Fully agree with that. He's young, and should still be improving at a rate of knots. IF you put a line through his RSA, (he bled) and, now I am being slightly more remote in my thinking here, but please bear with me, his Betfair race, when he tried to raced upsides the great horse for too long and simply underperformed, his record is pretty impressive. Faultless almost in fact. There's something about this horse that suggests to me he will definitely outrun his GC odds. The same comment also applies to Quito de la Roque, probably last years best two staying novices in my opinion. Much better Gold Cup winners than Long Run have failed to double up the following year...It's a hugely difficult thing to do and I think the view is, quite rightly, starting to emerge that Long Run is a tad overrated in certain quarters. Nothing short of a comprehensive victory for him on Boxing Day will do anything to change that.
TFR didn't realy tell us alot today, he won well enough, in a race he was more than entitled to win. Id agree he could run well in the Gold Cup. When you look through the antepost market for the Gold Cup, the only solid horse I see is Long Run. The rest all have massive question marks. I'd be amazed if TFR won the Gold Cup, but I wouldn't be suprised to see him snatch 3rd
The problem is that I think all off last season's staying novices were pretty poor (in terms of winning a Gold Cup). I doubt Long Run, or Kauto Star for that matter, are losing too much sleep about the up and coming generation because for me they aren't 'up' and they aren't 'coming' either. I might be wrong but the weakness of the RSA form is there for all to see.
I love it, I can see KS and LR sat in their stables watching reruns of last seasons big races on ATR and RUK. Shaking their heads and neighing in dispair.
Wouldn't disagree with that. It's a huge shame but I have grave doubts that we will see him on a racecourse again, and even if we do he is unlikely to be the force of old. His RSA was very impressive.
I think the other thing to consider with TFR is that he got nothing like ideal conditions in his opening two starts. (If you remember, in the article for this thread I pointed out the strong evidence of him being better on soft ground), and if it came up soft at Cheltenham he'd be a good e/w shout. It is fair to say at the minute he does not look like threatening the Grade 1 elite, but I would not write him off as I think he'll keep improving and would expect him to be a better horse in his second season at open level. Looks a little one-paced though for me at this level, hence the soft ground requirement. Excellent jumper though, and that always keeps you interested. Not sure which race would be ideal for him really.
Big loss to the chasing division this season. I do think Gigginstown have an outstanding novice candidate coming through though in the shape of Sir Des Champs, I am very keen on keeping tabs on his career.
Which is why I nominated QDLR and TFR as my pick of the staying novices. The first named wasn't in that race, and the second may as well not have been (he bled during the race). The RSA form is dodgy, I've said that in the past. But that doesn't mean ALL last years novices are poor
