Off Topic UK / EU Future

Sir Oliver Letwin stated in the debate, that if there were to be no deal, and the country descended into chaos, as it would, people would not be blaming the members sat on the opposition benches, but those on the government side. I said that this is a Tory Brexit, and that is how it will be seen. He took the same view that I have that it could see the current government out of power for a decade. It has been agreed that the no deal option is off the agenda, although I suspect that the ERG would soon turn from supporting the government if they feel that the PM comes back with nothing. In fact they are already saying just that.

 

This whole issue just pushes any meaningfull discussions back another 2 weeks Frenchie. It has all become derailed due to the fact that our 2 main parties are still fighting their private war with each other at the expense of the country. I've heard it said that we are facing our worst crisis since World War 2 - but there is a difference. We had Churchill then who realized that unpopular decisions would have to be made, and that no one party should suffer as a result. So he formed a national wartime coalition. This is what we need now (without the war !) to dissolve all parties for all discussions involving Brexit - to vote on all possibilities, without use of party whips (if necessary using secret voting). In order to find exactly what still has a majority in Parliament (based on conscience not party membership) and then to put this back to the people - I can see no other solution to this. But this will not happen as long as we have a PM who wants to stifle real debate, and run down the clock simultaneously - and as long as we have a sizeable and loud minority who are content to just fall out of the EU by default. Against this scenario the people must make themselves heard - there is probably now a 60%-40% majority for remaining - they must make themselves heard and loudly. If necessary by demonstrations, passive civil disobediance, with even the possibility of a general strike on the horizon (the TUC have not ruled this out).

 

I agree that this is a further wasting of time, but yesterday May voted against her own deal and allowed herself to be pushed into it by the minority in her party. She is held a hostage by them simply because her first consideration is keeping her job, secondly keeping a deeply divided party together, and finally doing what is right for the country. Once again today she refused to answer any questions, reverting to her standard meaningless mantra even when they were asking for genuine information. Corbyn will meet her at 1500 GMT, but I cannot see what good it will do. She has mocked him for not meeting her before, but no matter who they are, business leaders, party leaders or union reps, they all leave the meetings saying she does not listen to a word they say, it is all a PR operation.
The only way forward that I can see is for a form of a customs union, and some single market access to be discussed with the EU which I think they would be open to, but it would require her to do another U turn and tear up some more red lines. This could then open the way to extend article 50. She will have to face down her minority, but might well get support from across the chamber if she follows such a course.

 

A High Court judge has ruled that Barclays can shift assets worth €190bn to its Irish division as it “cannot wait any longer” amid continuing political uncertainty. The plans were drawn up by Barclays in case of a no-deal scenario which would see it losing “passporting” rights that allow them to provide services across Europe. It is now preparing to activate that contingency plan. The judgement, which was published yesterday, says: “Due to the continuing uncertainty over whether there might be a ‘no-deal’ Brexit, the Barclays group has determined that it cannot wait any longer to implement the scheme. It comes as the boss of the CBI @cbicarolyn warned: "until MPs can agree a solution, the threat of no deal will continue to drain money from the UK."

Just more project fear.

 

"The republic could remain in the EU but leave its customs union, agreeing instead a common commercial policy including matching tariffs with the UK". The thoughts of Nick Timothy, Theresa May’s former co-chief of staff.
So this is a magical solution to the current crisis? It strikes me as sheer arrogance to think that Ireland should change what it wants, that is be a full member of the EU, to accommodate a UK government that has got itself into the largest mess since Suez.

 

Looks more like wishful thinking, along the lines of 'the EU is falling apart anyway' and 'they need us more than we need them'.

The sad thing is these people actually think this might work...

 

Sheer arrogance has been the defining factor of all the Governments negotiations with the EU. Frenchie. The problem with the underlying reasons for Brexit are that you have 2 sorts of nostalgia which are fuelling it - the one which dreams of the old empire, and the other which dreams of lost communities (ie. the good old days when we were all miners and steel workers) 2 nostalgias which are incompatible with each other. You have the far right (by that I mean the neo liberalists like Rees Mogg who want to create a bargain basement country which is attractive for the World to step in) and, at the other end of the extreme George Galloway and Arthur Scargill (and also the SWP) who have completely different reasons for supporting Brexit. Take them to their promised land and their temporary alliances are gone. When have the likes of Rees Mogg, Bojo, or Farage taken any interest in the 'English working class' up till now ? Once Brexit has happened then the real chasm will emerge because there are such widely different expectations of the way post Brexit Britain will develop, and these cannot all be satisfied. A post Brexit Corbyn led Britain would look very different from a Rees Mogg led one.

 

Yes a Corbyn led Britain would look different, but would it look better? I am afraid that he is just as incompetent as the PM. The country is ill served at present by two leaders with their own agendas. The PM is frightened to death of her right wing loonies, and will do anything to stay in No 10, and Corbyn still believes only his left wing views are going to find favour with the voters. You try to distinguish between Scargill and Corbyn, but to most people I think they are seen as coming out of the same eggshell.
Clearly there are many living in the past. I quote here from an article in the Spectator that rather proves the point.

"People used to know how to store things to mitigate the problem: apples would be carefully laid out on straw-strewn shelves. We ate lots of root vegetables and not much greenery. If ever you saw a strawberry out of season it came, for some reason, from Israel. Perhaps it is time for a Brexit recipe book, like those comforting wartime rationing ones full of bright ideas for dull things. In our part of the south coast we have racier ideas. We have a centuries-old tradition of smuggling (‘brandy for the parson, baccy for the clerk’), and are ready to set out in our little ships to Dunkirk or wherever and bring back luscious black-market lettuces and French beans, oranges and lemons. Our Sussex and Kent smugglers used to be known as ‘free traders’, which is interesting and — if we have to sneak over an EU tariff wall — entirely appropriate for today."

Yes I remember the days of salted beans and stored apples past their best and ration books. Today I find most of the things I don't have because of the weather in the supermarket, and nearly all of it comes from within the EU. I don't want salted beans anymore, I know there is a better life.

From the ex-pats I speak to no one wants either Corbyn or May, but we realise that there is no way that we can remove them. It can only happen from within the parties, and they are both hoping to have power, with the exception of members from both side of the house who want to put the country first.

 

I would distinguish between Corbyn and Scargill Frenchie, very much so. The levels of nationalization found in Corbyn's programme are no more radical than would be normal in countries like Sweden, Denmark, Germany etc. countries which are far from being called 'Socialist'. Scargill, by contrast, labels himself as a Stalinist. Decentralization is a major theme for Corbyn, and Britain is very much in need of this - for too long power has been over centralized on Westminster, and, since the 80s, too much economic power has been centred on London and the South East, so that the rest of the country is hardly necessary. Is there any country in the West which is as centralized as the UK. is ? Apparently nearly 75% of public spending comes directly from Westminster - the comparitive total for central government spending in Germany is only 30% Even the regions of much smaller countries such as the Netherlands and Switzerland, have far greater autonomy than our regions - North Rhine Westphalia has more autonomy than Scotland does. Corbyn plans to work against that, and it is much needed. There are other areas in which I am not a fan of his - he is against PR, although that is also badly needed in the UK. However, his performance on Brexit has been abysmal - and if he cannot work up any enthusiasm for what is the most serious problem facing Britain today (even if that enthusiasm is pretent) then he is not Prime Minister material.

 

I understand where you are coming from entirely cologne, but the press and others who comment suggest that he is a Stalinist. He does little to show that he is not that far to the left. He promised that it would become a member led party, but it looks as if when the members disagree with him, then he ignores them. The last Labour leader who was as radical was Michael Foot and he turned out to be a disaster. The social democrats that I would describe Blair and the party he led, showed that with less radical policies you could win elections.
I have loads of information on central government grants from experience, but if you wish to change that, at the same time as you allow local government to increase revenue locally, central government has to reduce its tax take. The UK government from what I see is not in that position, and the way it is throwing money around at present will not make matters better for a long time.

 

*sigh*

Another week, another shady story emerges about Leave.EU

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...-data-breaches-information-commissioner-audit

 

Not one person has managed to give a definite tangible benefit that we will all see on the day we leave the EU. But they won so...

 

FISH!!!!

 

Ah yes - silly me I guess one good thing has been realising how many dual marine biologists and fisheries economists are in the leave camp. There appear to be a couple of million at least....

 

Nissan expected to cancel the plans for new investment to build a new model in Sunderland. It cannot be a surprise as due to this incompetent government no one has a clue what is going on.

 

With my son in law this weekend who is national sales manager of a Company which owns several high St brands and is very much a British company.. They are now going to open a European distribution centre and reduce operations in the UK.. No BS at all.. Just fact.. UK jobs will go as a result...

I said this when the Brexit vote was one and was criticised then... Well it is now happening

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Project fear predicted the loss of 500,000 jobs, 2 million have been created. You must work much harder on the doom & gloom. The UK is excellent at attracting foreign investment and creating jobs. It is those European countries that struggle in these areas that should be more worried about a no deal Brexit.

 

You should return to your first love the Daily Express, where even those who comment while wearing blinkers are beginning to see the truth. Thatcher attracted companies to invest in the UK on the basis that it was a good place to do so, but most importantly provided a gateway into Europe. Your choice is to close that gateway. Japan now has a trade agreement with the EU that came into effect yesterday. They don't need the UK anymore. They have been warning since the referendum that unless the existing arrangements were maintained they would have little choice but to stop investment, and move away. This is why Nissan do not need to invest anymore.

 

Yorkie was talking to OFH and not you. So mind your own business.

 

SH has a daily quota of gammony soundbites to post, he's even posting from his holiday