Tuesday 24th July - Daily Thread

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B

Bucks

Member
Jun 2, 2011
536
15
18
One at a price for me tomorrow at Musselburgh is in the 5.00 Nadeen 16/1

Nadeen has won twice from four runs at Musselburgh and is 1/1 over C+D. He won off of a 11lb high mark last season (78) but runs tomorrow off of 67.

A big question mark is over his attitude now after refusing to race LTO but I think that is factored in to the 16/1 price, once again I will be having a good e/w on this one as he is to big a price imo.
 
4.20 Yarmouth PICABO 9/2

Won 5f handicap at Newmarket for Lucy Wadham in 2011. Best effort for new stable when keeping-on second in first-time hood at Sandown (5f) last time. Yard going well and much respected.

4.50 Yarmouth BAHRI SHEEN 18/1

Showed ability first 3 starts at 2 yrs. Lightly raced since but did show he retains ability when fourth in Lingfield maiden earlier this month



JOB DONE!!
 
I fancy a nice Peter Bowen double at Southwell today. In the 2.40 Sun Tzu can get back to winning ways off a mark of 117 (his last win came off this mark) against some pretty average looking opposition. Providing his recent outing at Uttoxeter has blown away the cobwebs I think he'll have too much for this lot today, yet he is the outsider of the field at a juicy 14/1. Also, the Racing Post kindly informs me that Tom O'Brien (Sun Tzu) has a strike rate of 43% when riding for owner L H & Mrs T Evans.

In the 3.10 Buachaill Alainn looks decently treated on handicap debut. He ran into a decent Rebecca Curtis novice last time out but a mark of 106 looks workable and he looks sure to run a big race at decent odds (currently 10/1).

Finally, remember the sound advice of that forum stalwart and all-round good egg Sir Barney Chuckles - always back horses named after Coronation Street characters. This has reaped great dividends in the past and Bet Lynch can keep the trend going in the 3.40 at Southwell. A forecast with the McCain runner may be a good security bet.

Best of luck everyone <ok>
 
I certainly did not love your tips yesterday, ROTO's failed to do the business also. The account however remains firmly in the black thanks to the great info that you have both posted in recent weeks. It is very much a time of transition now as the fast ground horses have to get a run under their girth to get up to peak fitness. I had an awful time of it last night following Hughsie at Windsor having missed out on his big priced winners at the w/e whilst joining the mud loving brigade at a music festival. At least those good old Stokies at Bet 365 paid for the tickets!

AP McCoy rides at S'well this pm and catches the last 2 at Bangor this evening, Shadow Dancer Picabo as put up by WLYT and 3:20 Yar, Divine Pamina on a handicap debut to fill a small win patent to recoup yesterdays losses. Good luck fellow 606's
 
Worth noting the forum's favourite trainer sends out the 2009 Royal Hunt Cup winner Forgotten Voice in the lucky last at Bangor tonight. He was subsequently rated 113 and stepped up to Group company but failed to win another race on the flat for Jeremy Noseda and has not seen a racetrack for 2 years. McCoy takes the ride and the main opposition looks to come from Don McCain's Sud Pacifique, who was also trained on the flat by Noseda. Despite the 2 year absence it will be disappointing if Forgotten Voice can't take this on his way to bigger and better things.
 
I've not had time to have too much of a look, but i think RAVI RIVER in the 3:30 at Musselburgh could have a good shout at a decent price, currently 10/1 but I would take SP if you aren't given BOG as I can see this being ignored in the market, as on face value it looks like a donkey, they are probably right. :tongue:

The trainer has had a right mess about with this one, trying it (unsuccessfully) over hurdles then over 7f since taking this horse on. This horse I think acts best over 11-12f. Didn't disgrace itself over 7f lto but didn't have the pace to keep on terms, kept on well at the end and will go better for its second run back on flat. Will enjoy the cut in the ground.

Edit: Actually may not drift in the market as much as i had hoped, has been mentioned in RP verdict

Edit: 4 NRs (6 in total) since this morning, why enter the horse into the race if you aren't going to run it?! :steam: Ground will have dried up, going will be good, what exactly are they hoping for? :emoticon-0121-angry
 
Morning Ladies and Gentlemen, another glorious but breezy day in the North East but nice enough to place my bets hop on my mountain bike and go outdoors in the beautiful Durham countryside.

Finished the evening with a lovely 20/1 shot Last Sovereign so heres hoping for a few more winners today, Lucky 15 and Singles:

Musselburgh

4.00 The Nifty Fox 6/4

Yarmouth

3.20 Virginia Galilei 5/2

Southwell

2.10 The Boss 4/1
4.10 Changing The Guard 3/1

Good luck for those who play today,
 
16:20 Yarmouth - Soap Wars

(Fitness to be taken on trust after layoff, but good chance in this heat).
 
&#8206;2.20 Yarmouth

Sound of Guns

Not backing this now as the idiots on Betfair ruined the price last night. Will have a play if she drifts to 5/2 or bigger.

I'm very, very bullish about this one and I'll be extremely surprised and disappointed if she doesn't go very close to landing this maiden for Ed Walker. This 2 year old filly has only had one start to date when a rather well backed debutant as she finished a 5.25L beaten 6th last month at Goodwood. From a wide draw, she shaped very well for a long way and showed good cruising speed to get up close to the pace after being settled in the rear before looking as if she got tired late on and she was given an easy enough time by Martin Lane. She's clearly going to come on an awful lot for that race and that Class 4 Maiden looks extremely hot race. The winner Momalorka ran a fantastic 3rd in the Weatherbys Super Spring going down by a neck. The 2nd Miss You Too won impressively by 4L on her only subsequent start. The 5th also won impressively on her only subsequent start whilst the 7th was only beaten by 0.5L on her only subsequent start. Given the form of this race, its clear it was an extremely promising debut effort for Sound of Guns and normal improvement should definitely see her extremely hard to beat in this race.

Looking through this race, the first notable thing is that the field is entirely absent of most of the big name trainers which demonstrates it shouldn't take an awful lot of winning. William Buick takes the ride on this filly and he looks an extremely eye catching booking given his record for Walker. In total, Buick has an extremely impressive 5-6 record for the trainer and the pairing have an undefeated 4-4 record this year and its clear that extremely talented Buick is the jockey Walker turns to when he fancies his horse. Bountybeamadam and Vestibule bring decent form to the table with official ratings of 75 and 74 respectively but I really think Sound of Guns is a fair bit better than this and will turn into a very useful horse. If building on her experience from an ok draw in stall 8, I think this filly could prove a cut above her rivals and if she doesn't get unlucky then I will be extremely shocked if she doesn't get very close to winning this.
 
My only fancy today was Sound Of Guns in the 14.20 Yarmouth. Forecast at 7/1 last night but no more than 2/1 on offer late last night. Now best priced 15/8

Ridden by Martin Lane, promising 5½L 6th of 13 to Momalorka in a Goodwood maiden last month. "Held up, headway over 2f out, ridden to chase leaders soon after, faded inside final furlong". Don't know anything about that jockey but W Buick is on today.

A filly by Acclamation, Europe's leading sire of 2yos in 2011 and sire of the potentially brilliant Harbour Watch, I think she should take this race.
 
Sorry ROTO. Didn't realise you had put this one up. I had mentioned it last night on my 10k Betting Experiment thread so I wasn't copying, honest.
 
Couldn't resist the 2s in the end ROTO.

Class above that lot. Won easily.

Cheers Red
 
ROTO said:
&#8206;2.20 Yarmouth

Sound of Guns

Not backing this now as the idiots on Betfair ruined the price last night. Will have a play if she drifts to 5/2 or bigger.

I'm very, very bullish about this one and I'll be extremely surprised and disappointed if she doesn't go very close to landing this maiden for Ed Walker. This 2 year old filly has only had one start to date when a rather well backed debutant as she finished a 5.25L beaten 6th last month at Goodwood. From a wide draw, she shaped very well for a long way and showed good cruising speed to get up close to the pace after being settled in the rear before looking as if she got tired late on and she was given an easy enough time by Martin Lane. She's clearly going to come on an awful lot for that race and that Class 4 Maiden looks extremely hot race. The winner Momalorka ran a fantastic 3rd in the Weatherbys Super Spring going down by a neck. The 2nd Miss You Too won impressively by 4L on her only subsequent start. The 5th also won impressively on her only subsequent start whilst the 7th was only beaten by 0.5L on her only subsequent start. Given the form of this race, its clear it was an extremely promising debut effort for Sound of Guns and normal improvement should definitely see her extremely hard to beat in this race.

Looking through this race, the first notable thing is that the field is entirely absent of most of the big name trainers which demonstrates it shouldn't take an awful lot of winning. William Buick takes the ride on this filly and he looks an extremely eye catching booking given his record for Walker. In total, Buick has an extremely impressive 5-6 record for the trainer and the pairing have an undefeated 4-4 record this year and its clear that extremely talented Buick is the jockey Walker turns to when he fancies his horse. Bountybeamadam and Vestibule bring decent form to the table with official ratings of 75 and 74 respectively but I really think Sound of Guns is a fair bit better than this and will turn into a very useful horse. If building on her experience from an ok draw in stall 8, I think this filly could prove a cut above her rivals and if she doesn't get unlucky then I will be extremely shocked if she doesn't get very close to winning this.
Click to expand...

That is a very talented filly. Green as grass, keen as **** and very impressive winner.
 
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