Off Topic UK / EU Future

I don't disagree with the spirit of what you say.. But I don't think the entire us population will feel insulted by how Trump is treated here.. Half the population over there hate him.
Worth remembering too, that there has always traditionally been a percentage of the population who demonstrate against the US.. I remember doing so in the late 60s re the vietnam war etc...

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What then if we have left all our trade deals behind that we have through the EU, and we don't like what Trump is offering? Far too many eggs in one basket as you listen to politicians who are banking everything on getting something. As pointed out yesterday by a former ambassador to the US, our services are just about at maximum exposure already, so what manufacturing do we have that they don't? His view was that there should not be a deal as the US will exploit the weakness that the UK economy will be in.

 

Oh the good old hippy days, sandals, kaftan, Crosby, Stills & Nash. Wacky baccy.

 

Yes they were good times. Didn't realise that you would remember them.

 

There is an awful lot you don't seem to realise.

 

And you.. Shame you have sold out your idealism for profit.. So many did

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Yawn... You are so shallow...

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In my favourite newspaper Conservative MP Mark Francois (unfortunate surname in this context) states that Donald Tusk offered the UK a free trade agreement in March 2018 which May did not take up . She should have bitten his hand off for such an offer which would have avoided the mess we are now in. Instead she invented the "backstop".

He writes:

The new prime minister when he/she goes to the first European Council should say something along these line:

..."You need to understand , very clearly, that we are under new management. We want to trade with you equitably, in future, to our mutual advantage, but we will no longer be talked down to. The senior civil servants that were seemingly working for you are no longer in our employ.

We firmly intend to leave the EU on 31 October and thus honour the instruction of the British People in the 2016 referendum. We wish to do this amicably, but the reality is that you cannot stop us doing it anyway. The Withdrawal Agreement is dead, so we wish to move straight to the "future relationship" now bypassing the legally meaningless political declaration.

We would therefor like to begin to negotiate a comprehensive Free Trade Agreement with you, so that we can continue to trade successfully into the foreseeable future. If you do not wish to do this yet, we will continue to trade independently on WTO terms until you see sense.

I do not expect you to agree to this immediately, but be in no doubt you are dealing with a different leader, with an iron determination to leave the EU in October and one way or another, that is precisely what we are going to do"...

Seems reasonable to me and should get the support of parliament and the country and most especially puts the ball right back in the EU court.

I know most of you don't want to leave the EU but parliament would be seriously failing the British people and democracy if they did not honour the referendum result. I would be very surprised that this approach would not get the support of the British people in any subsequent referendum.

 

Deliver this as an ultimatum in this way and the EU. will just say 'close the door after you've gone' Scully. You are, in effect, asking for all of the benefits of membership without any of the responsibilities. You are saying 'we want your trade but we don't want you'. The fact is that this would amount to us saying - 'either do what we want or we will open ourselves up for the USA to jump in and then you will see the benefits of having a bargain basement country on your own doorstep'. Threatening postures of this kind would lead to a poisoning of British European relations for years to come. Democracy is a living, breathing thing which does not stand still, and cannot be frozen in time - if the people have changed their minds about Brexit then it would be a travesty of a democracy which did not take that into account. With regard to future British European relations - they are still your closest partners, and even Belgium will always be more important to you than the USA is, because of its geographical proximity. Even with a deal of some sort, a great deal of collateral damage has been done already - because trade needs good will on both sides. You can have all the deals you like but if Europeans actually don't want to buy British goods, or services, in effect, leaving them on the shelf - then no amount of free trade deals will help. I, for one, would not buy anything from a country where my wife (German) is not welcome.

 

If only it were that easy... As May has found it there are so many complexities...
The chalice of a no deal withdrawal delivering us all we want is I think a completely fallacious position, excuse my mixing metaphors.
Reminds me of that SF film gravity where the only way to survive certain death is to risk it...

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As soon as I see that Mark Francois has been shouting his mouth off again I wonder what it will be this time. This latest outburst is quite deranged. The ERG of which he is a member have come out with what they describe as a new paper. Take a look at it and you will find it is a rehash of their previous papers that have been described as totally unworkable. The paper showed no proper solutions for the border and failed to provide any detail on key issues including health checks on animals which are mandatory and must be done on the border under EU laws. Future relationship is likely to be what do you want and how much will you pay for it, as nothing will come free. Of course people like Francois will be happy to pay up providing it is the tax payers forking out.
Barnier said it succinctly : if the UK chooses no-deal, there will be no deal. Each party will go about their business individually.

Eventually it may come to the point where a deal will be discussed, but then the 3 points will have to be solved : NI, citizens and the money.

It seems a great shame that on the day that there has been so much talk of cooperation between nations, there are some in the UK saying they want to cooperate, but only on their terms. Sounds like Trump and his free trade deal, but only on his terms.

 

Scully was talking about cooperation with the EU instead of being bullied. There are some on here that always supports the opposition to the UK given the chance. They will be forming a Vichy type political movement soon.

 

Would you give us some examples of how the UK has been bullied?

 

To be fair as well the EU has always been clear that once we get the Withdrawal Agreement sorted out it will be willing to offer a Canada Plus trade deal.

 

Quite agree, but it is the Withdrawal Agreement that has to come first. Without that everything is at a standstill.

 

The Welsh government has now joined with Scotland and come out in favour of remaining in the EU. They tried to find a way through the complexities of what leaving meant, but now realise that it cannot be done without causing harm to the population.

 

Leo Varadkar has had to explain to Trump that they don't actually want to have a wall between north and south as between Mexico and the US. Trump says he knows that everything works fine currently, and feels sure that it will work out as people in the UK are working very hard to find a solution.

 

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Of course - but that's why they should have signed the damn thing. There's nothing that couldn't be renegotiated in the context of a trade deal but it was the Uber Brexit crowd that were too stupid to realise. I have said on here many times that no deal is not the card to play now but it might be when we hit trade negotiations. We cannot ever have a deal as good as the one we have inside the EU but the die has been cast so let's look at what's best.
I personally want to keep as many partnerships and joint collaborative programmes as we can because that's so important.

 

I have been watching comments from various contenders in the leadership battle, and just wonder if BoJo has worked out what could happen. He is talking about the party being wiped out without a Brexit, yet he knows that Parliament is not going to agree to the withdrawal agreement. He goes on and seems to realise that a no deal departure will not work either as there are Tories prepared to bring down the government rather than see that happen. If he achieved his goal he would do whatever to keep his feet under the No.10 table, and as he blows with the wind could say that another referendum was the only way out. He wouldn't dare go for the other option of another election. Hammond said quite clearly on Newsnight that the chances of leaving at the end of October were almost nil for various reasons that he described. Gove has been talking about the end of 2020, and Hancock doesn't seem too bothered when we do leave. My best guess is that if BoJo got the job he would follow the May idea of can kicking, but it changes daily.