Wednesday's Meetings Beverley Flat 8 Races 1:00-4:45p.m. Yarmouth Flat 7 Races 1:10-4:20p.m. Sligo N/H 7 Races 1:35-4:50p.m. Sandown Flat 7 Races 1:50-5:10p.m. Kelso(E) N/H 8 Races 3:25-7:00p.m. Racecards At The Races Sporting Life Racing Post Good Luck
At Sandown some promising looking sorts line up for the Novice Stakes over a mile. The ground is soft, so it could be a test for the newcomers in particular. The favourite in the early betting is Goldspur from the Charlie Appleby yard and unsurprisingly he is yet another Dubawi, this time out of Pomology, who was very decent for John Gosden and she did me a few good turns in her short career. Her progeny so far have not been much cop though. Army General made a disappointing start when 5th of 6 on debut. He could improve on that but needs to after being beaten more than eight lengths. He doesn't scream value at 5/1. Wolsey is a Kitten's Joy colt who cost $275,000 and he is with Andrew Balding. Likely to come on from what he does today. Luis Fernando is by Australia and comes from the Haggas stable. The yard haven't made much impact with their 2YOs this season and I would look elsewhere for a debut selection here. Cabrakan has run twice and improved with a 3rd last time. That just about represents the leading form here but it would be disappointing if one of the newcomers could not surpass that moderate level. I had a speculative bet on Kaatibb, from the Crisfords stable. A son of Siyouni who cost 200,000 Euros, the stable can get them ready and they are firing at 26% this past two weeks. If he drifts tomorrow it could be ominous but he appealed to me and I was a bit surprised he is not tipped anywhere that I looked. At 8/1 he looked a possible in a race where nothing stood out to me and the soft ground was such an unknown for most of the field. 2.25 Sandown Kaatibb 8/1
3.50 Hong Kong-Loving A Boom @ 4-1 (William Hill) Very consistent horse who looks sure to run his race again
Looking to the weekend I felt Dhabab looked the bet in the Mill Reef at Newbury. Gubbass is top rated and ran in the Prix Morny last time but Armor let that race down a bit in the Flying Childers. Gis A Sub is also rated higher than Dhabab but Lusail didn't do a lot for his form at the weekend. I think Dhabab my be underrated on 103. He made a taking debut and was then a shade unlucky in the Coventry when 6th. His net run is the key, given that he was only a length and a half in arrears of Native Trail in the Superlative. That colt now has a Timeform Rating of 122p and the runner up from that race Masekela won next time from Bayside Boy, who went on to shunt Reach For The Moon off the tracks at the weekend. Dhabab drops from 7F to 6F and he faded late on in the Superlative. Off for 10 weeks, he may have been freshened up for this and I felt he was the one to be with on Saturday. I would think that the form with Native Trail will see support, so decided to play today. 4.00 Newbury Saturday Dhabab 2/1 Native Trail is a best price of 4/1 for the 2000 Guineas now and a win in the Dewhurst will surely see him a skinny winter favourite for the Classic.
Before the tide of history washes him away, and the race which commemorates him (2.15 Yarmouth) is renamed for some commercial sponsor, can I briefly leave an elegy for Sir John Musker ? Met him once, when my firm was peripherally involved with the winding-up of his private bank (Cater-something). When I say 'met', I only mean that we were in the same room: I was just a bag-carrier and note-taker, and no dialogue took place, but he seemed pleasant enough. What he deserves to be remembered for is the original creation of the Shadwell Stud operation, long before it was sold to Sheikh Hamdan in the 1980s. I suppose his claim to fame today is that he was the fourth husband of Audrey Paget (half-sister to the legendary Dorothy, owner of Golden Miller and arguably pound for pound the most prodigious punter of the 20th century). Audrey was - putting it delicately - a bit of a goer: when she was a WAAF in the early 1940s, she reputedly told an admirer (Jock Colville, then Churchill's personal secretary) that she spent all day saying yes, sir and all night saying no ,sir. I hope it's true. So, I always look for the Shadwell colours in this race. Owen Burrows's horse Talbeyah doesn't exactly leap off the page at you, but I'll have a bit on out of sentiment. Talking of sentiment, I understand that the main house, Shadwell Court, has been allowed to deteriorate to the extent that the Victorian Society has listed it as 'endangered'. I hope that's not true, but the Shadwell Estate does have something of a reputation for concentrating on land and letting buildings fall into decay. Princess Newmarket may be better informed about this than I am, though.
Whats the chances of Gordon Elliott striking back with a few winners today at Sligo, with the whole racing community standing up to applaud him for such a successful come back ...?? He will win again, and he will be successful again, but to what reception... ?? Time will tell...
Ziggy is pretty skinny in the 4.40 at Sandown. He had an impressive win from a mark of 69 and was raised 11 lbs for it. 4th next time he is up another pound today, so his task is a good bit tougher than his last win. He's too short for me on soft ground. Beautiful Crown is on a hat-trick and will have no issue on the going today, having won on heavy. He has made all in the past and has a high draw here. Unwanted in the betting, could outrun the 12/1 odds with the mud flying. Crema Inglesa is improving and could have a shout for the Osborne father and daughter team. Dickens' last race hasn't worked out well while Dual Identity may be suited by dropping back in trip. County Wicklow was with Aidan O'Brien but has moved to Marco Botti and makes his handicap debut today. I kept coming back to Wallem as the one with potential. Plenty winners have come from the races he has been in and he had an impossible task when facing Mohaafeth in a handicap when the Haggas Derby prospect was running from a mark of just 85. Gelded since then, Wallem has had a break since then and I just have a feeling he could turn out to be better than the 79 rating he runs from today. 4.40 Sandown Wallem 4/1 was my pick at 4am this morning.
Looking at the Middle Park betting Perfect Power is the 3/1 Fav and having won the Prix Morny he was always likely to be at the head of affairs. Armor ran in the Morny but was beaten as a warm favourite in the Flying Childers and it is hard to know how strong the Morny will turn out to be. I have my doubts with French horse Trident the runner up and a fairly bunched finish in behind. Anyhow, I am siding with a horse at three times the price of Perfect Power. Ebro River has had a busy season and a couple of frustrating runs. He seemed to benefit from a change to positive tactics when landing the Futurity and on his latest start was third behind Native Trail and Point Lonsdale in the Group 1 National Stakes. He didn't seem to get the new 7F trip and a drop back to 6F looks logical. Trainer Hugo Palmer has said that the Middle Park is his next target and that a run in the Breeders Cup over a quick mile could be next. Already ruled out of being a Guineas horse it is nice to see a trainer accepting that their horse is a sprinter at heart and the colt's program for next year will be a patch to the Commonwealth Cup. Hugo Palmer felt that Point Lonsdale was ridden to keep tabs on Ebro River in the National Stakes and that it backfired, with both horses softening one another up for Native Trail to swoop and claim them with relative ease. Ebro River has had a busy season but he seems pretty hardy and I prefer his form profile to that of Perfect Power, being slightly dubious about his OR of 115. I may be wrong but at the odds and with only 2 lbs between them on ratings anyway, I went with Ebro River at 9/1, as a horse who has never seemed to catch the imagination of the betting community, Middle Park Stakes Ebro River 9/1
That was seriously impressive from Goldspur there. My pick Kaatibb went OK before weakening but he was outclassed by the favourite in the paddock. Just when you think Godolphin can't possibly have another good one up pops a classy looking individual to destroy his field by more than six lengths. Already comfortably his dam's best after that showing, he looks one who should be coming under consideration for better races soon.
Wallem was travelling well in behind the leaders. I thought he was coming to win the race but the jockey made no effort to get a gap. He repeatedly kept Wallem behind runners and then when it was too late to win he made a half hearted attempt and came through for third. I am not sure exactly what it takes to stop a horse in a race but I imagine it looks pretty much like the ride Wallem got today. Murphy should have handed his fee back for that feeble effort.
