Off Topic UK / EU Future

I know you are desperate as everything forecast is coming home to roost, but do you actually know what your link is talking about? This is about one small specific part of the UK economy. The clue is in the title SH.

In April to June 2018, the UK economy was about 1.2% bigger than it was in the same period a year earlier. That’s relatively small, and growth was regularly over 2% in 2014 and 2015.

It’s also relatively small compared to the rest of the G7. Over the same period the US grew 2.9%, ahead of Germany and Canada on 1.9%. Only Italy grew slower at 1.15%. From being one of the strongest countries for growth before the referendum, it is now the weakest. Since June 2018 all of the signs show that the UK economy is slowing still further. Take a look at the OECD figures which show the dramatic decline.

 

Wrong again, Italy is in recession, Germany's growth is worse than the UK's. You really need to try to be more accurate. The UK's growth has been far superior to the EU's for many years. The EU had a slight improvement about a year ago but has now returned to sluggish growth.

After Brexit the UK will again outperform the EU as is the norm. Lagarde has pointed out desperate reforms are required in France and Italy if they are to redress the awful unemployment figures in those countries.

 

Your first paragraph is wrong as the EU's growth is better than the UK now. Only Italy is below. Investment into the EU countries is growing rapidly while the opposite is true for the UK.

Your second paragraph is based on wishful thinking, without any evidence to support it. I am not sure why you are now quoting something from Lagarde as you have constantly stated that everything she says is wrong. Get real SH. Your parties poll lead has disappeared again, and now more people would stay in the EU than leave under the terms of the current deal.

 

So you have just rubbished your previous statement that the UK was the worst.

Let's stick to facts. Germany had nil growth, Italy is in recession and the UK was third best of the main 5 countries. The UK had record investment last year, of course the EU has also increased it's incoming investment from a much lower base than the UK. The figures support my claim that the UK remains the best place to invest in Europe.

Most of the latest opinion polls put the Tories 5-7 points ahead. Don't put much store in the odd Observer poll. Corbyn only has to open his mouth for the polls to reflect the Tories normal superiority.

 

I am talking about the EU, which is not an individual country, and compared to the UK overall it is doing rather well, although it could be better if some mad governments such as the USA got their act together. You fail to address the fact that your claims are based on wishful thinking. You have nothing to prove that after Brexit the country will be better off. Where are all these trade deals that were supposed to be coming into force in a few weeks time? The government admits that they will not be in place, yet you still seem to think that this party of yours knows what it is doing. They are a shambles, and yet you still huff and puff believing that the rump of your party is in control.

 

The average growth of the EU is the same as the UKs for the last quarter. Trump will announce extra tariffs on EU goods once the UK leaves the EU. My claims are based on facts which you seem unable to grasp, I suppose the truth does not actually fit in with your project fear fairy stories.

Thankfully the government is not filled with people with defeatist attitudes like yours.

 

I just love that last statement! Make up your mind where you position yourself... You shift at will to big up your divisive and partisan posts..

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Yes.. well put the Tory party is at the the thrall of right wing extremists. Isn't that similar to the rhetoric used by the Tory media against the Labour Party.

Most of the electorate and I see most people here are mightily fed up with what is going on in our so called Great Parliament...

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British head is Airbus talking about a catastrophe if there is a no deal... And plans in place to move business overseas have been made...

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"Despite 18 months of talks, Japan and the UK have failed to make significant breakthroughs on a new trade deal.

The differences of position, which the Hunt/Fox letter acknowledges as “challenging issues”, centre around Japan’s refusal to accept a simple “cut and paste” of the terms of the EU-Japan agreement ratified last year.

Instead, its officials have been told to negotiate as they would any other trade accord, and to seek better terms from the UK than Japan won through its long haggle with the much larger EU."

What we are seeing is the forecasts coming true. Japan doesn't need to worry about the UK providing a gateway into Europe now that it has its own deal with the EU. Instead it can dictate terms for the very small market that the UK has in comparison, and take time over it. With China calling off trade discussions with the UK after Private Pike sounded off, and Australia saying it doesn't want the UK in the Asian trade pact, things are not going too well.

 

Honda to close the Swindon car plant from 2022 and move all of the production to Japan where it can be sure that they can move their cars into the EU with ease. Sad for the 3,500 people working there and double that number in the supply chain. Despite the bribes that the government was offering the companies that were attracted to the UK under Thatcher, they are getting on with their job of making a profit, something that Brexit has thrown into doubt. With Japan now putting the talks with the UK into the slow lane, expect this to become a common sad story.

 

Probably very little to do with Brexit. More like exchange rates and centralised production. Hyundai are doing extremely well with most of their production in Korea, US and India. They have avoided Europe so far.
Unlike many European countries there is a good chance these people will find alternative employment without too much trouble. The UK is excellent at creating jobs.

 

This is bad news.. And as we will here tomorrow directly linked to Brexit...

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Multi national companies move locations for several reasons. The EU is trying its hardest to spoil the advantage Ireland currently enjoys hosting some of these companies using low corporation tax as an incentive. If the manage to take this away from Ireland it might as well leave the EU.

 

With Airbus stopping production of their jumbo airliner, they will now have the space to manufacture the wings in Toulouse. They have given very strong indications that they cannot manage without a deal that replicates what already exists, so expect them to move out of the UK shortly. The car manufacturers and companies like Airbus provide well paid good employment. Working in yet another coffee shop for a few hours each week doesn't compare.

 

The French have been after the wing business for years. When I lived in Levignac near the Airbus factory they had to cut all the plane trees down to allow the lorries with the wings on to get through the village. The different nationalities that worked for Airbus all got on well with each other, the only exception was unfortunately the French. They also did not like the fact that all business was done using the English language.

Unlike France the UK is business friendly so thousands of new businesses evolve and soak up the unemployed. I met many graduates in France working for McDonalds/ fast foods outlets on zero hours contracts, often with their shifts well spaced apart.

 

Remind us when you left France, because a friend of mine works for Airbus in Toulouse currently, speaks good French and English at work, and is currently adding some German to his skills.

Which would you rather have? People in well paid jobs, contributing through their tax and NI, or a person on minimum wages for a few hours a week claiming benefits to make their money up. And no you didn't meet people on zero hours contracts, because they are not legal here.

 

My daughter went to Airbus's school in Toulouse, the IST. I met scores of other parents who worked for Airbus and ancillary businesses, French, Spanish German etc. They all told the same story about their French colleagues.
French employers are extremely reluctant to take on staff because of the overbearing employment conditions, until this is changed unemployment in France will remain high.

Whatever they called it there were many young people on flexible work arrangements often with separated shifts in a single day. Better than nothing I suppose.

 

How long ago was this ?

 

We left Toulouse in 2004