Tuesday 9th Daily Thread

[NassauBoard]

2.00 Split Rock (NAP)

This horse is by Shamardal, out of a classy mare who has foaled a good few decent horses, and whilst the colt will want further in time, I think he will be good enough to win this on debut. Shamardal has a very good strike rate as a sire on the fibresand (over 20% and that can't be said of any of the other sires) and I think this horse will stay strongly on this deep surface and pick them off with a shade of ease. He could be the best horse we have seen as a juvenile this season.


4.05 Glenreef (NB)

Another Mark Johnston horse, and another one who should relish the surface, this one won a fair maiden last time and comes here off what looks a viable mark. The top horse in the handicap is from a sire who hasn't had a winner on the surface, whilst the second in the weights is a quirky so and so if his last run is anything to go by. Glenreef should go from the front and string this small field out like the washing. A confident selection

4.15 Spanish Duke

A horse many on here have followed for some time, and now that he is with the in form Ellison, I think we are going to see him improve his strike rate. He has won off higher marks in the past, and conditions look suitable here for a good run on seasonal reappearance. "Brian Ellison, trainer: “He’s got a lot of ability and we’ve spent time trying to make him settle better. He’s been working well but he’ll come on for the run.”"



Good luck one and all.

 

[King Shergar]

Good luck Nass, especially with Spanish Duke, who I also fancy, and will be backing!

The Shoo in tommorow for me though is MOJOLIKA in the 2.50 Carlisle. This fella ticks all the boxes for me, course and distance winner, his trainer Tim Easterby is in good form, he's won on good ground, and he won with a fair bit in hand last time. He's got a 7 pound rise but I still think he is well ahead of the handicapper off 108

 

[ROTO]

Spanish Duke is a horse I'll be following very closely this year Nass but not having a bet for tomorrow. I think he'll use this as a prep for the Epsom contest he won back in 2011 at the end of the month and I'll be very, very keen if that is the route he takes.

 

[Bostonbob]

Weren't United poor yesterday. Young and Welbeck have scored two league goals between them this season. Kind of begs the question how they get into the starting 11?

PSG are welcome to Rooney on this seasons form.

RVP looks injured to me.

 

[Bostonbob]

I was interested in Dolatula but not at odds on.

 

[King Shergar]

Weren't United poor yesterday. Young and Welbeck have scored two league goals between them this season. Kind of begs the question how they get into the starting 11?

PSG are welcome to Rooney on this seasons form.

RVP looks injured to me.

Yes very poor, we haven't played a decent game since the Real Madrid game. I think he played Welbeck out wide because the other wingers are so badly out of form, like Nani and Valencia. Welbeck even though he doesn't score many, has started to grow on me because he works so hard, and he is very skilful, I think he still needs more time.

Be fair apart from the free kick RVP was no better than Rooney, and has been very poor since the turn of the year

 

[Sir Barney Chuckles]

Morning, to the forum faithful. My betting boots are at the cobblers right now so it’s a ‘no bet’ day for one today.

There’s a Listed doings at Nottingham tomorrow (3.40) though and I see that none other than the forum’s favourite trainer has popped one in it – Earth Amber who makes his debut for Mr Henderson after 3 runs across the Channel for old boy Alain De Royer-Dupre. The Pipe’s have also put the beast that they had entered in the Champion Hurdle for so long and are hoping to turn into a stallion, Flying Cross, in it. To make it a real NH affair Alan King has also declared the decent juvenile hurdler, Handazan. Sporting Life forecast them 14/1, 6/1 and 12/1 respectively. Thoughts on this fascinating race, please.

Good luck if you do wager, troops.

 

[rainbowview]

Lucky 15 for me today

Mcconnell 5.05 Southwell 3/1
Flashlight 3.10 Pontefract 7/4
Zaplamation 3.40 Pontefract 9/2
Indevan 7.45 Gowran 7/4

 

[Bluesky9]

I feel there is a strong each-way bet in the first at Ponty today and have had a bigger bet than I would usually consider at such a price.

Pontefract 2.10
Piceno 25-1
This horse has a few things going for it as a selection today and whilst it is a very difficult race and not one that you could bet with extreme confidence I feel the price is so far mis-judged that it should be taken advantage of. The piece of form is it's race before it's last at Doncaster's opening fixture. The race was won very nicely by Gouray Girl but the second Fieldgunner Kirkup has since won another grade 4 and Classic Colouri has won a Claimer, Piceno was backed in from 10's to 7's and ran well without ever looking like winning.

What I cannot see regarding today is why he is 25-1. He dropping back in class to run in a grade 5, comes out of a race where the form is looking good, and to top it off Tom Queally is driving to Pontefract for one ride. I am not suggesting he will definitely win or has anything in hand with the handicapper or anything silly like that, but he is definitely race fit (where as 9 of these are having their first run) and will not mind the going, and when all of this is considered this horse should not be 25-1 paying four places.

Good luck

 

[Reebok]

Well done Nass at Southwell, and nice place Blue. A bit unlucky in running but don't think he'd have won

 

[NassauBoard]

Well done Nass at Southwell, and nice place Blue. A bit unlucky in running but don't think he'd have won

Cheers, nice when a bit of research pays off. Nice performance by the horse over a trip that did look short enough for him.

 

[Bluesky9]

Thanks Reebs - I do agree he was unlucky in the run but he would simply have been closer to the winner rather than beat him.

Happy enough with the place on that run

 

[SaveTheHumans]

Cheers, nice when a bit of research pays off. Nice performance by the horse over a trip that did look short enough for him.

Nass do you still do the blog on Maidens? Remeber following it few year back and it proved quite successful. Also i didnt mean to dislike post, my smartphone isnt as smart as it claims or i've got fat thumbs!

 

[NassauBoard]

Nass do you still do the blog on Maidens? Remeber following it few year back and it proved quite successful. Also i didnt mean to dislike post, my smartphone isnt as smart as it claims or i've got fat thumbs!

Nope, basically don't have time and drive to do it.

 

[King Shergar]

The Shoo in tommorow for me though is MOJOLIKA in the 2.50 Carlisle. This fella ticks all the boxes for me, course and distance winner, his trainer Tim Easterby is in good form, he's won on good ground, and he won with a fair bit in hand last time. He's got a 7 pound rise but I still think he is well ahead of the handicapper off 108

The Shoo in bolts up, only 15/8 but a winners a winner

 

[SaveTheHumans]

Nope, basically don't have time and drive to do it.

Yeah it is very time consuming i imagine, good reads though. Anyway keep up the good work.

Ryan Mania is getting some media atttention it must be weird going from relatively unknown to everyone now wanting a piece of him, Goodluck to him though. Good to see him Safe and well after the fall.

 

[Bluesky9]

Hidden Justice looks on a very nice mark for the next at Pontefract.

 

[SaveTheHumans]

The Shoo in bolts up, only 15/8 but a winners a winner

You could have got 2/1

 

[SaveTheHumans]

Gold Bullet 5:45 Gowran 9/2 BOG. Won very easily lto , sure to out in a bold show today with man of the moment Bryan Cooper on board.

 

[ROTO]

Can't let 4.25 Carlisle Etxalar 5/1 go unbacked at his current price which is much bigger than I was expecting to see. Finally cashed in on his continuously falling handicap mark when scoring comfortably last month over C+D. Has been raised 11lb for that effort but is still well handicapped on old form and now he has got his confidence back up I think he'll take quite a bit of beating.