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Daily Racing Thread Tuesday 28th. July 2020

Discussion in 'Horse Racing' started by attivo, Jul 27, 2020.

  1. Saf

    Saf Not606 Godfather+NOT606 Poster of the year 2023

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    I rarely bet on the flat but I can get the first two TV races in before I have to be at the groomers with my little mate.

    EW double
    Sucellus
    Painless Potter
     
    #21
  2. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    Right, first and foremost I hate betting at Glorious Goodwood, so expect the following horses to get impeded in their runs and look unlucky when beaten in fifth or sixth.

    1:10 - Vividly - She was weak in the market on her return run at Ascot and I don't think she was seen to her best. She was held up and when push came to shove, she stayed on quite takingly without looking like getting involved in the finish. She is much stronger in the market today, which suggests that she was prepping for this race at Ascot and I think we should see her improve a bundle from that run. She has course winning form and 3 year olds have won the last four runnings of this race.

    1:45 - Tinendali - This race has a strong link with the John Smith's Cup, with plenty of horses running very well in this heat after going to York. We have also had previous winners of this run in the John Smith's Cup previously (Fire Fighting & Mount Logan in recent past). Tinendali ran an eyecatching race at York, running widest and being out of his ground when they came into the straight. He then picked up takingly without looking like getting involved in the finish, partly because of the wide run and being held up, but also because he got impeded in his run. Today I am hoping he comes wide in the straight, and I think hold up horses can be upgraded from York. He has to overturn form with Fifth Position but I am hoping that is possible here.

    3:45 - Celsius - I really wanted to be against this horse, he has an ungainly way of running in his races and I know he is likely to find trouble in the run. However it does look like this race is going to be set up perfectly for him, and he is one of very few in here who is likely to be better than his current mark. The fact the horse has won at the course is a positive for me and he has a high draw which should also suit. Atzeni needs to be either very good here or very lucky in the run. Either way would do for me!!

    4:55 - Au Claire De Lune - A straightforward filly who I think is showing improvement from run to run. She ran very well at Leicester last time out and whilst up in the handicap by 6lbs for that close second, I think she can defy that and prove too tough to pass for this field. I think the three year olds here have the advantage and this daughter of Sea The Stars has much more potential than most in here.


    That is my lucky 15 for the day. Good luck all!
     
    #22
  3. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Have you seen my form recently?
    Good luck with your bet!
     
    #23
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  4. LG

    LG Well-Known Member

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    I'm well aware of your recent form stick but I'm still well in profit with you I'm hanging in for the next run!<cheers>
     
    #24
    stick likes this.
  5. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    The owner was working his way through the Kama Sutra but only got that far because the Sixth Position involved a goat and Philip Schofield.
     
    #25
  6. QuarterMoonII

    QuarterMoonII Economist

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    Gloriously quiet Goodwood starts with a trappy handicap where handicap debutant Wasaayef is likely to go off favourite for the all-conquering Gosden yard. As I never back first time in a handicap, this looks one to oppose. Vividly has won at this track and posted a respectable fifth in a competitive Ascot handicap last time where Queen Of Silca was sixth after leading inside the distance but being weighed down by my money! The Haggas yard is flying at the moment and Tomorrow’s Dream was runner-up at Newbury after being given a strange ride by Hollie Doyle, who is replaced today by her partner Tom Marquand; but has to entire calculations given the form she is in. ANGEL POWER will need to progress having been raised 5lb for her neck defeat on handicap debut at Haydock after an easy Chelmsford win but clearly is going the right direction after just three career starts. This could be a good day for the Varian yard with several fancied runners.

    In the Vintage Stakes, son of Found Battleground will be a short-priced favourite because of his pedigree and where he lives but I do not expect him to have it all his own way on a quicker track and less testing conditions. Arguably Devious Company is the form pick on his Group 2 second at the July meeting (King Zain behind that day) in a race that is working out really well having thrown up a couple of winners.

    The Lennox Stakes looks like it might be a case of horses for courses. Sir Dancealot won this last year but subsequently only won a five-runner Park Stakes and was behind Glorious Journey (winner) and Safe Voyage (third) in the Hungerford. The only three year old in the field is Mill Reef winner Pierre Lapin but he never went a yard in the Commonwealth Cup and has it all to prove after looking so promising at Newbury. Duke Of Hazzard clearly likes this track and comes here after a creditable third to Mohaather at Ascot but does he want the drop back to a trip where he won his maiden two years ago? The obvious favourite is Space Blues, runner-up in the Jersey (Duke Of Hazzard and Marie’s Diamond behind) and the Prix Jean Prat (Graignes behind) last year but closely matched with his stablemate D’bai on their running in a Longchamp Group 3.

    The Goodwood Cup is a match to all intents and purposes. Gold Cup winner Stradivarius arguably put up a career-best performance that day and there is no real reason to expect runner-up Nayef Road to bridge the ten length gap over this shorter distance. This is really a case of how good is the Irish Derby winner Santiago, receiving more than a stone from his older rival. I expect him to have a rear view of Dettori collecting a fourth Cup on the champion stayer as the Irish Derby was a very moderate race.
     
    #26
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  7. hammyend

    hammyend Member

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    Pierre Lapin my give space blues something to think about 16/1 e.w
     
    #27
  8. NDS

    NDS Well-Known Member

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    I've backed your first one also....not looking good for the double now
     
    #28
  9. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Mark Johnston horse at 40/1 in a Goodwood handicap, hmmmmmm
     
    #29
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  10. mallafets123

    mallafets123 Well-Known Member

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    Tinandalli here
    but Fifth Position ive a gut feeling after backing lto.
     
    #30

  11. NassauBoard

    NassauBoard Well-Known Member

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    No pace, front runner pays. How frustrating!!!
     
    #31
  12. stick

    stick Bumper King

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    Each way boooooommmmmm, only beaten by the stablemate
     
    #32
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  13. mallafets123

    mallafets123 Well-Known Member

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    I stole the ew on Sky Defender as well. Thievery.
     
    #33
    stick and LG like this.
  14. Steveo

    Steveo Well-Known Member

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    Battleground definitely the most impressive 2 year old so far this season

    10/1 for the Guineas next year
     
    #34
  15. Grendel

    Grendel Well-Known Member

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    I thought Santiago made heavy weather of winning the Irish Derby. For me his Vase win at Royal Ascot looked much better. The Irish Derby third Dawn Patrol has won since but he was 1/8 Fav in a maiden and he had to be driven out to win it. Dawn Patrol was upped to 107 on official ratings for his Irish Derby run but his Racing Post Rating for breaking his duck was just 84. Looking back to Dawn Patrol's second race, he had again run behind Irish Derby second Tiger Moth and he actually ran to a higher RPR on that occasion with a mark of 86. Looking at a sequence of 86, 110 and 84 from the Racing Post assessor looks suspicious, as the Irish Derby run just looks way high, It would have been one thing if Dawn Patrol had hacked up, never out of a canter, in his latest race but he was ridden vigourously when it was a case on ratings that the jockey should have been leaning back with a can of beer in one hand and Playboy magazine in the other.

    That leaves the question as to whether Santiago really ran to a new best mark of 115 on official figures? I didn't think so because he had little to spare over Tiger Moth and I am dubious about that colt being a 114 performer on the official figures. He took a massive leap after the Irish Derby and I would want to see him back that up first. His new rating would have seen him second in the Epsom Derby, ahead of the supposed leading lights in the O'Brien stable.

    On official figures Stradivarius is rated 125 and Santiago 115. That 10 lbs difference is offset by the younger horse getting 15 lbs in weight allowance. Had they met in August the allowance would have been lower at 13 lbs, so Stradivarius has a little extra to concede. In theory Santiago has 5 lbs to spare on adjusted ratings, so can he make that a winning advantage?

    I thought Santiago was tiring at the end of the Irish Derby but he had won over further at Royal Ascot when landing the 14F Queen's vase. That was a Grouo 2 contest but I am not convinced it is really that quality of contest and that it sits as an option for horses not fast enough, or talented enough for the Derby in a normal season. Such is the status with the 3YO colts this year, I was still impressed enough to back Santiago for the St Leger at 12/1 but this is a different challenge and at an extra 2F, so despite the weight concession I see no value in Santiago at the 7/4 odds.

    Nayef Road was no match for Stradivarius in the Gold Cup but this is half a mile shorter and he managed to beat the rest of the field by a fair margin. At 20/1 I had a SF for him to chase Stradivarius home and a fun win single in case the champ has an off day.
     
    #35
  16. LG

    LG Well-Known Member

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    Nice shout Steveo
     
    #36
  17. Archers Road

    Archers Road Urban Spaceman

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    Bookies getting a bit of a kicking today. Not by me, unfortunately, but still nice to see...
     
    #37
  18. Steveo

    Steveo Well-Known Member

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    Favourites day!
    Loving it!
     
    #38
  19. mallafets123

    mallafets123 Well-Known Member

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    Francesca Cumani on ITV after the race decides to tell the viewers that Appleby told her before racing Space Blues was his best chance of the week.
     
    #39
  20. Grecian Mick

    Grecian Mick Well-Known Member

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    Pretty much what I said last night Steveo, just a shame I've picked most of the wrong ones :(
     
    #40

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