Off Topic UK / EU Future

The whole thing of the referendum was topsy turvy Leo. Normally Governments give their populations a choice on a piece of legislation which the government wants to get through - in that case the worst that can happen is that the Government loses and doesn't do it. The way it happened in the UK. was to open the way for a protest vote - and some people actually voted leave in order to hurt the government and the establishment. Many people voted for other reasons - some left wingers did so because they thought that nationalization would be more difficult within the EU. (another myth). They all voted for a journey, but most gave no thought for the destination. In the dream of the hard core Brexiters they thought we would be in one day and out the next - most had never heard of Article 50. We are suffering as a result of a vote which was not legally binding, but which our politicians do not have the balls to actually ignore - voted for, actually, by a minority of the population.

 

The real problem as of today is still the same as it was at the time of the referendum, Northern Ireland. This is why there is no agreement as to how to proceed. There was a good debate this evening in the Lords on the subject. The Good Friday Belfast agreement that everyone wants to honour states that there cannot be a hard border. This eliminates the possibility of dropping out of the EU without an agreement as we would fall into WTO rules which have to have hard borders for customs. So we have two proposals from the government that are not practical for technical reasons, and in any case would take a minimum of five years to effect according to HMRC. The EU suggested a border in the sea, but the DUP have rejected it. That only leaves the fallback option, to remain within the CU. No one has come up with any fresh ideas. The very fact that the government agreed to have the fallback position written into the December statement is what has set off the extremists. They see a red line becoming a pale pink. but despite all the noise they have failed to suggest a workable plan. Today it was suggested that the cabinet was due to agree within what the policy would be, but yet again it has been kicked further down the road. The EU want to have a clear policy that they can work with next month. Davis doesn't seem to think that there will be one before October. No one seems to have an answer that will not upset the leavers.

 

If you are stating that Northern Ireland with its population of less than 2m should dictate brexit then I cannot agree. If the Good Friday agreement has to be replaced with the May Day agreement (see where I went with that one ) so be it. It was not only the DUP who rejected effectively giving NI to Eire - I suspect the vast majority of the UK would object.

 

Yes it was a badly thought out and terribly executed referendum. But it took place and we are faced with the result. Crazy I know. You and one or two others keep on the mantra that it was advisory but the government committed to abiding by it so it was not.

 

The population of Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU, therefore the DUP are not representative of their views. If the government was not held hostage by this strange band of brothers, trying not to say what I really think, then people would not be talking about ditching an International agreement that took years to produce and has saved many lives.
The fact that there are only 2M doesn't come into it. If you wish to ignore them, I could suggest that you ignore places like Yarmouth, Sunderland, etc until you get up to the 2M.
As a matter of interest I looked up who said that we should follow the Norway and Swiss model of association with the EU. It was no less than Nigel Farage. He suggested this on a number of occasions during the campaign, then after the result changed his tune.

 

I have not even mentioned the DUP. The population of Scotland voted to remain - will you advocate they stay in the customs union too?
I did not suggest ignoring 2m. I pointed out their number - against rUK 63m. Do you advocate ignoring them?
If the people of NI wish to leave the UK I would expect to see a movement equivalent to the SNP and calls for a referendum on it. There is no such call so I take it that the majority of the population of NI wish to remain in the UK. It is a strangely EU viewpoint that thinks otherwise. They are using the Good Friday agreement for their own agenda. If work needs to be done then and if the EU cannot accept there will be no border in the Irish Sea then a new NI/Eire agreement needs to be considered.
Do you normally give any credence to Nigel Farage?
As it happens I agree that many arguing for brexit did mention a Norway,Switzerland or Canada model as a basis for a UK plus model. However Cameron and Osborne stated unequivocally that brexit meant no customs union or membership of the single market.

 

I really cannot see how or why it can be acceptable to suggest tearing up an International agreement, lodged with the UN, overseen by the EU, simply to get the government out of difficulties created by itself. This is not a simple NI/Eire agreement. This is the problem with trying to build walls around yourself to keep others out, you become trapped on the inside. The government has trapped itself inside, and is now looking to civil servants to build them a new ladder.

 

Why not - it is a 20 year old agreement that has been good for its purpose. If it needs updating or replacing so be it. It is not enshrined in centuries of history.
The people trapped the government. They voted brexit. The government is entitled to look at all ways forward.

 

You suggest that it could be replaced with a new negotiated agreement. Fine, how long might that take? Would it be ready for next month or October at the latest?
Of course they have to look at all ways forward. The government has a problem though, one that has been with it for decades. It has a right wing that has far more noise than the majority of the MPs within. This is how they became trapped, when a referendum was seen as a means to shut them up. They got that wrong, and most of the decisions since.

 

I would agree that it was a selection of right wing politicians whose noise brought the referendum about, but not, necessarily that the Brexit initiative is a right wing phenomenon. Worth remembering that leaving the EU. was part of the manifesto of Michael Foot, whereas Thatcher was for staying. Sections of the left have always been sceptical of the EU. seeing it as a neo liberal club which protects the free market from any threat from below. These people will have seen the enforced privatizations in Greece, and will have seen that a future Labour programme could be hindered by some aspects of EU. law (actually there is still some question over this one-which has not been cleared up). I have always dreaded a referendum on this because the media has been doing nothing other than blaming Europe for everything for a couple of decades. The main problem is that many British do not feel European - rather they often feel that they are culturally more attached to the USA. or to the Commonwealth than to France or Germany, and so their only lever for staying in was economic. Unfortunately economic arguments do not necessarily come over well in debate - you need facts, figures etc. all those boring details which cannot balance out the vitriolic mantras of your opponents. The main mistake of the referendum was that there was no compulsory voting, and the 'leave' vote was always going to have a maximum turnout, whereas the same didn't apply to the remain vote. Even Jeremy Corbyn had said he was only 70% for remain - well, if you are 70% and your opponent is 100% against there can only be one result.

 

A nicely balanced view cologne.

 

Whoops, my finger nodded off.

 

Today there have been council elections, and for someone who spent far too many years in local government, to see people on both sides of the Brexit argument equating voting on national lines is not what it should be about. I never stood for election under a political banner, just my record, and the help I tried to bring to people who needed it. When I first joined the system all of us did it because we wanted to serve the areas we lived in. At a later date it was suggested that we should be paid to do it. Pleased to say that there were enough who rejected it. Today however I see people who regard it as a career, and MPs who appear to be more interested in how votes in Westminster will spoil their off-shore holdings than really being concerned about the country as a whole. Maybe I am becoming more and more cynical in my old age, but I see politicians who do not have the best interests of the people as their priority. People who stand time and time again for Parliament, yet never get elected can still make a grand mess of the country. Political parties who will say almost anything to stay in or attempt to gain power. This is not what it should be like. Speaking to people both sides of the Channel I hear the same thing time and time again, we do not really want any of them. Very sad, but over the past forty or fifty years that is how it has become.

 

I think TM's government may have accidentally found the best strategy for a good brexit. Be so uncertain and divided that the EU feel sorry for us and as it is as much in their interests to find a deal and move on they set out a "nice" deal for us which they will buy into

 

The EU currently have far bigger problems than Brexit. Merkel's open door policy is being seriously challenged in Germany and by the surge in anti EU attitudes right across the continent.

Could both Merkel and May be gone by the end of the week?

 

Second question first - no. If you are up for it I will take any bet - and am happy to alter that to either
I actually agree that Brexit is reasonably low down the EU agenda. However that is mainly because the UK have given them nothing to consider. Medium term it is important for the EU to trade well with the UK - we are important markets for each other so it is not an insignificant issue.
I am not sure Merkel still has an open door policy does she? It was probably over stated at the time and certainly she has down played it since. All European countries including the UK have still to grapple the long term issues around people movement.
I am sure though that most countries are able to consider many issues at the same time.

 

The ramification of her open door policy, whether she has changed her mind or not, rumbles on. She has caused the dramatic strengthening of the far right in Germany and lost the trust of her country's neighbours. Naturally they have all taken unilateral action on immigration to suite their own agendas. Her decision to act without consultation with other leaders or gain consensus within Germany has seriously eroded her authority.

The EU will no doubt eventually toughen up its policy of returning non refugee migrants. It is understandable these economic migrants want a better life but no country can have an immigration policy based on the ability to sneak in without authority.

Countries closing their borders have significantly reduced the migrant flow, returning those already in Europe illegally would kill the smuggling gangs business stone dead.

The burden of dealing with this crisis will fall on the EU especially those within the Schengen area which has greatly assisted the free flow of migrants including many terrorists.

 

As you say Leo, most countries are capable of multi tasking. How strange to see SH. forecasting the end of 2 Conservative politicians within the week ! As regards the first (ie. May) - I can well remember when Cameron said to Corbyn ''For heavens sake man go'', at a time when the latter had problems with his own MPs - little did we know that Cameron would actually go first. If a second Tory PM. goes then Jeremy will have outlasted 3 Conservative leaders - not a bad record. How many more times will the Tories try out leaders, realize their mistake, and then discard them ? The electorate won't wear that one. As for Merkel this is another matter. Her problem is that Germany could go out of the World Cup early. It is a well known fact that German governments introduce internally unpopular legislation during football World Cups - there is a history to this, but Mexico have dampened everything making it more difficult to use football as a distraction. The main thing is that I pay my taxes to the government in Düsseldorf not in Berlin (ie. to the state government of NRW) - Germany is so incredibly decentralized that the absence of a real government in Berlin does not actually disrupt people's lives here in any way. So, at least internally, Germany can take the time it needs to get the constellation right in Berlin. Merkel does not have the same open door policy which she once had - but is still heartily criticized on the subject. Her main pain in the arse is Seehofer from the CSU (this is the twin party to the CDU in Bavaria). The 2 parties CDU/CSU are different - but in electoral partnership (Something like the Conservative/Unionist, or Lib Dems) essentually 2 parties under one umbrella. Without the CSU the coalition with the SPD would be insufficient - but the CDU would still be the largest party in the Bundestag and so could still form a government. The only coalition possible would be CDU/SPD/Green as an alternative to the present one of CDU/CSU and the SPD. All very complicated I know but a reason why Merkel is not going anywhere (unfortunately).

 

I think you adopt one of the more harsh views on her actions - as some others do - but equally there are a lot of people who have an opposing view and indeed support her. Not living in Germany or having much idea of their situation I find it difficult to comment. One thing is certain, migration is a difficult and emotive issue around Europe - and far wider.
I do agree that at some stage the world as a whole needs to have a proper look at migration. The world has changed and it is an issue that needs proper thought and consideration and not just a knee jerk response - which is what happens so often. Some may support the idea of economic migration - I do not. Humanitarian migration - yes.

 

I think the absence of a bet offer tells us the real forecast on M & M

Thanks for a keener insight into German politics but to be honest keeping tabs on the UK is more than I can cope with