3.20 Cheltenham
Trop Fort 20/1
I really liked the way Trop Fort travelled on his seasonal reappearance for the Welsh Champion Hurdle before fading very badly and if improving for the run, return to a sound surface and the application of a tongue tie help him out then I think he could play a really big role in this. Formerly with David Pipe where he looked out completely out of sorts, the change of scenery completely revitalised this 6 year old as he was an impressive winner on both his starts for Tim Vaughan last summer in Novice Hurdles. The first he won by 6L when driven to score decisively last July on stable debut at Market Rasen (average form) but he undoubtedly improved again to win a much better race back in August. Having made virtually all, Trop Fort's task was made a lot easier when his nearest pursuer Ahyaknowyourself fell at 2 out (Trop Fort looked to have mastered him) and from then on he always had the race won as he went on to score comfortably by 4L. Ahyaknowyourself has gone on to win a handicap off a mark of 124 subsequently and adds substance to the form of Trop Fort. That was Trop Fort's last outing last summer and despite being beaten 43L on his last start in the Welsh Champion Hurdle he ran a much, much better race than that. On his first start for 182 days in atrocious conditions when extremely weak in the market (66/1 shot), Trop Fort made his first start in a handicap for Tim Vaughan off a mark of 134 back in February where he travelled extremely well for an awful long way. Sitting prominent throughout, Trop Fort came into the home straight in the leading line and looked as if he was going to play a massive role in the finish before he looked to get very tired as he finished a well beaten 9th. If attributing him falling away like a stone to either needing his seasonal reappearance, getting tired in the very heavy going or perhaps a breathing problem (or even a combination of all 3) then the result looks so much better than the bare form suggests and I'm certainly willing to give him another chance now dropped 2lb to a mark of 132. Sure to come on an awful lot for run and appreciate the better conditions, I think its very interesting to see a first time tongue tie applied as a breathing issue could easily be prevalent given how he went from travelling extremely well to out on his feet very quickly at Ffos Las a couple of months ago. If he does indeed have a breathing issue which the tongue tie alleviates, I think he could surprise quite a few people and finish off his race much better as the excellent Richard Johnson takes the ride. Although risks clearly come attached, if he's able to finish off his race today I think he's feasibly handicapped to win this and although he could easily finish well beaten I won't be at all surprised if he wins this pretty well.
4.05 Newmarket
Sound Of Guns 14/1 (saver on Hot Snap 12/1)
I'm a big fan of Ed Walker's 3 year old filly Sound Of Guns who I have followed since her debut and if staying her first try at 7f I think she is going to be bang there at the finish. After making an eye catching debut, Sound Of Guns won her Maiden at the 2nd time of asking over 6f at Yarmouth in the style of a very good horse as everything that could have went against her did but her class saw her through to score in really impressive fashion. Despite being given a very lenient opening handicap mark of 82, connections didn't hesitate to step her up into Listed Company where she ran a blinder dropped back to 5f at Newbury last August when finding only the excellent Rosdhu Queen to good as she went down battling by 3/4L. Despite looking to have every chance at the furlong pole, Sound Of Guns couldn't get by Willie Haggas's extremely game front running filly but she lost absolutely nothing in defeat that day. Rosdhu Queen, who is now unbeaten in 4, has subsequently gone on to win both her subsequent starts including the Group 1 Cheveley stakes and if she stays 1m she is definitely my idea of the 1,000 Guineas winner at the moment. Sound Of Guns proved that effort was no fluke when running another superb race in defeat when finishing a 1.5L beaten 3rd in the Group 2 Flying Childers at Doncaster last September on what was her final start. Again over 5f, Sound Of Guns this time took on the boys and I think she was short of room at a crucial stage before running on strongly late on grab 3rd behind a couple of male counterparts. Again, that is really strong form with the winner Sir Prancealot showing really good form in France when getting beaten less than 2L on two occasions behind Clive Cox's unbeaten Reckless Abandon (including at Group 1 level) whilst the runner up Bungle Inthejungle won a Group 3 on his only subsequent start. The excellent Ed Walker has reported that she is in great form at home and has grown very well physically over the winter and if she stays 7f then I think she has a much better chance than her price suggests. In what isn't an overly strong looking Nell Gwyn, Sound Of Guns should find it easier back against her own sex today and I'm very confident of a really big run representing her in form yard. Luke Morris, who was on board when runner up to Rosdhu Queen, takes the ride again and I think Sound Of Guns brings some really strong form to this race and I'm confident she's going to run a massive, massive race.
I will have a saver on Sir Henry Cecil's Hot Snap who could be absolutely anything having won on her debut at Kempton over 1m last September. A rare debutant juvenile winner for Sir Henry Cecil nowadays, Hot Snap is a well bred half sister to the yards excellent Midday and she knuckled down really well to score by 0.5L despite being restless prior to the race. Although that bare form wouldn't be anywhere near enough to win this, anything that wins on debut as a 2 year old is always well above average and Hot Snaps breeding and entries (Guineas and Oaks) suggest she is well thought of at home and she isn't being pitched in at this level on just her 2nd start for no reason. The complete unknown in the field, Hot Snap could be just about anything and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if she turned out to be very smart and won this.
