The worry for antepost backers, is wether the Arkle will be his festival target. He should easily have the speed being a Champion Hurdle runner up, but he does stay further, and connections may prefer the Jewson. The other worry for me is that he jumped so well today, that connections may even go for the Champion Chase, when a novice jumps aswell as that, then you have to take the bigger races into consideration. Don't forget he has had experience in point to points, so he was no normal novice making his chasing debut today
Donald McCain has said that he will run in either the Arkle or the RSA and I will be gobsmacked if he goes to the RSA. I think it is fairly certain that if he makes the Festival he will line up in the Arkle. I also think it doubtful that he will be allowed to take his chance in the Champion Chase. http://www.racingpost.com/news/hors...ps-out-arkle-route-for-peddlers-cross/903715/ There is no question about his likely target in my mind which is part of the reason why i thought the 9/1 for the Arkle was worth taking.
My mistake because it seems the Jewson is still a possibility. I was of the understanding that they did not think it right to be running a horse as good as this in a Grade 2 at the Festival. I would still be very very surprised if he wasn't aimed at the Arkle. He is tailor made for the race. "The Arkle Chase is the likeliest ultimate aim for last season's Champion Hurdle runner-up, with bookmakers keeping his price for that contest unchanged at 6-1, although McCain said he would not rule out the possibility of going for the Jewson Chase over 2½ miles as an alternative."
Zen....The Arkle is his likeliest target, but it is far from set in stone. Don't forget he was running over 3 miles in points, so he does stay, and if they want to eventually go for the Gold Cup with him then the RSA is the more ideal stepping stone. As for the Champion Chase, if he continues jumping that well, then there is every chance he could be considered, they may even run in a 2 mile race against some established horse's, just to see where they stand. Just as the Tizzards did last season, to see if Cue Card was Champion Hurdle class. I'm not saying either way were he will run, but Ive been watching racing far to long, to be predicting horse's Cheltenham targets, at this stage of the season
That's just coincidental Zen, I know if I was still bookmaking, then I'd be pricing up the RSA winner shorter for the following years GC, than the Arkle winner. Recently the Arkle winners have been performing well in the Champion Chase, and haven't been going for the GC
Just watched the replay and his jumping was accurate throughout. We got a little glimpse of his talent as Timmy Murphy asked him to quicken going into the last, saw a stride and he absolutely pinged it. His jumping style reminds me a little bit of my hero Dessie when he was really flowing - accurate, barely slowing down at the fence and almost just skipping over it. He seems a bigger horse than he looked over hurdles - maybe he has filled out a little? I really hope they go the Arkle route, he clearly has the speed to win it and I find the RSA a very attritional race - it has so often left a mark on the winner.
He wouldn't be the tallest but he is very compact and powerful. He has all the right attributes and his mental qualities will stand him in good stead over fences. The first time i saw him in the flesh was in the rescheduled Fighting Fifth last year. I was very impressed with what i saw and he definitely looked a chaser in the making to me that day. He's just beautifully put together: very well balanced and well proportioned. Also agree 100% that they would be mad to go any other route than the Arkle.
Just reviewed Peddlers and he just looks a complete natural over fences, what he lacks in size he makes up for in every other way. If he remains injury free and turns up he wins the Arkle simple as that. What we are witnessing here is the carreer developing of a future NH megastar emphasis on...MEGA and STAR. Cant wait to see him get serious. Awesome horse!
I wouldn't be crowning him the Arkle winner just yet, the big races at the festival are always strongly contested, and I'm sure the likes of Al Ferof and Sprintre Sacre will be very good chasers, and are obvious Arkle prospects. Al Ferof is one I'm most excited about, and he won the Supreme in a faster time than Hurricane Fly won the Champion Hurdle, and Peddlers Cross was runner up to HF
Some facts for you Part 1 Part 2 Or having looked at Part 1 just look at the post immediately following that.
Well exactly Ron, there is no guarantee that Peddlers Cross was a better hurdler than Al Ferof or Sprintre Sacre, particularly when we take into account the times of both races at the festival, and as the post says hurdling form doesn't always translate to fences, it just gives us an idea, but with Sprintre Sacre and Al Ferof being trained by the best 2 trainers in the UK and Ireland, then I certainly wouldn't be overly worried about there ability to jump a fence
Although I'm happy to dish out stats if I have them, I'm not a stats fan personally. For example, if PC wins the Arkle next year he will be the first since Sir Ken etc etc So then the stats merely reflect that only 2 horses have ever won ..... How many potential Arkle winners have contested a Ch Hurdle? Wasn't it touch and go whether PC ran in the Ch or something else at the Festival? However, if Al Ferof jumps impressively on his chasing début, then 9/1 PC for the Arkle might not look so good. What we do know at present is that PC has confirmed his ability over fences, won very easily in a very respectable time and is clearly going the right way. What we don't know is too much about the others. We might be disappointed or we may be drooling. On balance, I would would be inclined to agree that 9/1 for a specific race at the Festival, in March, on the basis of a very easy win over modest opponents, is not exactly generous. But good luck to those who have taken it.
I can't see Donald McCain going down that road tbh, and novices have a pretty poor record in Championship races at the festival. There was that horse of Martin Pipes (Gloria Victis?) that ran in the GC and had a fatal fall. Then there was Beef or Salmon who imo never got over falling in the GC in his novice seaon. It'll be all about the Arkle for Peddlars Cross I reckon, even if the RSA trip may suit better.
Yes, sorry I took it as 1pt staked not 1pt EW +13.4pts (Ron if you are reading can you edit the post from last night as I don't want to be seen to be altering the data!)
Your right AR.....But as you've pointed out, in the past some trainers have been greedy with there novices, and gone for the Championship race, rather than a novice event. I think there is a pretty big difference between the Gold Cup and the RSA, but I'm not convinced that the Champion Chase is a massive step up in class from the Arkle. Obviously it is a tougher race, I'm not disputing that, but it is no coincidence how well Arkle winners have performed when in the Champion Chase the following season
Just curious why you think the RSA trip will suit him better? This is a horse who mixed it with the best over hurdles at 2m achieving a rating of 170. He also showed himself to be excellent over 2m4f as a Novice but i struggle to see how it could be argued that the RSA trip will suit him better than the stiff 2m of the Arkle. I would be hopeful that he might make up into a 3m chaser in the future but i would be astounded if they took the staying route in his novice season.
Isn't it arguable that he was just tapped for speed against Hurricane Fly last March, and that it was his class that allowed him to get so close over a trip shy of his best? That's how I read it, although if he was mine I'd still be aiming him at the Arkle this season, and maybe the Gold Cup next. Horses that run well in the Arkle tend to have a decent record in the GC do they not? I'm thinking of Best Mate and Kicking King for example.
