably right,backed up by the fact that Qabala, having won a race when the field were making their seasonal debuts went from 40/1 to 7/2 favourite for the guineas.This horse is by Scat Daddy,whose progeny have their fair share of temperament, she sweated up in the Nell Gwyn,and how she handles the preliminaries on Sunday week is guesswork.

The Guineas has been won by seasonal debutantes,so I do not see not having a run as a negative- nor to I see trainer Ryan having a 30% strike rate a negative either. Although I expect EAST to run in France She is best priced at 16/1 and as low as 12/1 for our 1000. Is it possible that the Ryan firm are having a change of heart?

One final thought. The most impressive horse that I have seen this season is UAE Jewel, backed as if defeat was out of the question at Newmarket he absolutely bolted up! currently 33/1 for the Derby his next entry is in the Dante. Win that and he will be the Derby favourite, do I back him now at 33's or wait until after the Dante -decisions,decisions!