Off Topic UK / EU Future

OFH you forgot to mention France's much higher national debt and of course the high unemployment rate twice that of the UK. Now Macron has capitulated to the rioters the promised extra tax cuts will only cause the national debt to skyrocket. This will only lead to higher taxes in future.

 

As I have said, if you wish to discuss France, it's economic policies, the way that it arrives at it's unemployment figures, the reasons why both left and right political parties have been rejected, why people are furious that the far left and right have taken over a peaceful protest, then I will be happy to provide you with some reading matter from inside the country, but not on this thread.

 

It may be valid to discuss the problems of other EU. countries on here SH. however it is just as valid to look at the world outside. The World outside is full of characters like Trump, Netanyahu, Erdogan, Putin etc. not to mention new developments in Brazil and China, or Islamic State. Is that 'other World' where you want to be ? Because Europe's problems are mild by comparison. You talk about a rise of the far right in some EU. countries, ignoring that the same form of reborn tribalism is happening Worldwide. This may well be a reaction against globalisation - whether by Ukip, the AfD or by Islamic State. If it is a reaction against globalisation then it is also a reaction against global capitalism - so can we really call it right wing ? You also ignore the fact that, because of Britain's curious political system, the extremes are often found hiding within the major big parties whereas in other countries they would be 'out in the open' in smaller ones. If Mareen Le Pen were British she would be skulking in the Tory Party somewhere dreaming of taking it over.

 

Yes... there is a separate France thread

 

All well and good but where's the Lithuania one?!

 

Are you joking?

You cannot have a UK/EU future thread without detailing what is happening in each area and how that affects any negotiations. The news from France has been broadcast worldwide recently. The strutting peacock, the Macron boy, has had his reputation ruined on the world stage and a final nail in his administration coffin at home. His downfall will undoubtedly play a part in any Brexit negotiation. It is also important to highlight the ongoing problems in Italy, Hungary Poland, and the inability for even Sweden to form government. The rise of the extreme far right in France, Italy Germany etc is worrying and can be linked to EU policies on immigration. Merkel, who's falling popularity is only matched by Macron's, is now paying the price for her crass, selfish decision to arbitrarily decide the EU's immigration policy.

I can understand your desire to block many instances which put the EU in a bad light at this time but this is meant to be a forum for Christ sake.

 

It has been suggested that if a second referendum is called for remaining in the EU would not be one of options. That would be funny.

 

I would draw your attention to post 3463. If it is legitimate to talk about internal problems of the EU. then it is also valid to write about the big World outside, which also has its fair share of problems. The EU. does not have a Trump, or a Putin, or an Erdogan, or a Netanyahu, or a Kim Jung and that is cause to celebrate. The big bad World outside does look very bleak at the moment - is that where you want to go ? Whatever problems the EU. has, its regional unemployment, the emergence of some parties called far right - all these are miniscule when compared to problems found in the rest of the World.

 

So now that the question of article 50 has been resolved by the ECJ, we can see that every country is in fact sovereign when it comes to leaving. This is a problem for the EU as much as the UK, as a state can invoke the article, then rescind it at a much later date. Why the UK government keeps wasting money going to the courts is another question, but it does show that under EU law the small man has a much greater degree of protection.

 

It is not me trying to limit unpalatable information. Non EU countries of course have an affect on the future UK/EU relationship so are valid contents.

 

How the current backstop is worded could prevent the UK from leaving an arrangement with the EU. This is simply why MPs from all parties dismiss this as unworkable. As May previously said no PM could sign up to such a deal!!

 

May is saying that this is a good deal, not that it is unacceptable. Brexiteer Gove is saying that he had managed to persuade some Tory MPs to back the deal with his arguments about the backstop. It seems that government and MPs are now faced with having to accept something that no one likes, or agree that the whole thing is now dead in the water as the people have seen what is entailed and have changed their minds.

 

Just a comment from an International law expert.

The court also goes out of its way to stress that the unilateral ability to withdraw serves to protect the right of the individual citizen.

That looks to me like a clear rebuff to the government that wants to remove the rights of the individual.

 

There is absolutely no chance this government would ignore the will of the people as defined in the 2016 referendum. The above is purely wishful thinking on your desperate part.

 

All this stuff about 'The Macron Boy' ? I think if the truth were known your biggest problem with Macron is just that he is young - also slim, and does not have gravy stains on his shirt You are, perhaps, jealous ! He speaks with a certain Gallic charm, which works wonders with Angela Merkel (she doesn't get this in Germany !) - which perhaps only the salty sea dog image of Jeremy Corbyn could equal. But his biggest crime is in being young - thus being a major provocation for all Tories.

You will be pleased to know that Merkel will only be there for the next 2 years, and is no longer the head of her party. The new leader of the CDU - Annegrit Kramp-Karrenbauer (try saying that when you're drunk) could well be the next Chancellor, which will be a nightmare for most political commentators. This can be shortened to AKK - but this also stands for Allgemeine Krankenkasse, which is the biggest health insurance in Germany. So really she has no chance without a name change. Which leaves the way for the Greens at the next election here - bring it on !

 

The decision by the ECJ on article 50 really is a non story. The government has no intention of reneging on the democratic decision taken in 2016. To do otherwise would bring widespread demonstrations on the streets similar to those currently being endured in France.

Brexit means Brexit. One way or another democracy should and will be upheld. I agree with Adam Boulton's assessment. May will lose the vote, resign or be kicked out then an interim leader is installed until a Tory leadership election takes place later in 2019.

 

I have great sympathy for what the Macron boy is trying to do, many have tried but all failed to reform the over strict labour laws. His arrogance has been his downfall and when the French public branded him as 'out of touch with normal people' the die was set. His lack of any real political base is also a problem when things get tough.

The real problem is the French people who are unsophisticated when it comes to politics. They lack basic understanding of fiscal politics having been reared on their governments borrowing from a bottomless pit. Unemployment will not reduce and the nations already sky high debt mountain will just escalate leading to ever more horrendously high amounts being used to service the annual interest payments. This will obviously lead to diminishing social returns for individuals high tax payments. Macron has been defeated by the mob, they will not give in until he is removed from office. The vicious circle will just carry on to the detriment of the people of France. They really require a tough Thatcher type character to impose change, somebody needs to tell the delusional French public to grow up.

My stains from dinner are normally found on my jumpers, so nearly right

 

An interim leader would be a dead duck in parliament SH. which you know as well as I do - they would have no authority under the present circumstances. If the PM. continuously fails to get a majority on important issues in parliament then it is fully within the constitutional laws of the UK. for the Queen to step in and ask the leader of the opposition if he can get a majority on those same issues. The only direction which has a majority in parliament is a Norway style solution, with a second referendum as the second most popular solution.

 

No, an interim Tory leader which keeps the DUP on side is the best option. Obviously the Tory rebels, Soubry Grieve etc, may diminish the electoral advantage the Tories currently enjoy. It would be for their conscience if their extreme views took preference over the Tories continued governance or not.

 

Macron will appear on French tv tonight to admit his arrogance and announce more tax cuts to appease the national groundswell against his government. Meanwhile his popularity has slipped to a previously unheard of rate of 18%. Will this be enough to stop the rot? Has he taken advice from his ex-mate Trump whose personal popularity has risen to 44%?