100% agree but Sprinter Sacre hasn't run over fences either, so the only evidence we have available is hurdles form. Therefore, as Peddlers Cross was a much better hurdler, at this stage, surely he deserves to be a shorter price, and by more than the current available odds? As we are all aware, he has also won a point-to-point, apparently jumping well, so it could be argued that he has at least shown an affinity to some larger obstacles, though i appreciate the link is tenuous. I can't believe that Donald McCain will have sacrificed a top class hurdle campaign to run him in the Jewson. He looks tailor made for the Arkle and i would be very very surprised if he were to go anywhere else.
Peddlers has also had an extra season hurdling and SS is possibly open to more natural improvement as a racehorse because of this. As for the prices, to me both are rank value.
Yes, sorry, very poorly worded by me there. Obviously it would be ridiculous to say that an exceptional hurdling talent would be better value for a novice chase than another horse which showed very little talent or potential but had won one poor chase at some point... However with reference to the horses in question though, I think neither of them represent particularly good value. I think that either would be an assumption too far given that we a) haven't seen either chase and b) can't be certain that either will even be aimed at the race... Although I agree the Arkle seems the most likely target for both, a lot can change in 5 months. Fair point about Cue Card, but the 5.8% represented by the odds on betfair seems more reasonable to me than 9.1% and 11.1% for horses which haven't chased. As I said, probably won't be taking any of them without more knowledge, but maybe that's it - I'm clearly just more risk averse than you Zenyatta, and when Peddlers Cross massacres his first Chasing field, no doubt I'll look a fool!
I understand Danish. And your argument is perfectly sensible. As for the above, i very much hope that you will look like a complete idiot at say 1.50 on Wednesday 9th November!
Next Episode will be published at some point after the Charlie Hall chase is run on Saturday. Should give us some talking points and potentially a big talent to focus on. Hope that sounds reasonable folks
As I said earlier this week, I thought these threads would have many a use as reference points, and today is the same for Peddlers Cross. I thought he made a really nice debut, he jumped solidly and economically, he travelled nicely. What I also liked, and this is what does excite me in terms of his long-term future, was that when they went slow, he didn't get keen- he simply relaxed, switched off and still jumped every bit as well. This is a horse that I think will win 3m chases at some point. He is rightful favourite for the Arkle at the moment but tere is still a long way to go and more questions to be answered. However I have to say I think he could step up to King George/Gold Cup territory within a season or two, he seems to have the temerament. However he seems to have the speed and jumping to win an Arkle, so I am really excited to see how he progresses.
As I wrote on the other thread he was very economical at his fences, and watching the replay I thought we would learn very little. But then they came to the last, Timmy Murphy asked him to quicken and he really saw a stride coming to the fence. Peddlars Cross pinged it and sauntered away up the run-in. He has to go to the Arkle IMHO, the RSA is a killer race and I don't think such a promising horse should be sent there. Yes he could win it but it would leave scars IMHO. I would normally say it would take a very good horse to beat Peddlers Cross. But I'll be so bold as to say it will take a very good horse to get him off the bridle this season.
Just goes to show what a horse Hurricane Fly is Peddlers looks a real Arkle horse but it's still very early doors with most of the big novice chasers yet to enter the fray. What I would say is, purely jumping wise, that PC sets a very high bar for the opposition to be judged against.
TopClass, I always smile a little when people start raving about a good hurdler winning this and that over fences- when he's either not run yet- or taken on any opposition of note. "I was listening closely to Paul Nicholls this week when I heard him say that despite the Arkle being the minimum trip over fences at Cheltenham, you still need to be able to stay strongly." "What sort of record do horses like this have when they go chasing? When I ask that, I’m referring to horses that, as Sir Barney might put it, have “dined at the top table” over hurdles, if not necessarily winning the top honours." From what I remember, most Arkle winners were not stayers and those that did manage 20 furlongs were at their very limit. Fences don't take as much stamina as hurdles, so I don't necessarily agree with Paul Nicholls, although his comment obviously relates to "like-for-like" at Cheltenham. Also, most Arkle winners were not top rank over hurdles. Yes, Moscow Flyer and more latterly Sizing Europe were good hurdlers but neither got anywhere in the Champion Hurdle, and I can't remember the last horse to be placed in the Champion Hurdle - and then win the Arkle. Probably Flyingbolt in the mid sixties! Therefore, Peddler's Cross will need to be in a minority; likewise not too many favourites win it either. So you wouldn't get me taking 6/1 ante-post for him In the Arkle- I'd want even money on him even getting to Cheltenham in one piece! As regards Peddler's Cross being a good thing because of his proximity to Hurricane Fly, I'd like someone to tell me (these two excepted) another top hurdler who's run three races the same in the last 5 years? Put another way, the overall depth of top hurdlers has been dire in recent years. That doesn't take anything away from H. Fly's consistency, but I don't go overboard about him either, excellent though he is. Yet this is fencing and there's a lot of water under the bridge before March; and I'd like to see these novices galloping downhill to the third last At Cheltenham- and see how they handle that fence, before having them home and dry in the Arkle.
Evening Tam Sir Ken won the Ch Hurdle in 1952, 1953 and 1954 and went on to win the Arkle in 1956. As far as I can see no other horse has ever been placed in the Champion Hurdle and then won the Arkle. Flyingbolt won the Irish Ch Hurdle in 1964 and went on to win the Arkle the following year.
PS. The only horses to win any other major hurdle race at Cheltenham and go on to win the Arkle were: Greektown won the Supreme Novice Hurdle in 1961 and the Arkle in 1964 Flyingbolt also won the Supreme Novice Hurdle 1964 My Way de Solzen won the Long Walk Hurdle 2005, Stayers World Hurdle 2006 and the Arkle 2007 As far as I can tell.
Completely fair points Tam, absolutely. There's just something about Peddlers Cross that makes me think he might end up being special. You are quite right though, the Arkle is no foregone conclusion, not by any means. Are there any novice chasers out over the Cheltenham meeting this weekend who would warrant a watchful eye?
Good evening, Ron, yes, Flyingbolt did run third in the Champion Hurdle, but of course not as a novice- Dreaper entered him and Arkle in 1966, and Flyingbolt ran and was third to Salmon Spray. TopClass, good evening, there's nothing I particularly fancy in the novice chases at Cheltenham over the weekend, although Restless Harry is well favoured by the weight conditions and should win if he jumps well. The only thing is long distance hurdlers don't have a great record when they go long distance novice chasing, especially when they've been hurdling for quite a while.
I never read too much into these races, small field, uncompetitive race, the only benefit is that the horse proved in public that he has been schooled and can jump fences - we all knew how good the horse was before yesterday but the fact he beat a 121 rated chaser by 4 lengths around Bangor told me little, and for bookies to slash his Arkle odds on the back of that is laughable. I hope the horse is given a proper test or two before Cheltenham, jumping at speed is vital in March and we'll only know how serious this horse can be over fences if challenged.
Being in the office, no chance to see, but how did he go? 4.5 lengths seems facile enough even with only 3 runners, but was his jumping ok?
He didn't make any errors, and won the race very easily, he was 1/8 though, which tells you everything you need to know about the opposition. He hasn't shortened up in the Arkle Market which is a suprise, as he appeared to be a natural chaser. We will find out more when he faces some proper opposition, but as things stand he has only enhanced his Arkle chances with today's effort
