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Under The Spotlight: 'Episode 3'- Peddlers Cross | Horse Racing

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by TopClass, Oct 14, 2011.

  1. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    If both turn up in the best of health Peddlers Cross will have run a corker, and I do mean a corker, if he gets within 10 lengths of Mr Henderson's Sprinter Sacre.

    Peddlers proved himself to be first rate over hurdles, but as we all know, that is no prerequisite to a horse becoming a fencing star - another recent Champion Hurdle runner-up (Celestial Halo) proved that last term don't forget, people. Personally, I'd have kept him over hurdles for another season as he could have been expected to be very near the top of that sphere. Over fences though there is no such 'guarantee' especially given the standard of horse making the change in codes this time around (as outlined above by Toppy). Given that he could probably have earned a 6 figure sum over hurdles, this term, without that much of a problem the move to chasing looks a Gamble with a capital 'G' by connections. But I do applaud their bravery.

    I've spoken before about how much I really like Sprinter Sacre and think he will be a revelation over the 'big 'uns' this season. He's undoubtedly in the very best of hands as Mr Henderson, the forum's favourite trainer, has won the Arkle on 3 occasions so certainly knows how to prepare an outstanding novice for the big day. Sprinter Sacre has always been thought of as a chaser, rather than a hurdler, and his exploits over timber were highly commendable given it wasn't really the game for him and when competing over them he was, in the main, a raw and immature type using them as an educational tool. Now as a more mature, developed and experienced gelding approaching his 6th birthday expect the real Sprinter Sacre to come to the fore during this campaign as fences spark the ignition that looks likely to propel him to the very top.

    But don't get me wrong I'm not saying that Peddlers Cross will be a 'back number' over fences. My opinion is far from that. In fact if someone held a gun to my head, which I'm sure that no-one would ever want to do, then he would, at this stage, be the one that I'd nominate as old Sprinter Sacre's toughest opponent. It is though my enthuasim for the latter animal which prevents me from going into raptures about Don McCain's charge.

    In brief then I wouldn't want to get involved in backing Peddlers Cross at 7/1 but I would put no-one, and I do mean no-one, off getting involved in Sprinter Sacre at 10's.
     
    #21
  2. heisenburg

    heisenburg Well-Known Member

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    just seen Mr Mcain on atr
    confirmed PC booed to run at Bangor 9th Nov, then take it fom there with an obvious eye onthe festivals
    going great at home but wont be going futher than 2,4 this year
    seemed a very nice honest man
    Good luck to the pair of them this season
     
    #22
  3. rounders

    rounders Member

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    What excites me the most about PC is the probability that he would have cleaned up every hurdle race he entered that didn't also feature the Hurricane and yet connection still choose to send him chasing....
     
    #23
  4. rounders

    rounders Member

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    In my book the greatest sporting event since Balboa v Drago would be if the Hurricane faced off against Big Bucks over 2m 4f. I know it's off topic but jesus christ that would be brilliant.
     
    #24
  5. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    As Dan said, Don McCain was on Attheraces. Peddlers Cross has done his first schooling and it went according to plan. He says he's probably the most exciting horse he is going to have, thoroughly expect him to jump a fence well and is going well at home.

    He remains on course for a clash with Al Ferof at Bangor on Nov 9th.
     
    #25
  6. Ardent1965

    Ardent1965 Well-Known Member

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    My guess is that he'll win and be top priced 7/2 for the Arkle thereafter. 8s with Ladbrokes i think is value now.
     
    #26
  7. rounders

    rounders Member

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    pc is the best hurdler to go chasing this season and as such must, and I do means must, be at the head of the Arkle market. Until I see him flop over fences with my own eyes he'll be value at any price down to 6's
     
    #27
  8. Zenyatta

    Zenyatta Active Member

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    I have now remedied my previous error and have 'invested' at the standout 8/1 offered by Ladbrokes. He is 6/1 across the board with the other firms and into 7/1 on Betfair so took the price while it was there.
     
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  9. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Dreadful value before he has jumped a fence. He is a very high class horse but taking that price for him isn't for me.

    If he jumps well on debut then you will look to have a really fair price, but he may have to beat Al Ferof on debut!
     
    #29
  10. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    Does anyone think Al Ferof might be aimed at slightly further this season? I know he won the Supreme Novies Hurdle, but the way that race was run screamed he was a 2 and a half miler. He was bounding towards the line!
     
    #30

  11. Zenyatta

    Zenyatta Active Member

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    In his start of season owners day Nicholls said that Al Ferof would start off over 2 miles and then most likely step up to 2 and a 1/2 as the season progressed. He looked more of a stayer than a 2miler to me, for all that you need to be a thorough stayer to win the Arkle. I fancy a few to have a little too much toe for him.
     
    #31
  12. Zenyatta

    Zenyatta Active Member

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    And if he beats Al Ferof, one of his supposed main challengers and jumps well then he might well be 7/2 or similar. I think it's well worth the risk at this stage.
     
    #32
  13. TopClass

    TopClass Well-Known Member

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    I agree, I think if you want value on Peddlers Cross then now is the time to do it.

    Fascinating clash between he and Al Ferof, and could yet decide the plans for the season for the pair.


    Is it possible that Al Ferof might end up in the Jewson, given the possibilities of him going up to 2m4f?
     
    #33
  14. Grizzly

    Grizzly Active Member

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    'Value' can be determine dby many factors.
    I avoid ante post betting like the plague especially as the modern day Festival has found a way of creating races that mean any horse could have 4 or 5 entries at the meeting.
    'Value' though for me is analysing form, ground, distance etc all the things you would expect, and if PC lines up in the Arkle having won three chases by an aggregate of 60 lengths beating all his main challengers and lines up in the Arkle at 5/4, I would consider that exceptional value. Getting him there of course is a different story.
    I would happily have a serious bet at 5/4 with all factors considered, but 8/1 in October and before he's jumped a fence just isn't for me.

    Separate issue but I think the multiple entry thing could almost ruin ante post punting for Cheltenham, does anyone know if there's a bookie that offers an ante post price for a horse to win any race at the festival ?
    I remember taking 5/1 Bensalem for any race about 1 week before last years Festival...
     
    #34
  15. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    If you think 8/1 is value on a horse who has never faced fences then I think I am in the wrong game. He will be shorter if he beats Al Ferof on debut, but then you will at least know whether he jumps fences with fluency. 8/1 might be a bigger price but I think if he wins and is 5/1 then that will be much better value.

    In all, value isn't about big odds, its about odds that are in line with his chances at the said time.
     
    #35
  16. Ardent1965

    Ardent1965 Well-Known Member

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    This debate is certainly hotting up. I get the feeling most think Peddlers is worthy fav for the Arkle at this time but whether his price is value is the question. If 8s isn't value what is?
     
    #36
  17. Sir Barney Chuckles

    Sir Barney Chuckles Who Dares Wins

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    Value, like beauty and fine art, is very much in the eye of the beholder and what’s value to one person most deffo won’t be considered as the same to another.

    It always makes me laugh when someone says that because a horse is 25/1 then he’s value but because another is 6/4 he isn’t. This to me always indicates someone who has no appreciation of what the word actually means. To me value is all about getting bigger odds about a horse than you think you should. For example, if you think a horse should be Evens and 2/1 is available then that’s value and should be snapped up. However, if you think a charge deserves to be 25/1 and only 16/1 is available then that most deffo isn’t a value price and you should swerve it. You wouldn’t afterall buy shares or a property for more than you think prudent so why do it with the odds on a horse?!?

    Applying this logic to Peddlers Cross if you think he deserves to be shorter than 8/1 get on. If you think he doesn’t don’t.
     
    #37
  18. Grizzly

    Grizzly Active Member

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    ''Applying this logic to Peddlers Cross if you think he deserves to be shorter than 8/1 get on. If you think he doesn’t don’t.''

    SBC - I agree with everything you said until this point.
    No-one is disputing that the horse is the most likely winner of the Arkle and if he makes raceday fit and in form he'll be a hell of alot shorter than 8/1, the problem is that raceday is 5 months away and there are so many unknowns between now and then.
    At the moment, apart form the very small minority of those close to the horse, we are assuming he still has 4 legs and is being aimed at the Arkle, he could be 'chucked in' to staying novice chase and stay very well forcing connections to consider an RSA bid, he could (God forbid) pull up lame on the gallops 2 days before Cheltenham, and it is these inponderables that make ante post punting, for me, poor value.
    Happy to unload my wheelbarrow in the ring at a much shorter proce after I've seen him canter down to the start...
     
    #38
  19. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    "No-one is disputing that the horse is the most likely winner of the Arkle "

    without seeing him jump a fence I would say I am disputing this.
     
    #39
  20. Grizzly

    Grizzly Active Member

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    ''No-one is disputing that the horse is the most likely winner of the Arkle''

    .....on all current evidence
    :emoticon-0148-yes: ?
     
    #40

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