Daily Racing Thread Tuesday 27th. Dec. 2016

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attivo

attivo

Well-Known Member
Jan 23, 2014
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Tuesday's Meetings

Limerick
N/H 7 Races 12:00-3:20p.m.
Leopardstown
N/H 7 Races 12:15-3:35p.m.
Chepstow
N/H 7 Races 12:20-3:50p.m.
Kempton Park
N/H 6 Races 12:40-3:30p.m.
Wetherby
N/H 6 Races 12:55-3:35p.m.
Wolverhampton
A/W 8 Races 1:05-5:00p.m.

Racecards
At The Races
Racing Post
Sporting Life

Good Luck <ok>
 
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Myself and me old mate Exotic Dancer are off to Ltown tomo so any tips/fancies are most welcome.Bit of word floating about for Colms Dream in the PP Chase(PP paying top six)so I took 20s Ew yday.He hasn't run since April after finishing a respectable second to Irish Calvier at Punchy.Hopefully the yard will have well tuned in for this.Rouge Trader looks dangerous for JP/BG so I've had a wee saver at 8s.
 
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Love that horse Ste...Colm's Dream that is. Have a great day there men. I might be up Wednesday myself all going well. Leopardstown is my favourite place to go racing. Cold crisp air, great atmosphere, friendly people and good racing action. Plus the smell of those hot whiskeys as you go through under the stand to watch the action...perfection <ok>
 
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Welsh National doesn't look as strong as earlier last week! Can't get away from Native river- although Hennessy winners don't have a good record in this race he is a class above the rest! 3/1 looks good
 
Welsh National Unioniste 20/1 down to a really workable mark and this looks the sort of race he'll be suited to. Nicholls thinks the better ground than usual at Chepstow is a bonus so hoping he runs well down to a really workable mark. He has some nice form in the book in the context of this race and is nicely- if not obviously well handicapped. Like his chances.

The Grade 1 juvenile hurdle at the same venue jumped out like mad at me. I really fancy Dino Velvet 14/1 to make a bold bid against that flashy Hobbs horse and its this time of year onwards that we start to see horses make strides forward in the juvenile Department and shake up the markets a little. I thought this horse was running really well on debut when falling behind the favourite, and he looked quite green that day. Won nicely next time and I think he has a nice chance in this for Alan King.
 
woolcombe-folly007 said:
Welsh National doesn't look as strong as earlier last week! Can't get away from Native river- although Hennessy winners don't have a good record in this race he is a class above the rest! 3/1 looks good
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Please explain how 3/1 looks good for a race like this. I was looking to get him beat at 6's two days ago. 3's had me spitting out my eggnog all over the laptop yesterday eve!
 
Dreamcatching
Sire De Grugy
Beltor
Defi Du Seuil

In the Welsh - Beg To Differ & Harry Topper
In the Paddy Power - Peoples Park & Sambremont
 
stick said:
Please explain how 3/1 looks good for a race like this. I was looking to get him beat at 6's two days ago. 3's had me spitting out my eggnog all over the laptop yesterday eve!
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Ok well look in the strength in depth of the field - it is no way near a side strong as it once looked with either horses not getting in or horses just not being declared. I too like you was trying to get him beat, but just can't see past him. He is running off the same mark as his Hennessy win and imo the step up in trip will see more inprovement- he is due to go up 8lbs I think it is and is only 2lb higher than when second at the festival over 4m which looks the strongest novice form of last year. He will definitely stay and more importantly- it won't be a slog as it has been most years which takes out a lot of the field. If the ground was on the heavy side I wouldn't be on him. Add in the fact the tizzards once again or you could argue still are on fire. Based on those points I think 3/1 is not that bad a price
 
woolcombe-folly007 said:
Ok well look in the strength in depth of the field - it is no way near a side strong as it once looked with either horses not getting in or horses just not being declared. I too like you was trying to get him beat, but just can't see past him. He is running off the same mark as his Hennessy win and imo the step up in trip will see more inprovement- he is due to go up 8lbs I think it is and is only 2lb higher than when second at the festival over 4m which looks the strongest novice form of last year. He will definitely stay and more importantly- it won't be a slog as it has been most years which takes out a lot of the field. If the ground was on the heavy side I wouldn't be on him. Add in the fact the tizzards once again or you could argue still are on fire. Based on those points I think 3/1 is not that bad a price
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Is he running off the same mark? The RP have him off the same mark but ATR have him down to carry a 4lb penalty in which case you would surely expect Caroles Destrier to turn the tables......
I agree that it is unlikely to be the slog it usually is, I cannot remember the last time this wasnt run on heavy, hosepipe ban will be coming soon. I just do not see any value at 3/1.
All that said, I have kicked myself regarding this horse on a number of occasions.
 
Penalties after November 20th, a winner of a chase 4lb; of 2 chases 7lb (no penalty to increase a horse's weight above 11st 12lb)

As Native River was due to carry 11st 12lb I think his penalty is waived. Poor that ATR and Sporting Life have him carrying a 4lb penalty!
 
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Captain Redbeard 2 35W -- the money has come suggesting that they are happy with him today - I know I put him up last time at Carlisle , where he finished fourth , but there was definite signs in that run and the stable has been in better form since .......
 
stick said:
Is he running off the same mark? The RP have him off the same mark but ATR have him down to carry a 4lb penalty in which case you would surely expect Caroles Destrier to turn the tables......
I agree that it is unlikely to be the slog it usually is, I cannot remember the last time this wasnt run on heavy, hosepipe ban will be coming soon. I just do not see any value at 3/1.
All that said, I have kicked myself regarding this horse on a number of occasions.
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I maybe wrong so apologies As far I can see he is running off 159 the same mark he ran off the Hennessy and is due to go up in future races the same as Carole Destrier is running off the same mark too. But even if he has gone up 4lbs I expect the trip up in distance to bring improvemt. As I said 3/1 is not a bad Price i wouldn't back him at much shorter but I just think with the field as it is I can't see anything beating him and hopefully you'll be trying to do drunken cartwheels trying to kick your self tonight after to much of that eggnog you spat out last nite <laugh>
 
woolcombe-folly007 said:
I maybe wrong so apologies As far I can see he is running off 159 the same mark he ran off the Hennessy and is due to go up in future races the same as Carole Destrier is running off the same mark too. But even if he has gone up 4lbs I expect the trip up in distance to bring improvemt. As I said 3/1 is not a bad Price i wouldn't back him at much shorter but I just think with the field as it is I can't see anything beating him and hopefully you'll be trying to do drunken cartwheels trying to kick your self tonight after to much of that eggnog you spat out last nite <laugh>
Click to expand...
I've just seen the rp site and they have him off the same mark 8lb well in
 
stick said:
Penalties after November 20th, a winner of a chase 4lb; of 2 chases 7lb (no penalty to increase a horse's weight above 11st 12lb)

As Native River was due to carry 11st 12lb I think his penalty is waived. Poor that ATR and Sporting Life have him carrying a 4lb penalty!
Click to expand...

It is carrying the penalty. It's entered off its old mark of 151 but is carrying 4lbs more (hence 1lb higher than Bishops Road). He is 8lbs well in on that basis.

I like Vicente today.
 
Just re-watched the King George. Firstly the time, 0.5 seconds under standard on good ground. Almost exactly the same time as Kauto Star's only victory in the race on good ground (2008, beating Albertas Run 8L). Secondly the manner - in the box seat all way round, jumping superbly and exuberantly, and not even ridden out by Tom Scudamore. The most impressive part of his race was after the 4th last, the acceleration off the bend putting 5 lengths between him and Cue Card and then allowed to saunter up the straight, not even hands and heels. Scudamore celebrating 20 yards before the finish line allowing the others to close - ridden out he could have won 20 lengths. I think Cue Card is a better horse with more cut in the ground, hence the bunch finish for second, but the winning time bears out the fact that this was a sensational performance.

My favourite thing about the horse is his slightly bowed head-carriage, not bowed in deference but looking supremely noble. Very beautiful animal.
 
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