Archers.....I don't think Best Mate ran in the Arkle, wasn't it called off because of foot and mouth that year
I see where you're coming from Archers but i still think the stiff 2m of the Arkle will be far more to his liking at this stage in his career than the 3m1f of the RSA. I see your argument but i think it's difficult to suggest with any confidence that the longer trip will suit him better when he is totally unproven at anything further than 2m5f. The Festival was cancelled in 2001 because of Foot and Mouth so Best Mate never had a chance to run in one of the novice championships. I am sure it would have been the Arkle though.
We are both correct Tam (re Flyingbolt). Flyingbolt was in deed 3rd in the Ch Hurdle but my stat was "Placed in a Ch Hurdle and went on to win the Arkle". However there was one other that was placed in the Ch Hurdle and went on to in the Arkle: 1985 Boreen Prince was 2nd in the 1983 Champion Hurdle and went on to win the 1985 Arkle. Missed that one.
I just wanted to say a quick thank you to everyone involved in the "Under The Spotlight" series discussion so far. This is the first episode to reach over 100 posts, and your keen interest in it has been fantastic. Hope to have some more really interesting debating in the next few!
Peddlers Cross was very good once again yesterday afternoon. His jumping was quick and accurate, with the only slight blemish when he was asked up very long at the 4th last. To his credit he came up, had to reach for it, but the reports saying it was a 'mistake' are a little wide of the mark in my opinion. He quickened up smartly and made a decent horse look pedestrian. We know he has the speed, the stamina and the ability and he seems to be a brilliant jumper too. He seems equally happy going close or standing off so at this stage I am struggling to find any cracks in his armour. The 2nd, Minella Class, jumped well and was rated 148 over hurdles. Peddlers simply destroyed him (though Minella Class wasn't given a hard time) and giving him 10lbs as well. If you say Minella Class ran to 138, then Peddlers must have been worth at least 158. He is virtually at the required level to win an average Arkle and he's not even been off the bridle yet. More will be required to win what looks a vintage renewal but there appears more than enough left in the tank. Whilst times may not mean a lot it is worth commenting that his time was 13 seconds faster than the Handicap Chase on the same card. He won easily but the handicap chase was won by a neck in a hard fought finish. The other races were slower than standard by 25.10, 26.20, 22.10, 21.16, 23.70 and 32.70 seconds. Peddlers Cross was slow by 12 seconds. I think it is dangerous to read too much into times but he was significantly faster than anything else on the card, admittedly as you might have hoped, and expected. I think he is really exciting and can't wait to see him in March. The 5/1 with Ladbrokes is still a huge price. Surely his percentage chance is greater than 16.67%? I struggle to see anything bar Al Ferof, Sprinter Sacre and Menorah getting involved and rate him the clear best of the 4 at this stage.
Al Ferof was far more impressive on his chasing debut, that Peddlers Cross has been in either of his 2 chase starts. His time in the Supreme, was faster than Hurricane Fly, who beat Peddlers Cross in the Champion Hurdle. Ruby Walsh is a better jockey than Jason Maguire Paul Nicholls is a better trainer than Donald McCain So For me the value In the Arkle market, has to be Al Ferof at 7/1
"Whilst times may not mean a lot" and "it is dangerous to read too much into times" pretty much sums that analysis up. I think the only reason Al Ferof was able to win the Supreme was because he was the best stayer in the race. They went hell for leather from early on, especially compared to the relatively sedate pace set in the Champion. That brought stamina to the fore and allowed him to stay on past beaten horses. The time comparison is therefore a little misleading because the way the races were run was very different. I'd be confident that Al Ferof would have got nowhere near either Hurricane Fly and Peddlers Cross in the Champion with a greater emphasis on speed. It is worth considering that Peddlers Cross might have been even closer in the Champion off a stronger pace. Absolutely agree that Al Ferof was impressive on his chase debut. His jumping improved throughout and he won easily from a few decent enough animals. I think the trainer and jockey points are slightly over the top because I have every confidence in both Donald McCain and Jason Maguire. They are both right at the top of the tree and whilst Ruby and Paul may be a 'better' combination the difference is slight. I also think that Jason Maguire suits Peddlers Cross very well. The important thing is which horse is best.
Zenyatta....You could argue Peddlers Cross was outpaced when he won the Neptune, and then stayed on past beaten horses much like Al Ferof may have done in last years Supreme. End of the day Al Ferof completed the same course on the same day in a faster time. Peddlers Cross even had his own pacemaker in Overturn setting the race up for him, so if they needed a faster gallop then I'm sure Overturn would have set a faster gallop. Hurricane Fly has won at a far higher level over 2m4 than Peddlers Cross, so I can't agree that Peddlers Cross would have got closer off a stronger gallop. As for the trainer jockey combination, get real. Paul Nicholls is the youngest ever trainer to get to 2000 winners, and could go down as the greatest ever once he retires, whilst Donald McCain is a decent trainer, he is not in the same league, and is only were he is today, thanks to his father. If he had had to work his way up from scratch as Nicholls did, no one would have even heard of him. As for Ruby and Jason Maguire, you are trying to say there is only a slight difference. Do you honestly believe that? Jason Maguire hasn't even won a quarter of the big races Ruby has, there realy is no comparison
What you say is perfectly valid but time comparison is a notoriously untrustworthy method of analysis, as I have already said. You cannot say Al Ferof would have beaten Peddlers Cross because he ran his race faster on the same day over the same distance. The crucial difference is that they were in different races. It can only be used to provide a comparison, not a definitive conclusion. It is then necessary to utilise judgement to determine the relative merits of each performance. I am not saying that Walsh and Nicholls are not better than McCain and Maguire. In my opinion Ruby is the best jockey ever and Nicholls the best trainer. In that respect they are the 'dream team' if you like. However, if you wrote off a horses chances just because that horses wasn't trained by Nicholls and ridden by Ruby Walsh you wouldn't do very well. It is a ridiculous argument. Please don't say Donald has not deserved every bit of his success. He is a far far superior trainer to his late father. Just ask Nicholls.
nh is different to flat as the start the flag goes down at different times and different run up distances. the supreme was actually slightly slower than the champion from the first hurdle .the flag start in the supreme contributed to the quicker time! also with the champion hurdle pace being slower,when they actually picked up 4 hurdles from home they were 2 secs quicker than the supreme. yesterday bangor times by peddlers cross as impressive i have to say.converted into a hcap rating ,kilkenny a 107 yesterday would of been 52 lenghths behind
Shergar uses the wrong sort of method for comparison but I think the value point in some ways does add up- providing you have faith in the form of the Supreme Novices 2011 race (Personally I do), and I think Spirit Son will go on to run very well in the Champion Hurdle. Al Ferof stays 2m strongly, is proven at Cheltenham, and will run on up the hill. Peddlers Cross much the same. The one difference is known form- Peddlers got within a length and a half of Hurricane Fly, who might be the best since Istabraq, whereas Al Ferofs form needs more time to be scruitinised. You probably won't get your answers to the debate until the Arkle itself in March. I suspect there will be two kep points in the race that separate them: a) Accurate jumping, and b) The response when the pace quickens 4 out. So far, both have been good at the first part, and more time and racing will improve that aspect to the level required. Part b) is what fascinates me- Peddlers Cross got right on the front end in the Champion Hurdle, quickened it up past his pacemaker and stayed on strongly only to find a supertsar too good. Al Ferof on the other hand was outpaced when it quickened 3 out, but stayed on strongly to win the race. One won, the other didn't. Yet the one that didn't may have achieved the most. Racing Logic, eh?! Cracking pair of novice chasers who I hope fitness permitting, will serve up a firecracker of an Arkle this season, and I think no matter who you are on or would fancy, it is hard to ignore their potential as chasers as a racing fan over the next couple of seasons.
Hate to sound curmudgeonly but this PC and AF debate is extremely tiresome and it's still November. PC has beaten a total of 6 duffers in two starts and confirmed he can jump,something we already knew from his PTP days,yet everyone is becoming incontinent,salivating and gushing with platitudes. Al Ferof's main opponent blew out and he cruised home against a field of knackers and dray horses.He also has PTP form. Redolent of Punchestowns v Long Run in the RSA of last year...both were expected to dominate the race at everthings else expense and yet both were hammered and the former was a great 173 rated hurdler. Sound familiar lemmings? This could well be the case in the Arkle.I don't think either will win and also think GC won't get 3m1f never mind win the RSA.All hype. There.I've said it. I am of course being mischievous but does anybody ever think laterally anymore?!
Dexter! You hardly sitting on the fence but who do you nominate as the victor in the Arkle and the RSA . . . ? P.S. I think that will be the difference Toppy.
...haven't a clue Zen...!..however,I will lay the Arkle two big guns. Like Last Instalment a lot and was impressed by Bob's Worth,who is obviously in the Long Run batch of NH horses who have been trained with March in mind...too early to get involved tbh though.
I wonder if Mr Henderson ran Minella Class against Peddlers at the weekend in order to obtain a ‘reference point’ of where Sprinter Sacre stood in comparison to Don McCain’s horse. It would certainly be interesting to know where Mr Henderson feels Sprinter Sacre stands in relation to Peddlers now that he has obtained a ‘marker’. We may know something concrete ourselves within the week as Sprinter Sacre has been entered to run at Warwick on Sunday in a begineers chase.
I must say I'm a little surprised that Mr Henderson has not had Sprinter Sacre out before now. Then again Finian's Rainbow only started at the Hennessy meeting last year. Looking forward to seeing him jump a fence if he takes up his engagement on Sunday. Who will take the ride assuming that Barry Geraghty will be at Fairyhouse for the triple G1 card . . . ?
Well, a little bit of debate needs to be sparked back on this thread, after Sprinter Sacre blew Peddlers Cross' season wide open. Having looked like having a terrific chance in the Arkle, Don McCain has now suggested he might be stepped up in trip. That was almost unthinkable a few months ago, when McCain made it clear that the Arkle was the plan. I would not like to see Peddlers at 3m just yet, and the RSA is a gruelling race. Personally I think they need to sit down calmly and have a think. Today wasn't the end of the world. Sprinter Sacre was simply awesome, but he is an absolute speedball and jumps so extravagantly that Kempton isn't going to give you the chance to peg him back. He was weakened out of it at Cheltenham in the Supreme Novices and I'm not sure I'd be keen to take such a short price until we saw him in a battle. A couple of things to take note of today- firstly how much do we think Peddlers' mistake at the first fence took out of him? Secondly, is it fair to say the distance was slightly flattering, despite the authoritative nature of the win? What comparisons from history do we have, between form at Christmas and form at Cheltenham? For example, one might point to Captain Chris last season staying on strongly to reverse form with the likes of Ghizao and Medermit in a tough uphill finish. Just how much does Kempton truly suit speed horses in comparison to an undulating track like Cheltenham? I'd be interested to see your thoughts, this is where the threads are very useful for reflection and development
Toppy I've never seen Peddlers Cross travel so badly so I am thinking the mistake did take quite a lot out of him, or maybe he wasn't quite right. Having said that, Sprinter Sacre was awesome today and won with his head in his chest. The distance was maybe flattering. Maguire was looking round 2 out, accepting he was beat, and let PC come home in his own time. Geraghty also eased the winner down, so we can't really put too much emphasis on the distance today. I do remember the Supreme Novices last year, Sprinter Sacre tanked down the hill and McCoy was pullling double off the final bend, yet he finished worst of the first 3 up the hill. Obviously chasing is at a slightly slower pace and he will be bigger and stronger this season, and for me the only doubt is whether he is a "true 2 mile speedster" or whether he will get the Arkle trip. Class horse though, very impressive today.
.......just watched the race back again and i wouldnt right off Peddlers Cross the first fence blunder had a severe effect he never travelled at all after that SS was flattered by the margin of victory Jason settled for 2nd a long way out. Cheltenham left handed a bit more cut in the ground one hell of a race, not much betwen them.
this is the first time hes gone right handed ,even his point to point was left handed and he would never of ran here if haydock the other week wasnt heavy going.not a great reason but also he ran really fast at bangor lto as minella class pushed him to run fast that day,clocking a time that was way above everything else on that card. his worst ever race came after a short rest after a tough race in the champion hurdle and in previous seasons he as had either a decent break on his 3rd run or his 3rd run was much later in the season.
