Daily Racing Thread Tuesday 22nd. September 2020

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SOLSTALLA 7/1 Warwick 2:55
Getaway Mag is understandably favourite after getting off the mark last February on handicap debut. Only a few pounds higher here and is quite conceivably thrown in. However, 5/2 is pretty skinny for a horse that hasnt run since February. The yard are hardly flying with one winner in the last fortnight and horses running to 44% of form.
Next in is SOLSTALLA. Its a while since she won, Oct 18 in fact but was partnered that day by todays pilot Page Fuller. She was running off 103 then and is now down to 96 so has an obvious chance at the weights. I cannot find an excuse for her last run, it needs forgiving but on here seasonal debut she was second beaten 13 lengths by Jamacho. Since that run Jamacho has seen his mark increase by a whopping 30lbs, he was very obviously a blot on the handicap that day. To precis I believe the favourite is worth taking on and makes the market in this race, SOLSTALLA is a very fair price.

Really nice bumper to end the card. A race to watch with notebook in hand.
 
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As its such a nice little bumper I thought we might have an old school preview;

5:15 Warwick

KAYARNAGH; Debut winner in a bumper at Stratford but as with so many failed to land a blow under a penalty at Fontwell when beaten 20 lengths with Terrefirma some way in front.

AURELIA D’OR; Went off at 9/2 when sixth in the same Fontwell race weakening when the race began in earnest. Hard to see her reversing the form of that race and the yard does not have an inspiring record in bumpers here.

COOL TARA; Has a nice enough pedigree with winners in the family but sold cheaply as a yearling and is probably best watched on debut.

CRACKIN ROSE; Lovely bumper pedigree being a full sister to Tara Rose and a half sister to Dalkingstown. Dam was also a winner over hurdles at 2 miles. One of the very best bumper yards these days and the bookie of Dickie is eyecatching. An obvious favourite.

DANCING DORIS; Sizeable gaps between runs suggest that all has not been straight forward and although a well held second on debut she did show signs of temperament. Weakened a long way out in second run in an all weather bumper and is readily passed over.

DELGANY DANCER; Comes with a nice enough pedigree. Owner bred. Yard know the time of day in bumpers but the pedigree of the favourite looks better to my eye.

JUNGLE PROSE; Has performed with credit in three bumpers this looks as stiff as any she has faced thus far and it is hard to see her improving enough to take a hand.

PRINCESS RUBY; Lovely NH pedigree with the dam being a half sister to National winner Ballabriggs. Price as a foal suggests she should be quite nice and the yard know what they are doing with these types, Suspicion is that the stamina laden pedigree could mean she finds this on the sharp side but no doubting she could a very nice sort.

ROQUE ANGEL; Half sister a couple of winners, one a bumper winner. One of two for the yard in this and she certainly merits loser inspection in the paddock.

SCOTSBROOK RHULA; Comes from a solid if hardly spectacular NH family. Well beaten at a big price on debut and hard to see her being in the shake up.

TERRAFIRMA LADY; Half sister to a bumper winner and dam placed over hurdles. In front of a ouple of these when third on debut at Fontwell. She was quite well beaten that day and although the yard has shown a bit of form lately I do feel that she will find a couple of the debutantes too strong for her.

YOYO; Half sister to the very useful Invitation Only who won a bumper before going on nicely. Changed hands for 8000EU as a 3yo so the genes might not have passed on. Typical pedigree for this yard and possibly she is the second string.


SEL; CRACKIN ROSE
EW; PRINCESS RUBY
 
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Morning

3.05 Lingfield-Absolute Scenes

Each Way @ 6-1 [Bet 365]

Having first race but Trainer been doing well with his 2-y-o fillies, and be interesting to see how she goes in the market
 
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In the 2.55 at Warwick Milan Of Crystal could be one for each way purposes. Races 18lb below last winning mark. Will strip fitter today after returning from a break last time out. Faces her favoured good ground after racing last 4 races on heavy and soft (all 5 wins came on fast going). Todays Jockey Lee Edwards knows the horse well (has won 3 times on her). Timeform stats for this small stable at Warwick over the last 5 seasons don't look bad in my opinion:

8 runs 2 wins 1 placed PL 7.33

Would be nice if Milan Of Crystal will fight it out with Stick's selection Solstalla.

Really looking forward to the NH season getting in full swing soon.
https://www.timeform.com/horse-raci...er/dave-roberts/statistics/000000047895/jumps
 
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stick said:
As its such a nice little bumper I thought we might have an old school preview;

5:15 Warwick

KAYARNAGH; Debut winner in a bumper at Stratford but as with so many failed to land a blow under a penalty at Fontwell when beaten 20 lengths with Terrefirma some way in front.

AURELIA D’OR; Went off at 9/2 when sixth in the same Fontwell race weakening when the race began in earnest. Hard to see her reversing the form of that race and the yard does not have an inspiring record in bumpers here.

COOL TARA; Has a nice enough pedigree with winners in the family but sold cheaply as a yearling and is probably best watched on debut.

CRACKIN ROSE; Lovely bumper pedigree being a full sister to Tara Rose and a half sister to Dalkingstown. Dam was also a winner over hurdles at 2 miles. One of the very best bumper yards these days and the bookie of Dickie is eyecatching. An obvious favourite.

DANCING DORIS; Sizeable gaps between runs suggest that all has not been straight forward and although a well held second on debut she did show signs of temperament. Weakened a long way out in second run in an all weather bumper and is readily passed over.

DELGANY DANCER; Comes with a nice enough pedigree. Owner bred. Yard know the time of day in bumpers but the pedigree of the favourite looks better to my eye.

JUNGLE PROSE; Has performed with credit in three bumpers this looks as stiff as any she has faced thus far and it is hard to see her improving enough to take a hand.

PRINCESS RUBY; Lovely NH pedigree with the dam being a half sister to National winner Ballabriggs. Price as a foal suggests she should be quite nice and the yard know what they are doing with these types, Suspicion is that the stamina laden pedigree could mean she finds this on the sharp side but no doubting she could a very nice sort.

ROQUE ANGEL; Half sister a couple of winners, one a bumper winner. One of two for the yard in this and she certainly merits loser inspection in the paddock.

SCOTSBROOK RHULA; Comes from a solid if hardly spectacular NH family. Well beaten at a big price on debut and hard to see her being in the shake up.

TERRAFIRMA LADY; Half sister to a bumper winner and dam placed over hurdles. In front of a ouple of these when third on debut at Fontwell. She was quite well beaten that day and although the yard has shown a bit of form lately I do feel that she will find a couple of the debutantes too strong for her.

YOYO; Half sister to the very useful Invitation Only who won a bumper before going on nicely. Changed hands for 8000EU as a 3yo so the genes might not have passed on. Typical pedigree for this yard and possibly she is the second string.


SEL; CRACKIN ROSE
EW; PRINCESS RUBY
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Great write up mate. And against my better judgement i'm taking you on with Aurelia Or. Clearly disappointed last time but i'm taking the risk that the horse is better than that and will learn from the experience. If it had been single figure odds then i probably wouldn't have bothered but at 16/1 its a nice ew price to risk a few quid.
 
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smokethedeadbadger said:
Great write up mate. And against my better judgement i'm taking you on with Aurelia Or. Clearly disappointed last time but i'm taking the risk that the horse is better than that and will learn from the experience. If it had been single figure odds then i probably wouldn't have bothered but at 16/1 its a nice ew price to risk a few quid.
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If memory serves I backed her on debut mate, I might even have tipped her, as I like the pedigree. I am a massive believer that trainers send their better bumpers to certain courses and Ms Lavelle is 0/10 here. I might have a rewatch of that debut as three of the runners are involved here today.
 
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stick said:
SOLSTALLA 7/1 Warwick 2:55
Getaway Mag is understandably favourite after getting off the mark last February on handicap debut. Only a few pounds higher here and is quite conceivably thrown in. However, 5/2 is pretty skinny for a horse that hasnt run since February. The yard are hardly flying with one winner in the last fortnight and horses running to 44% of form.
Next in is SOLSTALLA. Its a while since she won, Oct 18 in fact but was partnered that day by todays pilot Page Fuller. She was running off 103 then and is now down to 96 so has an obvious chance at the weights. I cannot find an excuse for her last run, it needs forgiving but on here seasonal debut she was second beaten 13 lengths by Jamacho. Since that run Jamacho has seen his mark increase by a whopping 30lbs, he was very obviously a blot on the handicap that day. To precis I believe the favourite is worth taking on and makes the market in this race, SOLSTALLA is a very fair price.

Really nice bumper to end the card. A race to watch with notebook in hand.
Click to expand...

You can probably be sure that the Skelton team have given Getaway Mag a wind operation everyday since she's last run to have her primed for the day.
 
smokethedeadbadger said:
Great write up mate. And against my better judgement i'm taking you on with Aurelia Or. Clearly disappointed last time but i'm taking the risk that the horse is better than that and will learn from the experience. If it had been single figure odds then i probably wouldn't have bothered but at 16/1 its a nice ew price to risk a few quid.
Click to expand...

So, rewatched the Fontwell race and the old grey matter clicked into place.
The winner that day was a horse The Don had received a big tip for, I think the WhatsApp group had the word. Aurelia Or was very well backed and I followed the money. She lost her pitch at halfway when they quickened from the opening dawdle. She was beaten very early but as she was last turning in she must have passed a couple in the straight albeit a long way behind the all the way winner.
The favourite that day was a Henderson horse ridden by a claimer and it pulled its chances away on the first circuit. Odddog tipped the third Terrafirma Lady who looked a nice enough type finishing third.
On watching the rerun the one that had to go in the notebook ran second, a mare of FOB's and a click on future form reveals that it won next time up at Kelso.
 
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stick said:
So, rewatched the Fontwell race and the old grey matter clicked into place.
The winner that day was a horse The Don had received a big tip for, I think the WhatsApp group had the word. Aurelia Or was very well backed and I followed the money. She lost her pitch at halfway when they quickened from the opening dawdle. She was beaten very early but as she was last turning in she must have passed a couple in the straight albeit a long way behind the all the way winner.
The favourite that day was a Henderson horse ridden by a claimer and it pulled its chances away on the first circuit. Odddog tipped the third Terrafirma Lady who looked a nice enough type finishing third.
On watching the rerun the one that had to go in the notebook ran second, a mare of FOB's and a click on future form reveals that it won next time up at Kelso.
Click to expand...


All Clenched Up? Owned by the esteemed trainer and probably now worth all the effort with her.
 
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In the 1.45 runs Conchita who was fancied when last seen 530 days ago. There is some market support for her today at a big price and its often a good sign when Tom O'Brien is booked for the Michael Roberts yard. Will have a small each way on Conchita.
 
In the 4.45 at Warwick Beau De Brizais looks interesting racing of a workable mark and proven over the distance. Michael Nolan knows the horse well and there should be no ground worrys.
 
Daranova 1 15 w , owner thinks it will run a good race , make of that what you will, 14 last night 7s now , hopefully drift before off
 
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In the opener at Listowel Matchless is odds-on for Aidan and will probably be the 99th Galileo 2YO to be 4th on debut before winning next time out. 4/6 doesn't appeal though. Joseph's Larado has been nibbled and he made his unplaced debut behind Lucky Vega over 6F before being dropped to 5F and blinkered when 5th next time. The blinkers are off and he's upped to 7F now and I don't like so much fiddling about with a horse so early in his career. Dermot Weld introduces a Lope De Vega colt Moktaffy for Hamdan Al Maktoum and he would not need to be a superstar to win here but market signs do not look positive with him sitting at 10/1.

I was interested in Laelaps from the Harrington yard. The son of Exceed And Excel was terrible on debut in June when favourite in a 5F race won by Chief Little Hawk. He just seemed out of place in the sprint race and was last of the eight runners. Unsurprisingly he wasn't wanted next time and went off 50/1 but he ran a much better race, at almost three stones better on Racing Post figures. He was upped to 7F that day and it seemed that the jockey thought he was still in a 5F race as he pushed him up early and went on with another horse to pull a few lengths clear of the pack. The plan started to unravel as they hit the 2F pole and Laelaps started to come under pressure and by the 1F mark he had been claimed and tired to finish in 4th place. The ground was pretty grim that day though and the soft/heavy description was reflected in a time about 7 seconds slower than standard. I thought it was a much improved show from Laelaps and with the ground Good today I felt a tiny interest at 9/1 against the odds on shot might be worth chancing in the hope that he isn't ridden as aggressively today and can last better in the closing stages. The favourite's RPR of 79 is beatable but he will probably improve and the Harrington horse needs to come forward but I just thought there was a glimmer of ability there last time and 9/1 is a low risk price.

1.35 Listowel Laelaps 9/1 was a speculative pick against the "Good Thing"
 
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LordGyllene said:
In the 1.45 runs Conchita who was fancied when last seen 530 days ago. There is some market support for her today at a big price and its often a good sign when Tom O'Brien is booked for the Michael Roberts yard. Will have a small each way on Conchita.
Click to expand...

Well, that wasn't the Wurst.
 
Close but yet again no cigar. Laelaps ran a belter and had every chance but went down half a length to the favourite in a driving finish. CSF paid £10.10 and he proved to be the one for that bet, rather than Joseph's Larado, who went off pretty skinny as the 5/2 second favourite.
 
Be interesting to see SOLSTALLA in the preliminaries if only to count the number of legs!

In the bumper the EW that was 10/1 when I posted last night is now around the 3/1 mark. Conversely the win horse has drifted from 5/2 to 11/2 so maybe not too muh is expected on debut. As the wife always likes to tell me "the horse does not know its odds".
 
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Grendel said:
Close but yet again no cigar. Laelaps ran a belter and had every chance but went down half a length to the favourite in a driving finish. CSF paid £10.10 and he proved to be the one for that bet, rather than Joseph's Larado, who went off pretty skinny as the 5/2 second favourite.
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Yep, that was bad luck, Grendel, just could not get to the favourite........
 
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