Wednesday 17 April Daily Thread

Newmarket:
3.30 Garswood
4.05 Nargys
4.40 Intello

Cheltenham
2.10 Puffin Billy

 

Newmarket
Hot Snap e/w

Cheltenham
Whisper
Carrickboy

 

Good day in store. Best of luck everyone.

 

1.45 Newmarket: Red Rocker 14/1 e.w (tissue)

This looks a tough maiden with a mix of nice unraced pedigrees against one or two with solid experience.

Brian Meehan turns immediately to Kieron Fallon to kick off the meeting and I am of the opinion that this points to a forward juvenile, as would the fact Meehan has put this out so early in the season in a tough race. The yard won this last year with Cogito and I just think in a trappy race, this is worth an e/w tickle for small stakes.

The dam- Feet Of Flame- has produced the 98 rated Kinky Afro but notably this is by far the most expensive she has produced, fetching 30,000 gns at the sales and I expect this to be a forward one with the distance set to suit.

2.55 Amberley Heights 14/1

If you get chance to watch this debut then please do. Slowly away and a bit green, Amberley Heights begins to travel with more fluency at the back of the main group by half way, begins to make headway 2f out and is then struck firmly in the face with a whip, hampering her. She still glides through a gap and ends up winning a bit cosily against a better than bare glance field- Sorella Bella was much better than her 2Y0 figures suggest and I think Amberley Heights might be on of those interesting Hannon 2nd strings tomorrow.

5:15: Batallion 7/1- This is a horse supplemented for The Derby this week and Haggas says he is working well. Ryan Moore is booked and he teams up well with this yard. The other real interesting newcomer for me is Samawi, by one of my favourite sires to follow in Maidens (Street Cry) and out of a full sister to Fantastic Light. A fascinating contender over 10f.

 

Canadian:

Sky Lantern 11/4
Intello 13/8
Dusky Bob 7/1
Hunt Ball 7/2
Mr Mole 2/1

 

I'll be putting up a lot later on tonight. If none come in then I'll be saving my powder until Educate runs at the weekend where I am having a very, very large bet.

 

OOOOOHHHHHHHHH

Looks like we will all be having a very very large bet as well!

Good luck ROTO

 

For sentimental reasons also. By the late Echo of Light (the Sheik's favourite son of the great Dubai Millennium) out of a mare by another of my favourites, Celtic Swing. We named one of our afghan hound puppies (pet name Rupert) after him and he went unbeaten at all Champion and Open shows). That's good enough for me.

 

Nice Accum at Cheltenham

Puffin Billy, Hunters Lodge, Champion Court and Mr Mole

For a 5 timer throw in Intello at Newmarket

FFS and I've only had some apple juice.

 

I agree with you on this one Top Class and Fallon is a significant booking whenever riding for Brian Meehan. I have also been told by a friend that the William Hagges horse Assembley is quite well thought of but will be better for the run. When I asked if it was worth a bet tomorrow he said he would not put anyone off backing it each way. It's a bit of a minefield of a race but if those two are around the 14-1 chance I think both could be worth a speculative punt.

 

One of my cats is called Rupert. May I commend you on your choice of names.

 

2.35 Beverley

Wyldfire 9/2

I was was very impressed with the way this 3 year old got going in the final stages to win his Maiden earlier this month despite being green and I definitely think he can make a successful handicap debut off a mark of 71. After showing quite a bit of abilty on his first two starts as a 2 year old (bombed out on his final start at this course which is a slight worry) he was gelded prior to making a winning debut as a 3 year old where the application of a hood seemed to help him settle as he got off the mark at the 4th attempt. Upped to 9f at Redcar at the start of the month, Wyldfire took on a field that consisted predominantly of elders where he sat in about 5th or 6th for most of the journey. After being scrubbed along at the 3f pole, he actually looked as if he was going to be comprehensively beaten 2.5f out as he dropped back to 8th but the penny seemed to drop very late and he really got going in the final furlong to score by a comfortable neck under today's jockey Lee Topliss in a race that has worked out well. The 2nd and 4th have put in solid efforts in handicaps off marks of 69 and 65 respectively whilst the 3rd Big Johnny D ran out a comfortable scorer of a Maiden at Newcastle on Sunday. It was very encouraging to see him make up a fair bit of ground in the final furlong and he is very much a horse who is still learning his craft. He makes his handicap debut off a mark of 71 against fellow 3 year olds today and based on the form shown in 3 of his Maidens he looks on a more than fair mark. Moreover, he very much looks like the sort of horse who will improve significantly with racing and I have no doubt that there is quite a bit more to come. Lee Topliss again takes the ride having given him a great ride to score earlier this month and he is full value for his 3lb claim. With the hood retained and sure to appreciate the better going and extra furlong, I think Wyldfire has an excellent chance of winning this contest for the bang in form Richard Fahey who took this contest last year with Sparkling Portrait who has since gone on to improve 24lb and land a Listed contest.



2.45 Cheltenham

Hunters Lodge 7/1

Nigel Twiston-Davies's first season chaser looks a thorough out and out stayer to me and I think this nicely progressing and very consistent 7 year old looks set to run a very big race off a mark of 127. An average hurdler at best, the switch to fences has been the making of Hunters Lodge who has won 3 of his 6 starts over the larger obstacles since making his debut in this sphere last September. After making a successful chasing debut in a handicap off a mark of 107 at Market Rasen, Hunters Lodge was rather fortuitous to make it 2-2 over fences when landing a competitive Amateur Riders Handicap at Cheltenham over an extended 3m in October off a mark of 115. Having been outpaced coming to 3 out, he was given a very enterprising ride by Ryan Hatch to take the lead 2 out and was probably just headed by Romanesco who looked sure to win but he fell at the last which allowed Hunters Lodge to take full advantage. Romanseco was clearly a well handicapped horse who has gone on to finish 3rd at the Cheltenham Festival off a 12lb higher mark so a defeat wouldn't blotted his copybook much. Hunters Lodge returned to Cheltenham over that same C+D for another large field Amateur Riders Handicap off a mark of 122 where he ran another blinder to beaten a little over 4L in 3rd. As has become a characteristic of his performances, Hunters Lodge was badly outpaced at 3 out and dropped back in the field to be out 15L off the pace before staying on powerfully late on and he grabbed 3rd as he finished like a train. Again, that race is very strong form with the winner Swing Bill (who won the same race the year before) running a blinder in the Topham off an 8lb higher mark on his next outing whilst the runner up Sizing Santiago was successful next time out off a 3lb higher mark. Hunters Lodge's next two starts came off marks off 123 at Newbury over 27f and Doncaster over 3 miles where he again looked to be struggling badly before staying on strongly late on but he ran out a comfortable winner off a mark of 121 in first time blinkers LTO in what was probably a bit of a Mickey Mouse contest last month at Uttoxeter over 3m on heavy going.

In a 4 runner field, Hunters Lodge was prominent throughout and after hitting his traditional flat spot approaching 4 out and looking held he was fully in command jumping 3 out and went on to score by 19L from 3 very tired rivals. Although the runner up was successful on his only subsequent start, I don't think you can read too much into the form and luckily the handicapper hasn't overreacted by only upping him 6lb to a mark of 127. Tomorrow a first time visor replaces the blinkers and I'm hoping the new headgear has the same effect as he definitely seemed to appreciate the blinkers. He should absolutely love the step up to an extended 3m4f as he looks as if he'll stay all day and he seems to be fine on any going. Despite having to shoulder top weight, it signifies he's the best horse in the race on official ratings and the last 4 runnings of this have gone to horses carrying 11-7 or more so it clearly seems that the better horses will come to the fore. In addition to the step up in trip, he should definitely appreciate the return to Cheltenham as he has gone very well on both starts at the track and course form is a massive positive in a race like this. Moreover, he's proven himself in large field like this before and seems to enjoy the challenges of a big handicap like this. Sam Twiston-Davies again takes the ride and he seems to get on with the horse well which is very important given he isn't a straightforward ride and he'll definitely get a good tune out of him. Trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies has his horses in decent enough nick at present and despite having to defy a career high mark and top weight I'm sure Hunters Lodge will run his usual game race. You'd probably be better off going each way in a race of this nature to be sure and I'd be very surprised if he was out of the frame. However, I do feel he has a great chance of landing this contest and I'm hoping he can do just that at what I feel is a more than fair price.

 

3.20 Cheltenham

Trop Fort 20/1

I really liked the way Trop Fort travelled on his seasonal reappearance for the Welsh Champion Hurdle before fading very badly and if improving for the run, return to a sound surface and the application of a tongue tie help him out then I think he could play a really big role in this. Formerly with David Pipe where he looked out completely out of sorts, the change of scenery completely revitalised this 6 year old as he was an impressive winner on both his starts for Tim Vaughan last summer in Novice Hurdles. The first he won by 6L when driven to score decisively last July on stable debut at Market Rasen (average form) but he undoubtedly improved again to win a much better race back in August. Having made virtually all, Trop Fort's task was made a lot easier when his nearest pursuer Ahyaknowyourself fell at 2 out (Trop Fort looked to have mastered him) and from then on he always had the race won as he went on to score comfortably by 4L. Ahyaknowyourself has gone on to win a handicap off a mark of 124 subsequently and adds substance to the form of Trop Fort. That was Trop Fort's last outing last summer and despite being beaten 43L on his last start in the Welsh Champion Hurdle he ran a much, much better race than that. On his first start for 182 days in atrocious conditions when extremely weak in the market (66/1 shot), Trop Fort made his first start in a handicap for Tim Vaughan off a mark of 134 back in February where he travelled extremely well for an awful long way. Sitting prominent throughout, Trop Fort came into the home straight in the leading line and looked as if he was going to play a massive role in the finish before he looked to get very tired as he finished a well beaten 9th. If attributing him falling away like a stone to either needing his seasonal reappearance, getting tired in the very heavy going or perhaps a breathing problem (or even a combination of all 3) then the result looks so much better than the bare form suggests and I'm certainly willing to give him another chance now dropped 2lb to a mark of 132. Sure to come on an awful lot for run and appreciate the better conditions, I think its very interesting to see a first time tongue tie applied as a breathing issue could easily be prevalent given how he went from travelling extremely well to out on his feet very quickly at Ffos Las a couple of months ago. If he does indeed have a breathing issue which the tongue tie alleviates, I think he could surprise quite a few people and finish off his race much better as the excellent Richard Johnson takes the ride. Although risks clearly come attached, if he's able to finish off his race today I think he's feasibly handicapped to win this and although he could easily finish well beaten I won't be at all surprised if he wins this pretty well.

4.05 Newmarket

Sound Of Guns 14/1 (saver on Hot Snap 12/1)

I'm a big fan of Ed Walker's 3 year old filly Sound Of Guns who I have followed since her debut and if staying her first try at 7f I think she is going to be bang there at the finish. After making an eye catching debut, Sound Of Guns won her Maiden at the 2nd time of asking over 6f at Yarmouth in the style of a very good horse as everything that could have went against her did but her class saw her through to score in really impressive fashion. Despite being given a very lenient opening handicap mark of 82, connections didn't hesitate to step her up into Listed Company where she ran a blinder dropped back to 5f at Newbury last August when finding only the excellent Rosdhu Queen to good as she went down battling by 3/4L. Despite looking to have every chance at the furlong pole, Sound Of Guns couldn't get by Willie Haggas's extremely game front running filly but she lost absolutely nothing in defeat that day. Rosdhu Queen, who is now unbeaten in 4, has subsequently gone on to win both her subsequent starts including the Group 1 Cheveley stakes and if she stays 1m she is definitely my idea of the 1,000 Guineas winner at the moment. Sound Of Guns proved that effort was no fluke when running another superb race in defeat when finishing a 1.5L beaten 3rd in the Group 2 Flying Childers at Doncaster last September on what was her final start. Again over 5f, Sound Of Guns this time took on the boys and I think she was short of room at a crucial stage before running on strongly late on grab 3rd behind a couple of male counterparts. Again, that is really strong form with the winner Sir Prancealot showing really good form in France when getting beaten less than 2L on two occasions behind Clive Cox's unbeaten Reckless Abandon (including at Group 1 level) whilst the runner up Bungle Inthejungle won a Group 3 on his only subsequent start. The excellent Ed Walker has reported that she is in great form at home and has grown very well physically over the winter and if she stays 7f then I think she has a much better chance than her price suggests. In what isn't an overly strong looking Nell Gwyn, Sound Of Guns should find it easier back against her own sex today and I'm very confident of a really big run representing her in form yard. Luke Morris, who was on board when runner up to Rosdhu Queen, takes the ride again and I think Sound Of Guns brings some really strong form to this race and I'm confident she's going to run a massive, massive race.

I will have a saver on Sir Henry Cecil's Hot Snap who could be absolutely anything having won on her debut at Kempton over 1m last September. A rare debutant juvenile winner for Sir Henry Cecil nowadays, Hot Snap is a well bred half sister to the yards excellent Midday and she knuckled down really well to score by 0.5L despite being restless prior to the race. Although that bare form wouldn't be anywhere near enough to win this, anything that wins on debut as a 2 year old is always well above average and Hot Snaps breeding and entries (Guineas and Oaks) suggest she is well thought of at home and she isn't being pitched in at this level on just her 2nd start for no reason. The complete unknown in the field, Hot Snap could be just about anything and it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if she turned out to be very smart and won this.

 

Newmarket
1.45 Jammy Guest 5/1 (Margarson thinks the world of him, strong looking colt)
3.30 Emell 4/1 NAP
4.05 Lady Nouf 8/1 NB
4.40 Kerbaaj 8/1
5.15 Demonic 5/1 (Cecils Derby horse - Take the 50/1!)

 

Morning guys is it me or have several people left the boards?? Or maybe they are all on holiday, I hope so!
Anyway a little double to kick off the first day at Newmarket RACE AND STATUS 4.40 5/2 (danger is intello, out of gallieo but may want it softer IMO) next IMPROVISATION 5.15 2/1 looked good on Newmarket debut disappointed NTO but hopefully clicks today to give ma a lovely double and 2 singles GL if you play

 

Afternoon, crew. Nothing for me today but oh to be one of those bookie chappies at either Newmarket or Chelteham this afternoon. At the former you’ve got 63% of the runners not fit and out for a mere ‘pipe opener’ and at the latter you’ve got 57% of the beasts engaged ‘over the top’ after a busy term. And the great thing for those bookie chappies is that 99% of punters won’t know which horses fall into these categories until after the heat has been run! Expect some megamungous priced winners today at these venues, troops.

Meanwhile, Mr Henderson’s Lieutenant Miller has been declared across the county line at Newbury on Friday (4.15) then, people. He has 13 opponents. As they say round my way, ‘When Mr Henderson is on the level, bet like the devil’ and the old boy looks a Bet with a capital ‘B’ on the Flat in just over 48 hours time.

Good luck all.

 

You're not alone in losing money reebok lol