Looks like BVD v Samcro is on for the fighting fifth. Will get me to Gosforth park if so. 4/5 BVD is longer than i would of thought with Samcro 7/4.
I don't usually pay much attention to the night racing at Dundalk. However it's not escaped my notice that recently when an apprentice jockey by the moniker SM Crosse (not to be confused with NM Crosse) teams up with young JOB magic happens. They team up for just one tonight Proud and Elated @ 11/4, 7.00.
the 6:40 at Kempton looks a decent little race for a Wednesday evening. Plenty of decent animals and a fair few with a good chance of winning it. Given my luckless streak it's probably the type of race I should leave well alone but I've had a go on Via Via 9/1. Wouldn't normally play something so short ew but in my opinion with it being quite a hot contest, on this occasion I've gone ew
I cant quite believe someone tipped Le Reve after nearly two years off! Were you at Cheltenham when he had his lunatic ten minutes?
As a few are expressing opinions on the 6:40. My only bet of the day today is HATHAL. Would have preferred to see some money for it but I think its a real value price tonight.
Indeed I was, that was horrific and so surprised that he made it through that traumatic event. He ran well today really, but they must be trying to get him to compete in the Sandown race in the spring?
Not sure what the plan is, I shall ask. Lovely horse and in his pomp was a real class act. He was never going to be fully wound up today but if you can be last of three and show a bit of promise then I guess he did. Has never won left handed. Watched that race of Barneys again and I reckon his cocked his jaw when the scrap began! I am sure he will tell us that it ran into the next incarnation of Pegasus tomorrow. Hope to see you at HQ on the Saturday just before Christmas!
All things being equal then yes, I will be at Cheltenham that weekend. I believe I’ve got the boy with me on Saturday too. He’s already been to more racetracks than most forumites!!
You'll never get good odds on Charlton winners second time up. I don't follow the man myself because I feel it's inherent bad value for a trainer who never seems to pull it off, in the big races especially. I did see Headman as low as 20/1 for the 2000 Guineas and was shaking my head at those odds. The very fact that he was out today was a big negative for the 2000 Guineas because I did some stats for the Classic and the winner has usually run well before November and going back a generation none had run as late into the season as 21st November. I am surprised Charlton ran him today. Why not put him away for the Winter after the one start and prepare him for one of the trials in the Spring? Is he starting to wonder if he can get a horse ready for the Guineas? Paddypower pushed Headman out to 66/1 for the Guineas if anyone wants to keep faith. Winner Zakouski is as low as 25/1 for Newmarket in May but that seems short enough. He's inexperienced and it's highly likely that Quorto will be their main Guineas contender unless something goes amiss with him. The same negative trends about debuting/running this late in the year also apply to Zakouski and bookies are being a bit tight concerning a winner who has appeared after the Flat season is actually over. Both horses in today's race did meet the month of foaling stats for the 2000 Guineas. Looking back I found that colts foaled in February and March did best and ones born in May had a poor record.
Two Guineas horses that ran late in their 2yo seasons were Ghanati and Makfi. The latter famously after being sold as an unraced 2yo at that year’s Horses in Training sale. But you are right most Guineas winners are tucked up in bed by early November.
I should have elaborated better in my original post. As well as not running late in the season, the more telling stat is when the horse actually makes its debut. I went back 25 years and found that there were few who kicked off their careers in October and November that went on to win a Guineas. September was generally as late as you would like to see them appear. Ghanaati made her debut in September, finishing 3rd and then got off the mark in a late October race. She went on to win a Guineas where the odds-on Gosden filly Rainbow View was a flop. Makfi was an exception, making his debut on 27th November before winning a trial in the following Spring. He was a shock winner at Newmarket, 33/1, from Dick Turpin. I was on Canford Cliffs ante-post at 25/1 for that race but had then watched him get beaten in France and then again by the highwayman in the trial. Of course Canford Cliffs then found his form big style but too late for my fiver at 25's. Debuting very early in the season is also a general negative for 2YO's with Classic aspirations. Dawn Approach is one of the few to start at 2YO in March and then win the 2000 Guineas. His Derby debacle followed that race and perhaps he would have been best kept at a mile. I am actually hoping lightning can strike again with the early birds and that Skitter Scatter can buck the stats and defy a career start in March at Dundalk. She beat Sergei Prokofiev in a race where I thought the latter could have perhaps won with a stronger ride, but she was a shade disappointing after, maybe looking like one who would not go on, but her form picked up in winning her next three starts, finishing off by landing the Moyglare, and I feel in a very weak looking season for 2YO fillies, she can get a mile and maybe end up as the winner at Newmarket in May. There seems worse value than her at 16/1 so I am sticking the odd fiver on here and there to have an interest in the Spring.
